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Original Title: Does Biden Have Nearly an 89% Chance of Winning? Kitco Gold Poll: Both scenarios in the US general election are optimistic. Gold and gold markets are the least willing to see this situation.
FX168 Financial News (North America) News. Ahead of the US general election next Tuesday (November 3) local time, overall gold market sentiment remains bullish next week; However, Kitco News released the latest gold survey results on Friday (Oct 30). It shows that retail investors are much more cautious as election uncertainty remains widespread.
Among Wall Street analysts, many have set their sights on long-term fundamentals and the need for more stimulus measures as the new corona pneumonia epidemic continues to plague the world economy after next Tuesday’s election.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “I think 48 hours after the election, when the epidemic is back in the spotlight, you will seeGold priceGo higher. Regardless of who is elected, this virus will continue to damage the economy, and economic decline will mean that the government must take action. At this point, the US elections will not change the rules of the game, nor will it change the fundamentals of the strong gold market. “
This week, 18 analysts participated in the survey. A total of 12 analysts (67%) expect gold prices to rise next week; at the same time, 2 analysts (11%) believe that gold prices will fall and 4 analysts (22%) believe that gold prices will trade sideways.
Interestingly, compared to Wall Street, ordinary investors are much less bullish on gold. The gold market continues to struggle to attract the interest of retail investors and the participation rate in Kitco News’ weekly online survey remains relatively low, at the lowest level in nearly a year.
Last week, a total of 1,138 people participated in the online survey. Among these people, 588 (52%) said they are bullish on gold next week. Another 380 people (33%) said they were bearish and 179 people (15%) were neutral.
(Source: Kitco)
In the past week, more than 61% of retail investors were bullish on gold, while market analysts were mixed. 41% of analysts believed the gold market was bullish or neutral. As the price of gold fell below $ 1,900 an ounce, the gold market suffered a strong sell-off in the middle of the week. COMEX December Gold Futures closed 0.6% higher at $ 1,799.90 an ounce, and fell 0.8% in October.
Looking ahead, many analysts expect gold prices to rise, because Democrats appear to control Congress and the White House. According to the political authorities, the Democratic presidential candidate Biden has almost an 89% chance of winning the election.
At the same time, the Democratic Party is expected to win 52 seats in the much-watched Senate elections. Many experts call this choice a “blue wave.”
Analysts noted that this situation is more beneficial for gold, because it means that the government will have the ability to implement significant fiscal stimulus measures to support the troubled economy.
Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that in this case, he expects gold prices to rise slightly.
He said: “I hope that Biden will eventually enter the White House, and the Democrats will eventually control the Senate. This outcome will ensure huge spending and deficits appear for the foreseeable future, and will support the multi-year rise of gold while the dollar is suppressed. , said. Say.
However, analysts have also seen another situation that can benefit gold, that is, the two sides are even.
Kitco.com Senior Technical Analyst Jim Wyckoff said that with next week’s controversial US elections and possible uncertainty surrounding the elections, safe haven demand will flood the gold market.
Adrian Day, president of asset management firm Adrian Day Asset Management, said he believes there is only one scenario where gold prices will fall next week.
“The last thing the gold market wants to see is Biden being elected president, but the Republicans still hold tightly to the Senate and House of Representatives. This is an unlikely outcome,” he said. “We expect the price of gold to go up next week.”
Day added that many people have been on the sidelines, waiting for the results of the American elections, so the market may see a wave of buying at the end of this risky event.
However, as the price of gold is testing key support levels, some analysts continue to see further technical weakness in gold. Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures, said he is bullish on the performance of gold next week, but the price of gold is trading below the 100-day moving average and needs to maintain support at the $ 1,860 level. .
Nicholas Frappell, global general manager at ABC Bullion, said he expects the price of gold to test the support level near $ 1,841 next week as the dollar finds support at important trend lines.
“The weakness of gold is attributed to the rise of the US dollar, and the rise of the US dollar is attributed to the increase in new cases of coronavirus in Europe and the United States. It is possible; however, the US dollar also (again) continues the trend in 2011. Look for support online, “he said.
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