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Original title: Xinjiang, which accounts for 80% of the country’s production, has been in short supply for many yearscottonDo you get it?
Recently, H&M, Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, Converse and other foreign brands boycotted Xinjiang cotton and sparked public outrage.
We should know that Chinese cotton occupies a fundamental position in the world market, and Xinjiang cotton is blessed with natural conditions, good quality and high production, and its supply exceeds demand throughout the year.
Domestic cotton is not enough! Xinjiang’s cotton production accounts for almost 80% of the country
As the largest manufacturing country, China has always been at the forefront of the world in terms of cotton production.
Currently, the world’s average annual cotton production is around 25 million tons, of which China, India and the United States account for more than 60%. At the same time, China is also the world’s largest textile producer. In addition to the export of its own final cotton spinning products, many intermediate cotton spinning products are exported to third countries.
According to data from China Grain Reserve Management Group, as the world’s largest cotton consumer and the second largest cotton producer, my country’s cotton production in 2020/2021 will be around 5.95 million tons, with a demand total of about 7.8 million tons and an annual gap. of about 1.85 million tons. Among them, Xinjiang’s cotton production is 5.2 million tons, accounting for about 87% of domestic production and about 67% of domestic consumption.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the Xinjiang cotton area will have more favorable weather conditions, with fewer diseases and insect pests, and good cotton growth. The cotton yield per unit area is 2,062.7 kg / ha (137.5 kg / ha). mu), an increase of 93.8 kg / ha over the previous year (6.3 kg / mu), an increase of 4.8%. It is worth mentioning that Xinjiang’s “special product” is long staple cotton, also called sea island cotton. This cotton fiber is long and high-strength, and the quilt is warm, breathable, and comfortable. It is in short supply for many years, and its quality is truly the best in the world.
According to data from the China International Finance Corporation, major overseas cotton producing countries will reduce production in 2020/2021 and ending stocks will decline. The ratio of stocks to sales of domestic and world cotton has declined by approximately 14% year-on-year. -year. It is estimated that there will be a global gap of around 700,000 tons of cotton. The widening gap between production and demand is expected to support to some extent the further increase in cotton prices after the shocks.
Regarding the annual textile consumption, the cotton researcher at Zhongyuan Futures said that China’s domestic consumption most likely shows a stable state. As for China’s textile exports, the third and fourth quarters of 2021 still need to pay attention to the epidemic situation in the United States and Europe, and vaccination protection.
For a 100 billion yuan industry, Xinjiang cotton is very good!
The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document in 2020 saying that in order to implement the spirit of Central Document No. 1, approved by the State Council, the indicative price policy for cotton will be improved in Xinjiang from 2020. The Indicative price level is 18,600 yuan per ton, to be assessed every three years. Adjust the target price level according to the situation. Calculated at this price, Xinjiang cotton is already a 100 billion yuan industry. This also means that the cotton industry is one of the important industries in the Xinjiang economy.
According to data from Tianyancha professional version, there are currently more than 130,000 “cotton” related companies in business in my country. In terms of geographical distribution, Xinjiang currently has more than 14,000 cotton-related companies, representing 10.28% of the country’s total. Among them, there will be more than 3,900 new cotton-related companies in 2020 (company-wide), with an annual growth rate of 26.7%, and the annual registration volume has increased by 136% compared with 2019.
At present, there are almost 77,000 cotton planting companies in China, and Xinjiang has more than 8,700, accounting for 11.45% of the country. In 2020, there will be almost 3,000 new companies related to cotton planting, and the annual registration volume has increased by 188% compared to 2019. In addition, Xinjiang currently has more than 130,000 textile companies whose names or trade fields contain “textiles” . Among them, 82.5% is distributed in the wholesale and retail industries, 4.3% in the manufacturing industry and 3.9% in the leasing and business services industries.
Businesses are actively involved and national cotton futures are very active
The birth of cotton futures aims to serve industrial enterprises with risk management tools, enhance the endurance and strength of the entire industry, and promote industry maturity.
From a data point of view, the scale of the cotton futures market has continued to expand, from an average of around 20,000 lots in 2004 to more than 500,000 lots in 2020. Among them, in 2011, the annual trade volume cotton futures reached 139 million hands, ranking second in global commodity futures trading volume. At the same time, since 2014, my country has started implementing the cotton indicative price reform, the degree of commercialization of cotton has continued to increase, and the activity of cotton futures has increased further. In the first half of 2020, cotton futures traded a total of 54,413 million lots, with an average daily turnover of 465,100 lots, a year-on-year increase of 115.24%; Average daily holdings of 591,300 lots, an increase of 61.99% annually. -in the year.
In addition, cotton-related companies are actively involved in the futures market. In 2019, the number of cotton futures corporate clients exceeded 6,200 and the percentage of positions held exceeded 50% throughout the year. In 2019/2020 alone, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts for cotton futures was 33,980, equivalent to 1,427 million tons of cotton, which represents approximately 1/4 of my country’s annual cotton production.
The planting area and production of the main international cotton producing areas are expected to decline
It should be noted that the rapid rise in cotton prices in early February was partly affected by the anticipated decline in cotton production and area planted.
According to the Indian Cotton Association estimate late last year, India’s cotton production in 2020/2021 is expected to fall 1.1% yoy to 6.05 million tonnes. According to forecast data from the China Cotton Information Network, China’s cotton planting area in 2021/2022 is expected to be 2.89 million hectares, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year; Production is expected to be around 5.85 million tonnes, a 7% year-on-year decline. In addition, according to the latest estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, cotton production in the United States in 2020/2021 will be approximately 3,255 million tons, almost 25% less year-on-year. This year, due to lack of irrigation water, then excessive rains, locust and cotton boll pests and other factors in Pakistan, production plummeted by almost 30%.
In terms of planting area, India’s harvested area in 2020/2021 is approximately 12.64 million hectares, which is expected to decrease slightly from year to year; West Texas, the main cotton-producing region of the United States, is affected by the drought and stormy weather brought on by the Atlantic hurricane season. The abandonment rate for American cotton is as high as 30%. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Farmers predicts that the total area of cotton planted in Brazil in 2020/2021 will be 1,356 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The yield is expected to decline by 1.5%, and the production is expected to fall by 17% to 2.402 million tonnes.
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