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Original title: The differences still exist, the stalemate in the trade negotiations between Britain and Europe is difficult to break
According to foreign media reports, EU and UK trade representatives have continued face-to-face consultations in Brussels recently, hoping to reach an agreement on trade relations between the two parties after the UK’s “Brexit.” United at the last minute. However, officials from both sides said on the 3rd that the current consultation has yet to make a breakthrough. The outside world hopes that, under the double pressure of short time and the rebound of the epidemic, the United Kingdom and Europe can reach an agreement as soon as possible to avoid further serious economic shocks.
Differences in the three main areas are difficult to resolve
According to Agence France-Presse, EU spokesman Daniel Ferry denied that British media reported that Britain and Europe had resolved the thorny fisheries dispute. Ferri said the two sides have yet to find a way to resolve their differences in fishing. Ferri said the teams of trade representatives from the two sides will meet in Brussels. Ferri said the two sides are trying to reach an agreement, but it has not yet been achieved and there is still a lot of work to do.
The UK and the EU are reported to have yet to make key progress on the three key issues that differ, namely the fisheries issue, the issue of ensuring a “level playing field” in the EU market and the issue of dispute settlement mechanisms.
The European Union still insists that its fishermen can still enter British waters to fish after Brexit. The UK hopes to negotiate EU fishermen’s fishing quotas annually, but the EU is opposed. A spokesman for British Prime Minister Johnson said that only if the EU accepts the reality that the UK will fully control its access to the waters can negotiations move forward. The spokesman said Britain and the EU still have big differences on some difficult issues, and there is still a lot of work to do to overcome these differences.
According to a Reuters report, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Covenney said the time for the UK and Europe to reach an agreement is too short, but the two sides have not made enough progress to maintain fair competition. . Covinni said that if the two sides cannot formulate a set of fair competition rules and agree on a governance framework to resolve disputes, then an agreement is impossible.
Due to the second wave of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, Brussels is implementing strict measures to prevent the epidemic, and people, including European Commission staff, are strongly advised to work from home. At this time, representatives of the UK and the EU also insisted on having face-to-face talks, which shows the key and urgency of the consultation.
According to the British “Times” report, Britain and the European Union are expected to launch a new round of trade negotiations this weekend. Currently, the UK and the EU have a very limited time to reach a trade agreement. At the end of this year, the UK will end the “Brexit” transition period. If the two sides reach a trade deal, they still need to allow time for the legislature to pass it. Therefore, it is considered that the agreement should be reached before mid-November.
The European business community hopes that, under the pressure of tight weather and the rebound of the new corona pneumonia epidemic, the UK and the European Union can finally reach an agreement to avoid a major impact on both sides in the fields. of commerce, energy and aviation.
The British economy may hit bottom again
British Prime Minister Johnson announced on October 31 that, in view of the increasingly severe situation of the new corona epidemic, he planned to implement a four-week large-scale ‘footless’ measure again in England from the 5th. of November. British economists worry that large-scale lockdown measures could cause the British economy to experience a “second dip.”
Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the UK’s economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will change from a previously expected 3.6% increase to a 2.4% contraction.
Representatives of British business groups believe that a new round of large-scale lockdown will put more companies in trouble. Caroline Fairbairn, director of the Federation of British Industry, said: “The second total lockdown marks the beginning of a cold winter.”
The British Think Tank Government Research Institute noted that even if the UK and the European Union reach a deal, the British government and the business community are still not ready to deal with formal “Brexit.” Whether a deal is reached or not, chaos in January next year will be inevitable.
Market analysis believes that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to cut already low interest rates and will rely on quantitative easing to cope with the next economic downturn again. Taking into account the new lockdown policy and the uncertainty of the future relationship between the UK and the EU, the central bank is expected to announce the purchase of another £ 100 billion of bonds in the first half of 2021 after the rate meeting. of interest this week.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its economic growth forecast for the UK this year and next. The UK economy is expected to contract by 10.4% this year, which is less than the previously expected contraction of 9.8%; The UK economy is expected to recover by 5.7% next year, which is lower than previous estimates. 5.9%.
The IMF warned that the uncertainty associated with Britain’s “Brexit”, rising unemployment and pressure on business performance are collectively putting downward pressure on the economy. IMF President Kristalina Georgieva said fear of a rebound in the epidemic in early October has become a reality, prompting the IMF to lower its expectations for economic growth in the UK. Georgieva affirmed the response measures taken by the Bank of England to support the economy and said that relevant support policies must continue throughout the epidemic and the “Brexit” period.
The EU economic recovery can be reversed
The latest data shows that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU and the eurozone increased by 12.1% and 12.7% respectively in the third quarter of this year. The economy of Germany, Europe’s largest economy, also rebounded significantly, with GDP increasing by 8.2% in the third quarter. However, the European Union and Eurozone economies in the third quarter still fell 3.9% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, and the German economy fell 4.3% year-on-year, indicating that the The economy has not yet recovered to its pre-epidemic level.
At the same time, analysts noted that with the gradual recovery of economic activities, a strong rebound in the euro zone economy is expected in the third quarter. The new corona pneumonia epidemic is making a serious recovery. If European countries continue to strengthen measures to prevent the epidemic, the European economic outlook may risk a significant deterioration.
The president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde, recently declared that the increase in new cases of crowns and related anti-epidemic measures are affecting economic activities, and the economic growth rate of the euro zone is likely to become negative again in the fourth trimester. On October 29, the European Central Bank decided to keep the key interest rate level in the euro zone unchanged and at the same time signaled that it could take further action at the next meeting. Economists predict that the European Central Bank may increase monetary easing in December, the main way is to extend and expand its bond purchase program.
