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Original title: The powder keg at the crossroads of Europe and Asia detonated again, or would it damage the international oil and gas market?
The “Caucasus powder keg” was reignited, and this time it was the old enemies of Armenia and Azerbaijan who fought again.
The armed conflict surrounding the Naka region has entered its third day since it broke out on the 27th. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and leading the launch of a military offensive. At present, Armenia has declared a general military mobilization and Azerbaijan has declared a state of war.
According to the latest public data, nearly a hundred people have died during the three-day battle. There are signs of expansion of the war. On the 29th, the Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman stated that a Turkish Air Force fighter entered Armenian airspace on the same day and shot down an Armenian fighter, but Azerbaijan and Turkey denied this.
In an interview with a China Business News reporter, Yang Jin, deputy director of the Central Asia Department of the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the current conflict between the two countries is still raging. level of border conflicts, and that large-scale war has not yet broken out and turned the tide. The status quo also does not interest Russia, which has significant influence in the region. However, Yang Jin also said that at this stage, it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the war spreading.
The old enemies turn on again
The resurgence of gun smoke has reawakened global attention to the Caucasus. This is the crossroads of Europe and Asia. For thousands of years, multiple civilizations and cultures have coexisted here like a canine tooth.
Most of the residents of the Naka region are Armenians, but they were included in Azerbaijan during the Soviet period. In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, which eventually led to conflicts between Azerbaijanis and Armenians there. Subsequently, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for the Battle of Naqqa. Armenia occupied part of the Azerbaijani territory in Nakka and its surroundings. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, but the two countries have remained in a state of hostility over the Naka issue, and armed conflicts still occur from time to time.
In recent years, Azerbaijan, whose economic strength has grown, has been increasingly willing to take control of Naka, while Armenia wants to maintain the status quo.
Yang Jin told CBN reporters that the current new corona pneumonia epidemic is also a major cause of conflict. He said that the new corona pneumonia epidemic has had a huge impact on the world economy, and the Caucasus countries are certainly not immune. Your economic data this year will be “ugly.”
Yang Jin introduced that Azerbaijanis said that after the 1994 war, about 1 million Naca refugees entered the mainland of Azerbaijan. Most of these people organized in some big cities like Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The resettlement environment was poor. These people have long requested the government sent troops to regain the lost land of Nakka.
When the economic situation is better, their demands are more moderate. But when today’s economic and social life faces great difficulties, their voices have gotten quite loud. “The enormous pressure on the government is also one of the important factors in the escalation of the conflict,” Yang Jin said.
Regarding the judgment on the future direction of the war, Yang Jin said that the military struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains a border conflict, and a full-scale war is unlikely to break out. The international community is not only unwilling to make the war worse, it is also not in the interests of Russia. Because Russia has military bases in Armenia and the religious beliefs of the two countries are similar, Russia is often considered an ally of Armenia.
Yang Jin told the CBN reporter that the current situation in Russia has left it too late to deal with Armenia’s problems. In recent years, Russia and Azerbaijan have also significantly improved their bilateral relations, but in this conflict
Azerbaijan is considered to be clearly backed by Turkey. Turkish President Erdogan publicly supported Azerbaijan on the 28th.
The place where oil and gas pipelines must pass
The conflict in the Caucasus countries has already produced side effects. On the 29th, the Turkish lira hit a record low against the US dollar. Since the beginning of this year, the Turkish lira has depreciated nearly 25%.
The reason for the sharp fall of the Turkish lira is that investors fear that due to Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan, Turkey will eventually be embroiled in the regional conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, on the 30th, due to the impact of the Turkish government’s tax cut plan, the Turkish lira stopped falling and recovered.
In addition, some analysts believe that if the conflict escalates again, it may also have an impact on the international market. The South Caucasus has always been an important channel for the transportation of oil and gas to the international market. Azerbaijan is a major oil producer in the region and a major producer of natural gas, both of which account for more than 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports. There are three crude export pipelines in Azerbaijan: the BTC pipeline in Azerbaijan is only about 16 kilometers from the border with Armenia and in a few weeks Azerbaijan will start to send natural gas to the European Union.
Yang Jin told China Business News that oil and gas pipelines have not been greatly affected. However, if the conflict intensifies, as a strategic objective, it is not ruled out that it could become a target of attack, which will trigger a greater reaction from the international community, since this natural gas is an important source of natural gas in many countries of the Central and Eastern Europe.
Armenian President Sarkisian also stated in an interview on the 29th: “It is foolish to say that the target of the Armenians is the international Azerbaijan oil and gas pipeline.”
Some international analysts also said that Armenia has never attacked Azerbaijan’s oil and gas pipelines during the nearly 30 years of conflict between the two countries. These pipelines should not be easily attacked.
Sina Statement: This news is a reprint by Sina Cooperative Media. Posting this article on Sina.com for the purpose of conveying more information does not mean that I agree with their views or confirm their description. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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