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Original Title: Decision Analysis: Prepare For Market Frenzy! Sudden News Came Before Trump Biden’s Head-On Showdown, The Dollar Just Soared In The Short Term
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) reported on Tuesday (September 29) Asian markets, Asian stocks mainly rose, following the rise of US stocks yesterday, investors remained cautious ahead of the US presidential election debate .
At the close, the Nikkei 225 index closed 0.15% higher; Australia’s ASX200 Index Closed Almost Unchanged; South Korea’s KOSPI index closed 0.86% higher. Stocks rebounded across the board.
Although the new corona epidemic continues to cause serious damage to the global economy and raises concerns about high valuations, Asian markets have been buoyed by positive signs of China’s economic recovery.
Ashmore’s Jan Dehn is bracing for crazy market performance in the coming months. “The data is no longer improving, it is starting to get flat and the political noise before the US elections has started to get a bit complicated.”
“Also, market prices are already high because the stock market has exploded since March,” he said.
Looking at this trading day, all eyes are on the first debate of the US presidential election. Biden of the Democratic Party and Trump of the Republican Party will meet later that day (Wednesday 09:00 Beijing time) at Cleveland, Ohio. Case Western Reserve University is held and is expected to last 90 minutes.
The first general election debate will focus on six topics, including Trump and Biden’s past experiences, the new corona virus pandemic, the appointment of Supreme Court justices, racial discrimination, the economy and elections. honest. The 6 main topics correspond to 6 discussion sessions and each session lasts 15 minutes. In each session, the host will first ask questions about the topic of discussion. Trump and Biden have 2 minutes each to respond, and the remaining time is for a free debate.
There are only about five weeks left before the US presidential election on November 3. The gap between the two people’s settings suggests that the November elections will be in a state of anxiety, similar to that of 2016. In the end, it is not ruled out that the Democratic Party won the most votes, but the Republican Party won the White House. It should be noted that the change in voting methods during the epidemic is likely to affect the final results of the elections.
It is worth mentioning that Russia Today (RT) released the latest news on September 29 that British opposition Labor Party MP Chris Bryant nominated US Democratic presidential candidate Biden to win the Nobel Peace Prize with the argument that Biden is sweeping America. The violent protests eased political tensions.
Bryant said on 28 local time: “When American cities are engulfed in flames and people attack each other, it is Joe’s influence that calms people down.” “When other people resort to violence to solve problems, he thinks that words are the most important thing. Strong power, because guns can stop a heart, but the right words can change the hearts of many people and the hearts of many people. it can change the world. “
According to the report, Biden’s nomination appeared the day before the first debate of the 2020 US presidential candidate. At this time, Biden’s rival and current US president, Trump, has been nominated for the three Nobel Peace Prize times this year.
In the currency market, the US dollar has stabilized against a basket of currencies, and traders are watching the first debate of the US presidential candidate and the progress of the US stimulus plan.
Daisuke Karakama, chief market analyst at Mizuho Bank, said: “If the debate puts Trump on the defensive and Biden continues to lead, I think this can make everyone sell their dollars.”
“Since mid-September, the US dollar market has been bottoming out across the board. The question is what kind of trend will appear in October,” Karakama said, adding that market participants will also pay close attention to the news of the stimulus plan.
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Pelosi, said Sunday that there is still the possibility of reaching a new rescue plan with the White House. Pelosi further stated Monday that Democratic lawmakers will announce a new $ 2.2 trillion version of the COVID-19 assistance bill, which she said is a compromise measure to reduce the cost of financial assistance.
In terms of commodities, spot gold fluctuated around the 1880 mark during the day, and once peaked at $ 1,887 during the day. At the same time, silver was slightly under pressure after yesterday’s rise.
UBS (UBS) said it advises its clients to hold safe haven assets, such as gold, as stock market volatility may increase. The bank believes that the outcome of the general election may be controversial and may not be able to produce a definitive result that day, which means great uncertainty for US stocks.
UBS believes that gold prices will continue to rise due to the support of the Fed’s policy. “Under the current circumstances, the Fed will continue to maintain a flexible state.”
Intraday approach and weather vane:
22:00: Consumer Confidence Index from the US September Advisory Chamber.
9:15 PM: New York Fed Chairman Williams speaks at the 2020 US Treasury Market Online Conference
9:30 PM: Philadelphia Fed Chairman Hacker delivers a speech at a forum on artificial intelligence
Analysis of the main currencies:
EUR: EUR / USD rallied from yesterday’s recent low and is currently trading around 1.1680. Technically, the MACD green kinetic energy column on the daily chart gradually decreased, the RSI indicator remained below the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator remained stable near the oversold level, indicating that the stock could weaken or swing even more. Initial short-term support is at 1.1610 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1700.
GBP: The pound / dollar tumbled lower from yesterday above 1.29 and is currently trading near 1.2850. From a technical perspective, the MACD daily green kinetic energy column gradually weakened, the RSI indicator hovered around the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator rebounded from the oversold level, suggesting that the bearish price momentum has slowed. and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. Initial short-term support is at 1.2800 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.2900.
Japanese Yen: USD / JPY continues the volatile bullish momentum of the previous days and is currently trading around 105.60. From a technical perspective, the MACD red kinetic energy column on the daily chart gradually expanded, the RSI indicator hovered around 50, and the KDJ indicator broke the 50 level, which is expected to rise further. Initial short-term support is at 105.00 and initial resistance is at 106.00.
Revision: TIER
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