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Original Title: Decision Analysis: Gold 1880 Can’t Understand Trump’s Three Nudges in a Row
FX168 Financial News (London) News November 12 15:00 to 22:30 Thursday (November 12) European market afternoon,Dollar indexIt fell back, once dropped below the 93 mark, but then rebounded; spot gold rose but fell after hitting $ 1.79.83 an ounce.
US labor market data that investors are paying attention to during the day shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 703,000, hitting the lowest level since March, but still higher than the peak during the 2008/09 financial crisis. Another 298,000 people applied for “epidemic unemployment benefits.”
According to statistics, a total of more than 21 million Americans are joining different unemployment assistance programs. Analysts and commentators said this highlights the still weak job market in the United States, warning that the increase in confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection continues to hurt the economy.
What is also concerning is that the epidemic unemployment assistance plan will expire on December 31 and the demand for a new round of stimulus policies is increasingly urgent. Heidi Shierholz, chief economist at the US Department of Labor, explained that the next president and his team face related problems.
Global market enthusiasm for the main positive news from Monday’s new corona vaccine weakened. Risk assets, led by equities, have fallen, while safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and Japanese yen appear to be more stable. Overall, market volatility has decreased dramatically since the beginning of the week. Investors are calming down, waiting for clear new news about the new corona epidemic and the political situation in the United States.
European countries have warned that the new corona vaccine that may not be available until next year will not help their current economic difficulties. The UK Statistics Office released the latest GDP data on Thursday. Data showed that the British economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter, but it was less than expected, causing economists to worry about the outlook ahead. short and medium term of the British economy. Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA Europe, warned that the UK economy is in trouble again: “We are now back in a state of national lockdown. Until the vaccine is widely used, the recovery will remain stagnant. virus will be a big challenge. “
German Finance Minister Scholz recently claimed that the lockdown that began in November will jeopardize economic growth in the fourth quarter, but the fiscal policy being implemented should limit the economic impact of the second wave of the epidemic.
In the US political situation, US President Trump posted on social media Twitter early at twelfth local time, bombarding North Carolina, where the vote count has not yet ended.
Trump wrote on Twitter: “It took enough time! What’s taking North Carolina so long to do? Are they looking for more votes to manipulate (the voting results)? Now we count the votes. Georgia will be taken. Pennsylvania and Michigan will not allow let our poll watchers into the counting room. It’s illegal! “
Additionally, Trump also reposted a tweet posted by the US media “KDKA” with accompanying text: “Jim is the best!” Said “KDKA” in the tweet, “West Virginia Governor Jim Justy If he refused to admit that Biden won the presidential election. “
Trump subsequently republished the report that “Biden’s lead in Arizona is shrinking” and wrote: “From 200,000 votes to less than 10,000 votes. If we can audit all the votes, we will also relax.” Win Arizona! “
Some current analyzes fear that the delay in the outcome of the US elections will increase uncertainty in the future. CNBC’s Jim Cramer said that a possible constitutional crisis in the United States will trigger a sell-off of US stocks. He said that if Trump is unwilling to admit defeat and cannot smoothly transfer power, a “constitutional crisis” could erupt in the United States. The uncertainty of the US elections is likely to have a very large impact on the market.
US stocks mixed after opening day. The S&P 500 Index fell 11.00 points, or 0.31%, to 3,561.69 points; the Nasdaq index opened 18.20 points, or 0.15%, at 11,804.68 points; the Dow Jones Index fell 152.00 points, or 0.52%, to 29,245.67 points.
Analysis of the main currencies:
EUR: At the start of the European market on Thursday, the EUR / USD opened at 1.1769. It rose during European time, peaking at 1.1823. Initial short-term exchange rate support is at 1.1735 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1872.
GBP: At the start of the European market on Thursday, GBP / USD opened at 1.3171. European time fluctuated up and down, once falling to 1.3131, but then rebounding, almost flattening the drop. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 1.3115, and initial resistance can be seen at 1.3287.
Yen: In early European trading on Thursday, USD / JPY opened at 105.27. It moved within a narrow range during European time and is currently at 105.21. The initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 105.05 and the initial resistance can be seen at 105.73.
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