[ad_1]
Original title: Decision analysis:GBP“Riot” 100-point Brexit, big news, “terror data” drives the market, continue to focus on the stimulus bill
FX168 Financial News (London) News October 14 15:00 to 22:30 Wednesday (October 14) European market afternoon,Dollar indexIt fell, the lowest reached 93.61, before rebounding from the 93.53 low, the highest reached 93.70; spot gold fell, the lowest at $ 1,903.78 / ounce.
During the European era, the advance of Brexit again attracted attention. British Prime Minister Johnson declared that there is no need to continue negotiations if there is no fundamental change in the EU’s position, and the UK will prepare for a no-deal Brexit.
The Guardian commented that before the two sides agree to a compromise, trade negotiations generally involve threats to withdraw from the negotiations and related dire predictions. This morning local time, Johnson said in a televised speech that if there is no “fundamental change” in the EU’s approach, no deal will be reached.
However, threats can only work if people take them seriously as threats, and Johnson’s remarks do not appear to be taken as a sincere expression of willingness to abandon the negotiations. A journalist asked him if the negotiations had ended. Johnson refused to admit it directly and there was still room for changes in his speech.
If the currency market believes that Johnson has given up hope of reaching a deal, the pound will continue to depreciate significantly (since 2016, it has occurred repeatedly at the critical moment of the Brexit drama). but it is not the truth. One analyst told Bloomberg: “Market participants believe that Johnson’s comments are primarily political gestures at this stage.”
GBP / USD fell for a while, from 1.2962 to 1.2861 at the lowest point, but then it rebounded and is currently climbing above 1.29.
Subsequently, the spokesman for the British prime minister used the words “trade negotiations are over”, which are stronger than the prime minister himself. He blamed the fact that the EU side ended the negotiations. “If the EU does not change its position, trade negotiations are meaningless. The EU effectively ended trade negotiations yesterday.” But he also announced that the EU’s chief negotiator, Barnier, should come to London next week. . The spokesperson noted that both sides are prepared to discuss all issues based on the legal text, or they will discuss the real situation of travel and transportation.
From a broader market perspective, risk sentiment was boosted by Trump’s latest statement on the stimulus bill yesterday, and European equity markets rebounded from yesterday’s strong sell-off.
As of this release (10:23 PM Beijing time), the UK FTSE 100 Index, German DAX Index and French CAC Index increased 1.67%, 1.57% and 2.18% respectively.
The US stock market also rallied immediately after opening. The Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq indices were up 1.01%, 0.82% and 1.12%.
A batch of US economic data released today was better than expected, which also helped boost risk sentiment. In particular, US retail sales data reports, known as “terror data,” noted that US retail sales in September grew at the fastest rate in three months, which was better than Analyst expectations, indicating that despite the growing number of downside Factors, but consumer spending in the third quarter ended with a rebound.
Domestic investors will pay close attention to the upbeat news released by many large companies, including Boeing and Pfizer, and will pay attention to the different signals sent by US lawmakers to promote a new round of economic stimulus plan.
Analysis of the main currencies:
EUR: At the start of the European market on Wednesday, the EUR / USD opened at 1.1703. It rose during European time, peaking at 1.1746. Initial short-term exchange rate support is at 1.1677 and initial resistance can be seen at 1.1787.
GBP: At the start of the European market on Wednesday, GBP / USD opened at 1.2916. It fell sharply during European time, hitting a low of 1.2861, but then rebounded and has now risen above 1.29. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 1.2848, and initial resistance can be seen at 1.2988.
Yen: The US dollar / yen opened at 105.30 at the beginning of the European market on Wednesday. The European time fluctuated up and down, the lowest reached 105.19, the highest 105.41. Initial short-term support for the exchange rate is at 105.15 and initial resistance can be seen at 105.58.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
