Data | 6 young people raise 1 old man, 5 years later, 300 million old people in China will celebrate the Double Ninth Festival_Sina Technology_Sina.com

Original title: Data | 6 young people raise 1 old man, 300 million old people in China will celebrate the Double Ninth Festival in 5 years

Edit | Chen Chen

Chongyang Festival every year, now it is Chongyang Festival again. In the past 30 years, the dependency ratio of China’s elderly population has increased from less than 9% to 17.8%, which means that every 100 people of working age now has to support about 17.8 people greater. On October 23, the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued forecast data indicating that during the period of the “XIV Five-Year Plan”, China’s elderly population will exceed 300 million and go from mild to moderate aging.

The elderly population has increased by almost 6% in 20 years

Already 20 years ago, the “aging” of Chinese society had already begun to emerge. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2000, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in China reached 7.0%, and an elderly structure was initially formed, and China began to enter a society aged.

As of 2019, the proportion of the Chinese population aged 65 and over has reached 12.57%, which is 5.57% more than in 2000. According to Yao Yudong, Director of the Institute of Finance of the Central Bank, China it will reach the social standard of super-aging around 2035 (more than 5% of people over 80 years old).

In terms of regions, according to a 2013 study by Wang Baozhi and others from the Peking University School of Government and Management, China’s coastal areas entered an aging society 10 years earlier than the central and western regions. In 1995, the population aging rate in the coastal areas reached 7.46%, and ten years later, around 2005, the central and western regions reached 8%.

Specifically for individual cities, in 2010, among the 34 provincial administrative regions, Hong Kong had the highest population aging rate, reaching 12.90%, followed by Chongqing (11.56%).

About 6 youngsters raise 1 old man

The elderly population is growing rapidly and the pressure of parenting is increasing dramatically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the dependency ratio of the elderly population in China has increased to 17.8% in the last 30 years. This shows that every 100 people of working age has to support around 17.8 elderly people, which means that one elderly person needs around 6 people of working age to bear the load.

By regions, in 2018, among 31 provinces, autonomous communities and municipalities, the dependency ratio of the elderly in almost 40% of the regions exceeded the national level (16.8%) that year. Among them, the dependency ratio of the elderly in Shandong, Sichuan, Chongqing and Liaoning reached more than 20%.

Is the pension enough?

Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance have issued the “Notice on the adjustment of basic pensions for retirees in 2020”, and in many parts of the country the adjustment of pension rules for retirees. Among them, the “fixed adjustment” in some areas reached 80 yuan, that is, each retiree can receive an additional 80 yuan per month.

Since 2005, corporate retiree pensions have achieved 16 consecutive increases, of which the increase has remained at around 10% during the period from 2008 to 2015.

So how big is the group of pension insurance funds? Let’s take a look at the central government’s budget adjustment.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the 2020 central adjustment fund budget agreement amounts to 739.823 billion yuan, an increase of 109.523 billion yuan from the implementation in 2019.

Judging by the payment difference (the difference between the central transfer funds delivered and transferred), Guangdong, Beijing, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and seven other provinces and cities are expected to contribute a total of 176.696 million yuan (the difference is positive).

According to Nie Mingjun, director of the Department of Pension Insurance of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, at the end of June 2020, the national corporate pension insurance fund has a cumulative balance of 4.77 trillion yuan, and is expected keep a balance of more than 3.8 trillion yuan by the end of the year, in addition to more than 2 trillion yuan. Yuan National Strategic Social Security Reserve Fund.