Crazy stone! Iron Ore Futures Hit Record Price Near Four Digits! Exchange Issued Risk Warning Letter With Multiple Measures To Cool Down

Original title: Crazy Stone! Iron Ore Futures Hit Record Price Near Four Digits! Exchange Issued Risk Warning Letter With Multiple Measures To Cool Down

Summary

[¡Piedra loca! ¡Los futuros del mineral de hierro alcanzaron un precio récord cercano a los 4 dígitos! La bolsa emitió una carta de advertencia de riesgo con múltiples medidas para enfriar]Since the beginning of this year, the domestic commodity futures market has shown a strong performance, and iron ore has been the star among them. It has been on the rise since the beginning of the year and has accelerated in the last two months. In the context of continued one-sided market rises, Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter DCE) issued a risk warning letter on the 4th to remind all parties to strengthen risk management and control. (China Corridor)

Since this year, nationalProductfuturesmarketPresenting a good performance, iron ore is the protagonist among them, it has been climbing all the way since the beginning of the year and has accelerated in the last two months.

Against the background of continued unilateral market rises, DalianCommerceThe company (hereinafter DCE) issued a risk warning letter on day 4 to remind all parties to strengthen risk management and control.

However, the market does not seem to buy it. This Friday night trading sessionMain forceThe contract reached a new market record and approached 1,000 yuan. Some institutions believe that the situation of tight supply and demand for iron ore is difficult to improve in the short term and supports the rise in prices in the future.

　　Dashang issued a warning letter

On December 4, DCE issued a “Market Risk Warning Letter” for iron ore, stating that “the recent iron ore marketpriceBig fluctuations, pleasememberUnits seriously strengthen investor education and risk preventionjobs,rememberclientParticipate in futures trading rationally and compliantly. Our firm will continue to strengthen daily supervision, seriously investigating and dealing with various violations, and maintaining market order. “

Risk control policies have recently been intensively launched in the iron ore futures market. The previous day, DCE announced the implementation of a trading limit on the I2105 iron ore futures contract. From the trading time on December 7, 2020 (i.e. during the night trading session on December 4) , no futuresthe companyA member or client may not open more than 10,000 lots in a single day on the I2105 iron ore futures contract. The single day open position refers to the sum of the number of positions open to buy and sell on the iron ore futures contract that day by non-futures members or clients of the company.CoverageThe number of open positions for trading and market making transactions is not limited.Real controlRelationship accounts are managed as a single account.

At the same time, to cool the market, DCE has alsoDeliverywarehouseThe maximum price limit for exit charges has been lowered. Among them, the maximum price limit for vehicle exit fees is reduced from 10-15 yuan / ton to 8 yuan / ton, the maximum price limit for train exit fees is reduced from 20-23 yuan / ton to 8 yuan / ton, and the ceiling for ship departure fees The price is reduced from 25 to 44 yuan per ton to 12 yuan per ton (excluding port construction and port fees).

　　Hot iron ore

　　The iron ore market has been hot recently and futures prices have continued to rise.

On December 4, the Platts Iron Ore index of 62% iron grade reached US $ 137.8 / t.I andLast year $ 87 / t increased by more than 50%, setting a new record in the last seven years.

In the futures market, iron ore futures rose sharply and the latest risk control measures introduced by the exchange have little impact in the short term. During Friday night’s trading hours, DCE iron ore futures continued to rise. The main I2101 contract rose to 993 yuan / ton during the intraday session. This price reached an all-time high since iron ore futures became public in 2013, and the absolute price is approaching 4. Thousand Yuan marks. The latest price of I2105 is 916 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.51% from the closing price of the previous day. The increase in contracts for the distant month is even more alarming.

The good performance of iron ore futures has been sustained for a long time: the iron ore index rose 46% during the year.Commodity futuresThe market ranks first on the list of increases.

Driven by the increase in iron ore, related inventories also performed very robustly. United States Stock MarketValley(VALE) has accelerated its rise in the last three days, with increases of 8.56%, 16.17% and 8.96% respectively.

In the A-share market, many iron ore-related stocks are trending strongly. At the close of December 4,Hegang ResourcesThe daily limit closed at 25.32 yuan, a cumulative increase of 72.59% this year.Jinling miningUp 6.52%, closing at 8.33 yuan, a cumulative increase of 50.63% this year.Hainan MiningUp 4.78%, closing at 6.58 yuan per share, a cumulative increase of 75.56% this year.Hongda MiningIt rose 1.15% to close at 13.16 yuan a share. This year, the increase has been surprising, with a cumulative increase of 412%.

　　Agency is expected to increase

CITIC Futures believes that iron ore as a whole has recently moved from storage to liquidation, and the spot price has received strong support and has entered a relatively high-level shock pattern. From the impact of the epidemic in the first half of next year, the annual growth rate of domestic demand will be relatively high and cast iron production abroad will also rebound.supplyHowever, the terminal launch is slow, and the port inventory will obviously be reduced. The tight supply and demand pattern is expected to overlap with mills’ expectation to restock the warehouse. The far-month 2005 contract is performing solidly, showing a strong turbulence pattern.

The domestic iron ore market shows a trend of tight supply. According to Fubao Information, imported iron ore inventory from 45 ports across the country was 12,446.6 million tonnes on December 4, a drop of 1.588 million tonnes from last week.

　　Huatai ValuesInvestigation reportIt is noted that since the third quarter of 2020, the economies of Europe and America have recovered and crude steel production abroad has increased. The global economy is expected to continue to recover in 2021 and demand for iron ore could increase, and the previous round of capex (capital spending) ended the expansion of iron ore production in 2018 and then contracted , the Vale mine disaster and the strengthening of China’s environmental protection, etc.Supply curveThe tail is steeper, leading to a spike in prices; Even if supply is optimistic in 2021, iron ore will be in a tight supply-demand balance. The average price of Australian PB powder in 2020 is estimated to be 774 yuan / ton (YoY + 9%), and the average price in 2021 and 2022 is estimated at 1,162,1487 yuan / ton (YoY + 40%, + twenty%).

Huarong Futures believes that overall, shipments from foreign mines have increased slightly recently, arrivals at ports have continued to decline from week to week, and port inventories have continued to decline, and supply pressure has eased. significantly eased recently. Current demand for iron ore remains temporarily high, and theprofitAnd the continued replenishment of stocks will have some upward supportive effect on the price of iron ore. DCE issued a notice to adjust the designation of iron ore futures.Delivery warehouseThe maximum price of exit fees is aimed at avoiding excessive speculation in the iron ore market and reducing the cost of delivery of forward contracts. In the short term, the iron ore disc is expected to maintain a strong volatility trend. Monitoring will continue to pay attention to the continuity of winter consumption of finished materials and delivery of iron ore, To prevent risks such as high intensity washing.

(Article source:BrokerageChina)

(Responsible editor: DF380)