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2020-12-06 06:53:55
source:China brokerage
Author:? Jin Ling
An opportunity to go to your door!
Since the beginning of this year, the national commodity futures market has shown a solid performance, with iron ore being the protagonist, which has been rising since the beginning of the year and has accelerated in the last two months.
In the context of continued one-sided market rises, Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter DCE) issued a risk warning letter on the 4th to remind all parties to strengthen risk management and control.
However, the market does not seem to buy it. The main contract during the night shift this Friday reached a new record in the market and has approached 1,000 yuan. Some institutions believe that the situation of tight supply and demand for iron ore is difficult to improve in the short term and supports the rise in prices in the future.
Dashang issued a warning letter
On December 4, DCE issued a “Market Risk Warning Letter” for iron ore, stating that “the price of iron ore has been volatile recently. All member units are requested to strengthen education for iron ore. investors and risk prevention work, and remind clients to be rational and cooperative. Participate in futures trading regulations. Our firm will continue to strengthen daily supervision, seriously investigating and dealing with various violations, and maintaining order of the market “.
Risk control policies have recently been intensively launched in the iron ore futures market. The day before, DCE announced the implementation of a trading limit on the I2105 iron ore futures contract. As of the trading time of December 7, 2020 (i.e. during the night trading session of December 4), non-futures clients or members of the company should not open more than 10,000 lots in a single day on the I2105 iron ore futures contract. The single day open position refers to the sum of the number of positions open to buy and sell on the iron ore futures contract that day by non-futures members or clients of the company. The number of open positions for hedging transactions and market making transactions is not limited. Accounts with actual control relationships are managed as a single account.
At the same time, to cool the market, DCE has also lowered the maximum price of the exit fee of the iron ore delivery warehouse. Among them, the maximum price limit for vehicle exit fees is reduced from 10 to 15 yuan / ton to 8 yuan / ton, the maximum price limit for train exit fees is reduced from 20 to 23 yuan / ton to 8 yuan / ton, and the ceiling for ship departure fees The price is reduced from 25 to 44 yuan per ton to 12 yuan per ton (excluding port construction and port fees).
Hot iron ore
The iron ore market has been hot recently and futures prices have continued to rise.
On December 4, the Platts Iron Ore index of 62% iron grade reached US $ 137.8 / t, a year-on-year increase of US $ 87 / t by more than 50%, setting a new record for the past seven years .
In the futures market, iron ore futures rose sharply and the latest risk control measures introduced by the exchange have little impact in the short term. During Friday night’s trading hours, DCE iron ore futures continued to rise. The main I2101 contract rose to 993 yuan / ton during the intraday session. This price reached an all-time high since iron ore futures became public in 2013, and the absolute price is approaching 4. Thousand Yuan marks. The latest price of I2105 is 916 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.51% from the closing price of the previous day. The increase in contracts for the distant month is even more alarming.
The strong performance of iron ore futures has been around for a long time. The iron ore index increased 46% during the year, ranking first in the domestic commodity futures market.
Driven by the increase in iron ore, related inventories also performed very strongly. Vale (VALE), which is listed on the US stock market, has accelerated its rise in the last three days, with increases of 8.56%, 16.17% and 8.96%, respectively.
In the A-share market, many iron ore-related stocks are trending strongly. At the close of December 4,Hegang Resources(000923,Diagnostic unit) Daily limit, closed at 25.32 yuan, an increase of 72.59% this year.Jinling mining(000655,Diagnostic unit) Was up 6.52% to close at 8.33 yuan, a cumulative increase of 50.63% this year.Hainan Mining(601969,Diagnostic unit) It was up 4.78% to close at 6.58 yuan a share, a cumulative increase of 75.56% this year.Hongda Mining(600532,Diagnostic unit) It rose 1.15% to close at 13.16 yuan a share. The increase this year has been surprising, with a cumulative increase of 412%.
Agency is expected to increase
CITIC Futures believes that iron ore as a whole has recently moved from storage to liquidation, and the spot price has received strong support and has entered a relatively high-level shock pattern. In addition, due to the elimination of the impact of the epidemic in the first half of next year, domestic demand will increase at a relatively high year-on-year growth rate, and cast iron production abroad will also recover, but the supply of mineral iron will be released slowly and the port inventory will be significantly reduced. The contract for the distant month 05 is expected to perform well, showing a strong pattern of volatility.
The domestic iron ore market shows a trend of tight supply. According to Fubao Information, imported iron ore inventory from 45 ports across the country was 12,446.6 million tonnes on December 4, a drop of 1.588 million tonnes from last week.
Huatai Values(601688,Diagnostic unitThe research report noted that since the third quarter of 2020, the European and American economies have repaired and crude steel production abroad has increased. The world economy is expected to continue to recover in 2021 and the demand for iron ore may increase. In addition, the latest round of capital investments (capital spending) ended the expansion of iron ore production in 2018 and then the contraction, the Vale mine disaster and the strengthening of China’s environmental protection, etc., made the tail of the supply curve steeper, leading to a rise in prices; even if supply is optimistic in 2021, iron ore is also in a tight supply-demand balance. The average price of Australian PB powder in 2020 is estimated to be 774 yuan / ton (YoY + 9%), and the average price in 2021 and 2022 is estimated at 1,162 yuan / ton (YoY + 40%, + 20% ).
Huarong Futures believes that overall, shipments from foreign mines have increased slightly recently, arrivals at ports have continued to decline from week to week, and port inventories have continued to decline, and supply pressure has eased. significantly relieved recently. Current demand for iron ore remains high for the time being. High profits and continued replenishment of mills have some upward supportive effect on iron ore prices. The DCE issued a notice to adjust the maximum price limit of the exit fees of designated delivery warehouses for iron ore futures. It is intended to avoid excessive speculation in the iron ore market and to reduce the delivery cost of forward contracts. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a strong volatility trend in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the continuity of the consumption of finished products in winter and the delivery of iron ore to prevent risks such as strong shocks and washings.
