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After more than three years, the CPI growth rate has once again been below 1%
The national CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year in October and pork prices fell for the first time after 19 consecutive months of rising.
On November 10, the National Statistics Office released data showing that in October the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased 0.5% year-on-year, and the increase was 1.2 percentage points lower than that of September. This is also the first time that the CPI increase has returned to 1 year on year after 42 months. %monitoring.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician with the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the year-on-year increase has fallen further, mainly due to the higher base of comparison in the same period last year, the reduction of elevation factors of the tail and the impact of pork prices from rising to falling.
In October, pork prices finally fell for the first time after 19 consecutive months of rising 2.8% year-on-year. The prices of eggs, chicken and duck meat also fell 18.3%, 13.2% and 6.5% year-on-year respectively, and the rate of decline expanded 0.6, 4.1 and 1, 8 percentage points, respectively.
Everbright Bank financial market analyst Zhou Maohua told the Shell Finance reporter that from a trend perspective, the October CPI will rise 0.5% year-on-year to the lowest point of the year, and is expected to rebound slightly in November and December. The annual CPI will increase by approximately 2.6% year-on-year.
“Mainly due to the gradual recovery of demand, seasonal factors have led to a certain degree of rebound in the prices of meat, fruits and vegetables, but considering the good conditions faced by the domestic supply, the general price will not fluctuate significantly “Zhou Maohua analyzed.
After 19 consecutive months of rise, pork prices fell 2.8% year-on-year
In October, in a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose 0.5%, 1.2 percentage points less than in September, while in a monthly perspective the CPI fell 0.3%.
Zhou Maohua said that in October, the year-on-year increase in the CPI fell below 1%, which was more than expected, mainly due to the fall in food prices driven by falling prices of pork and the high base effect. Non-food prices, like services, went up and down alternately, and the overall price was stable.
In October, pork prices fell for the first time after 19 consecutive months of rise, by 2.8%, while the prices of eggs, chicken and duck fell by 18.3%, 13.2% and 6.5% respectively.
In October, although the prices of fresh vegetables, beef and lamb increased by 16.7%, 7.0% and 3.6% year-on-year, respectively, the growth rates decreased.
Fu Yifu, director of the Consumer Finance Research Center at the Suning Institute of Financial Research, told Shell Finance reporters that the market price of pork has skyrocketed in recent months, allowing many companies to see margin for profit. A large number of new pig farming companies have entered the industry, and small and medium retail investors and leading large-scale pig farms are also expanding. Competition between companies has become increasingly fierce and the supply of the entire live pig market has also increased. In addition to the high price of pork in the previous period, the market demand for pork has also tended to decline. In general, reduced demand and increased supply are the main reasons for the recent decline in pork prices.
According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, during the week of October 26 to November 1, the wholesale price of pork was 39.26 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous month. . The wholesale price of pork again fell below 40 yuan / kg, which was the same as in mid-May this year. The price is similar.
However, Fu Yifu believes that in the short term, although the downward trend in pork prices will continue for some time, the strong consumer demand for pork around the Spring Festival will also make for pork prices to recover.
Non-food prices fluctuated little and remained stable. Among them, the prices of medical care increased 1.5%; prices for education, culture and entertainment increased 1.1%; transport and communications prices fell 3.9%; gasoline and diesel prices fell 17.4% and 19.1%, respectively.
Analysis: the CPI could rebound slightly in November and December
Wang Jianhui, a prominent figure in the industry, told the Shell Finance reporter that the October CPI data conveyed mixed messages. Fortunately, the important factors driving price growth, such as food prices showing a stable and controllable trend, supply concerns have been removed, logistics is relatively smooth, pork prices fell for the first time and the prices of fresh vegetables have been safe. The degree of increase, but the increase is also decreasing, which makes food prices stable as a whole, and price increases have lost the main motivation.
“Furthermore, the RMB exchange rate has recovered significantly in the last five months, which has also restricted the prices of imported raw materials, such as crude oil, minerals, bulk commodities, grains, etc., and it has provided a good environment to stabilize prices, “said Wang Jianhui.
But Wang Jianhui also expressed concern and believes that the data also reflects that China’s economic activities remain weak and prices are generally weaker without effective support from demand.
Looking ahead, Zhou Maohua told the Shell Finance reporter that from a trend perspective, the October CPI will rise 0.5% year-on-year to be the lowest point of the year, but is expected to rebound slightly in November. and December, and the annual CPI will increase approximately 2.6% year-on-year.
PPI continues to decline 2.1%, domestic demand is slowly recovering
The National Statistics Office also released simultaneously the PPI (Ex-Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers). From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI still fell 2.1% in October, the same rate as in September.
Among them, the price of means of production fell by 2.7%, the price of livelihoods fell by 0.5%, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.4%.
Among the main industries, the coal extraction and washing industries, which reduced their prices by 2.0 percentage points, fell by 5.5%; the gas production and supply industries, which were down 0.1 percentage points, fell 5.4%.
The oil and natural gas mining industry, which fell 30.4% and expanded 4.2 percentage points; the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries fell 18.5% and increased 1.6 percentage points.
Zhou Maohua analyzed that the PPI continued to contract year after year, but remained unchanged from expectations. The October PPI remained stable month-to-month and was not consistent with the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) price of the main purchased raw materials and the international prices of bulk commodities, mainly reflecting the drag on lower energy prices. .
“The PPI in the fourth quarter will continue to be negative from one year to the next, but the trend of marginal improvement is expected to continue, mainly because domestic and foreign demand is still on the path of recovery, especially the policy effect of the Domestic demand that sustains domestic demand continues to be released, domestic exports show resilience and corporate confidence continues to rise., And the decrease in uncertainty of the US elections is good for international prices of raw materials. The world is out of control and the number of infections has not reached its peak. This has restricted global consumption and investment demand, and has also restricted the room for commodity prices to rise, “said Zhou Maohua.
In terms of global CPI and PPI indices, Zhou Maohua believes that domestic demand remains weak relative to supply, but total retail sales of consumer goods have been growing positively for two consecutive months, indicating that demand internal is still slowly recovering. The national economy still needs the support of a proactive fiscal and monetary policy to continue rescuing companies and stimulate the vitality of the main microorganisms. However, it is necessary to emphasize the precision and effectiveness of the policies to avoid the consequences caused by excess liquidity.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun
