[ad_1]
Original title:[Cierra el petróleo crudo]US Stimulus Deal Reached Further, Dollar Weakened to Monthly Low, Oil Prices Closed Tuesday
FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Tuesday (October 20), the US dollar index weakened and Pelosi, the speaker of the Democratic US House of Representatives, said that negotiations with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had made some progress. However, due to concerns about the rebound in the global epidemic of the new krone, the prospect of a recovery in fuel demand is stifled and the increase in Libyan oil production has increased sufficient supply, limiting the bullish space for oil prices.As of press time, US WTI crude oil futures closed up 63 cents, or 1.54%, at $ 41.46 a barrel on the expiration date; December US WTI crude futures closed up 64 cents, or 1.60%, at $ 41.70 a barrel. ; December Brent crude futures closed up 64 cents, or 1.27%, at $ 43.16 a barrel.On the previous trading day, US oil closed down 5 cents, or 0.12%, at $ 40.83 per barrel; Bulk Oil closed down 31 cents, or 0.72%, at $ 42.62 a barrel.
(5-minute chart of December WTI Crude Oil Futures, source: FX168)
Fundamental positive factors:
1. At 04:30 am Beijing time on Wednesday morning, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that, as of the week of October 16, US gasoline inventories They announced a decrease of 1,622 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 1,767 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 1,513 million. Barrels: Refined oil inventories actually posted a decrease of 5,983 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels, and a decrease of 3.93 million barrels from the previous value.It is worth noting that today’s EIA report noted that increased demand from the agricultural and residential industries in the coming months will help reduce refined oil inventories, but not enough to boost prices. Furthermore, analysts said that any factor that contributes to the economic improvement will help crude oil rise, and the situation may improve, but it will not return to the pre-epidemic level.
2. The Speaker of the Democratic House of Representatives, Pelosi, said Tuesday that negotiations with the Secretary of the Treasury, Mnuchin, have made some progress on the new rescue plan. The chief of staff of the United States White House, Meadows, said he had just spoken with the Secretary of the Treasury, Mnuchin. Finance Ministers Mnuchin and Pelosi have made great strides on the stimulus plan. There are still ways to reach a stimulus agreement. The talks were fruitful and the negotiations can continue tomorrow. The stimulus package proposed by the White House is $ 1.88 trillion. Negotiations are expected to progress tomorrow. (The stimulus bill) The biggest hurdle remains Pelosi. She continues to uphold her $ 2.2-2.4 billion stimulus bill. She and Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin will negotiate again tomorrow afternoon. Senate Republican Leader McConnell has “fully committed.”
3. Although OPEC Secretary General Barkin said that OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will continue to cooperate to ensure that the collapse in oil prices is not repeated. OPEC is trying to maintain stability and OPEC + is focused on completing the compensation cuts in December. Furthermore, OPEC sources said Thursday that the prospects for bearish demand and increased supply in Libya may mean that OPEC may postpone existing production cuts until next year. OPEC will hold a meeting from November 30 to December 1 to formulate policy.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. At 04:30 am Beijing time on Wednesday morning, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that as of the week of October 16, US crude oil inventories They increased by 584,000 barrels to 490.6 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 240,000 barrels, and the previous value is reduced. 5,421 million barrels.
2. Two people familiar with the matter said Monday that production from Libya’s Sharara oil field has risen to 150,000 barrels per day, about half its production capacity. OPEC and its allies are concerned about increased production in Libya The weak outlook for demand due to the second wave of the new corona epidemic threatens the recovery of the oil market.
3. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said: “There is uncertainty in the energy market. In the last month, the information in the oil market has been mixed.” He said compensation for production reduction will be completed before the end of the year, and there is still work to be done on compensation for production reduction agreements. No one in the market should doubt the promise of OPEC +, and OPEC + will take the necessary measures in accordance with the interests of all parties. Countries with overproduction of oil have pledged to compensate for production cuts between October and December. OPEC + must take preventive and positive measures. Aziz acknowledged the role of oil derivatives, but speculation has no place in the oil market and OPEC must end negative trends in the bud.
4. According to Worldometers real-time statistics, as of 05:02 on October 21 Beijing time, there were 40.95 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide, with an increase from 311,315 to 40,950,523, and 1.12 million deaths and an increase of 4,639. Up to 1127398 cases. There are 46 countries with more than 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. Additionally, the number of confirmed cases in Costa Rica and Japan has exceeded 90,000. The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the United States reached 8.5 million, with 49,698 new to 8,506,351 new cases, representing almost a quarter of confirmed cases globally; the death toll reached 220,000, with an increase from 715 to 225,937, representing almost a quarter of the world’s death toll. Quarter.
Institutional comments:
Vanda Insights energy analyst Vandana Hari said the outlook for the oil market has turned cloudy again. The demand situation is inherently weak. On Monday, Saudi Arabia and Russia gave no signs that they would reconsider OPEC’s January production increase plan, and supply sentiment suffered.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said in a report that OPEC expects to replenish around 2% of the world’s oil from January 1, 2021, and we believe the oil market cannot absorb this demand. . Libya’s rising production has exacerbated concerns about oversupply. Libya has not yet joined the OPEC + agreement.
Louise Dickson, an oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, noted that since April, we have seen a miraculous recovery in oil demand, which is currently about 92% of the pre-epidemic level, but it is too late to announce that the new era of oil demand for corona pneumonia is over. early.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
