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Original title:[El petróleo crudo cierra]OPEC meeting + no substantial progress group issued a downward oil price risk warning, oil prices were mixed on Tuesday
FX168 Financial News (North America) News Progress in vaccine research and development announced by the American pharmaceutical company Moderna continues to stimulate the market, and China’s crude oil processing volume rose to the highest level in history in October, indicating that demand for the The world’s second largest oil consumer is recovering rapidly. However, the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee meeting held on Tuesday (November 17) will end without recommendations, limiting the rise in oil prices to some extent, and oil prices closed on the same day.As of press time, December US WTI crude oil futures closed up 9 cents, or 0.22%, at $ 41.43 a barrel. They peaked at $ 41.69 per barrel during the session; January Brent crude oil futures closed down 7 cents. , It fell 0.16% to 43.75 US dollars per barrel;The day before, US oil closed up $ 1.21, or 3.01%, at $ 41.34 a barrel; Bulk oil closed up $ 1.04, or 2.43%, at $ 43.82 a barrel.
(5-minute chart of December WTI Crude Oil Futures, source: TradingView, FX168)
Fundamental positive factors:
1. At 21:00 Hong Kong time on Tuesday evening, OPEC + held a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC). OPEC said that since May, world oil production has decreased by 1.6 billion barrels, and the implementation rate of the October production cut was 101%; the demand for oil in Asia has recovered and the news about vaccines has less impact on the oil market than the impact of the new corona epidemic; all participating countries need it. Stay alert, proactive and be prepared to act according to the needs of the market. OPEC documents show that the UAE’s oil production in October will decline by 153,000 barrels per day. The OPEC + Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee meeting will end without recommendations, and the final decision on oil supply will be made at the November 30-December 1 meeting.
2. China’s crude oil processing volume rose to its highest level in history in October, signaling the rapid recovery in demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer. A Bernstein Energy analyst said: “China’s oil demand has exceeded the level before the outbreak of the new corona epidemic, showing that (global) oil demand has not been permanently damaged.”
3. Bank of America survey shows novel coronavirus remains the market’s top tail risk, with long-tech stocks already the “busiest” transaction; Investors now expect to receive a “reliable vaccine” in January 2021; investors hold The cash level has fallen to 4.1%, which is lower than the level before the epidemic. More than 73% of investors expect the yield curve to be steeper, which is the highest level since the survey. Investors’ favorite offerings in 2021 are long emerging markets, the S&P 500, and crude oil.
4. Preliminary data released by the American pharmaceutical company Moderna on Monday showed that its newly developed corona vaccine can achieve an effective rate of nearly 95%. The trial analysis is based on the top 95 people with COVID-19 symptoms. The results showed that the effectiveness of the vaccine was 94.5%. Company president Stephen Hoge said that before the trial, no one expected the vaccine to be as effective; Last week, the nucleic acid RNA vaccine developed by the US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and the German biotechnology company BioNTech was in large-scale trials. It prevented 90% of infections. However, Pfizer said that preliminary data shows that the new coronavirus vaccine being tested is effective, but that does not mean that the vaccine will be available anytime soon. The current data may help petition the US regulatory agency to use the vaccine in an emergency, and more testing is still underway.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. At 0:00 am Hong Kong time last Friday, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that, as of the week of November 6, inventories US commercial crude oil, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 4,278 million barrels to 488.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.9%, previously expected to decline by 1.9 million barrels, the previous value decreased by 7,998 million barrels.
2. According to Worldometers real-time statistics, as of 02:32 on November 18 Beijing time, there were 55.67 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide, an increase from 317.821 to 55,674,719, a total of 1.33 million deaths and an increase of 6,146. Up to 1,338,804 cases. The number of countries with more than 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide has risen to 58. In addition, Serbia, Moldova, and Venezuela have more than 90,000 confirmed cases. The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the United States reached 11.57 million, with an increase from 36,052 to 11,574,332, representing almost a fifth of confirmed cases globally; the number of deaths reached 250,000, with an increase from 385 to 253,037, representing almost a fifth of the global death toll one fifth.
Agency comments:
1. Huijin Youdao’s Cao Bowen is short on crude oil futures this week. He said that crude began its rebound last week, with the biggest impact reaching $ 43.0 / barrel. This is the lowest route in the ascending channel since June 25. After the previous breakout, it turned into resistance, and the three-wave rally started from 33.6. It also consumes bullish kinetic energy, which is why it has entered the callback phase; He believes that crude will continue to fall this week, from the retracement line of 33.6 Fibonacci to 43.0 dollars a barrel, the callback level of 38.2% -50% corresponds to 38.3-39 , 4, strong Support is approximately between 36.6 and 37.0.
2. Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at financial services company Axi, stated in a research report that if several highly effective vaccines are marketed and the economy can be judged based on oil price trends, it is likely Let it be by the end of 2021. Market liquidity will return to the level before the outbreak of the new corona epidemic.
3. Gary Cunningham, Head of Market Research at Tradition Energy, said: “There was a bit of overbought pressure during the session, which pushed the oil market above the level supported by fundamentals, so it only held a part of earnings. It continues to spread and we are still concerned about global demand. “
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