China’s economy recovers for two consecutive months, decodes data signals in three ways

Original title: China’s economy recovers for two consecutive months

Since March on the road to restarting the recovery in March, China’s recovery and economic improvement have kept pace. ChinaNational Statistical OfficePosted on April 15national economyOperating status, that month, ChinaindustryThe central indicators of production, consumption and investment in the service industry have shown positive changes, and the national economy has become more active.

Analysis of various data can decode China’s economic “transcription” in April from three aspects.

——The recovery of production is faster than demand.

In April withsupplyThe effect of the rescue policy appears at the end of the useful life, and the gradual advance of the resumption of production and production, first recovers productivity on the supply side.

Official data shows that the current month is above the scaleIndustrial added valueI andA 3.9% increase, from a 1.1% decrease last month to growth. The change in electricity consumption data also supports this change: Industrial electricity consumption in April increased 1.6% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.8% last month.

ChinaMinsheng BankLead researcher Wen Bin noted:Industrial added valueThe rebound shows that the resumption of production and the advance on a large scale has led to an improvement in production. Among the main economic indicators, the growth rate of industrial value added first turned positive.

In contrast, in April, most of the demand side indicators, such as consumption and investment, were still in the negative growth range year after year.

In April, China’s consumption fell 7.5% year-on-year and the decline slowed by 8.3 percentage points; from January to April,Investment in fixed assetsThe year-over-year decrease was 10.3%, which was 5.8 percentage points narrower than that from January to March. In general, improvement in overall demand is slower than production.

Wen Bin believes that from the current point of view, the tasks of internal anti-rebound and external anti-input are still heavy, and the bottleneck in the economic recovery is also caused byindustryResumption of chain production and production without coordination to recover demand more slowly

From January to April, the accumulated year-on-year growth rate of the main economic indicators continues in the descending range. Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Statistics Office, admitted that this shows that the economy in general has not returned to the normal level of previous years.

—— Revenge consumption is not present

The data shows that from January to April,Total retail sales of social consumer goods.A year-over-year decrease of 16.2%, and a single month of April also fell 7.5%. Whether it is data from a single month or cumulative data, only the decline has been reduced and the “declining channel” has not yet emerged. The retaliatory rebound did not occur.

In response to the problem of the speed of recovery of consumption, Liu Aihua explained that, although the current domestic epidemic has changed from an emergency to standardized prevention and control, many agglomeration and consumption of contact, as well as the consumption of services with this characteristic , also a recovery process is required.

Some analysts believe that growth in consumption depends largely onDisposable income of residentsThe expected growth and impact of the epidemic can makeresidence incomeIt is expected to be affected to some extent, which in turn will affect the growth momentum of consumption. In April, the National Urban SurveyunemploymentThe rate was 6.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points since March.

From the consumption structure in April, the basic lifestylecommodityThe fastest growth, such as: grains, oil and food, increased 18.2% year-over-year; Non-essential consumption still showed a great decrease, as: the consumption of gold, silver and jewelery fell 12.1%.

Tianfeng Securitiesfixed rentbossAnalystSun Binbin noted that as the prevention and control of the epidemic in Hubei and Beijing deteriorated, the cautious mindset of residents decreased and consumption in the future will continue to recover,jobConsumption, income and other pressures, consumption is expected to be difficult to fully recover.

——Continue to recover

Will the Chinese economy continue to recover in the future? Liu Aihua said he is confident and confident in China’s future economic trend. This trust can come from four aspects:

It comes from a long-term accumulation of a complete industrial system, an increasingly perfect and super-large infrastructuremarketscale. These benefits have not fundamentally changed under the impact of serious epidemics, and have played an important supporting role in the process of fighting the epidemic.

The second comes from the continuous expansion of the new kinetic energy and the continuous transformation and updating. January-April, andThe InternetNew relevant formats and new models continue to grow against the trend.

Three are from Chinamacropoliticsspace. versusInlandThe method of storing “polished ammunition in one go” is different.currencyThere is still plenty of room for fiscal policy.

The four comes from the improvement of the economy for two consecutive months. This reflects the resilience of economic growth and also adds confidence to further increase macro coverage policies and further promote resumption of production.

Du Zhengzheng, deputy general manager of the China Development Bank’s Securities Research Department, noted that overall, April’s economic data was generally in line with expectations, and the economy is gradually on the right track to repair. Future policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the labor market, compensating for residents ‘losses, increasing residents’ incomes, and increasing consumption.

(Editor in charge: DF524)