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Original Title: China Promotes Global Climate Governance: Carbon Neutrality Goals Further Refined, Energy Demand Side Reforms Solve Problem
According to the Xinhua News Agency, on December 12, President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech titled “Carrying on the Past and Opening the Future to Start a New Journey in Global Response to Climate Change” at the Summit on Climate Ambition to via video, announcing a series of new measures for China’s nationally determined contributions.
On the basis of the plan to “strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060” in September this year, Xi Jinping further announced that by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions China’s carbon per unit of GDP will be higher than in 2005. Decrease by more than 65%, non-fossil energy will account for about 25% of primary energy consumption, forest accumulation will increase by 6 billion cubic meters compared to 2005, wind power,Solar energyTotal installed power generation capacity will reach 1,200 million kilowatts.
“In leading the global climate process, China is majestic and defies wind and waves.” Zou Ji, executive director of the Energy Foundation and chairman of the China Region, commented: “President Xi Jinping announced a series of independent national contributions from China at the Global Climate Ambition Summit. The new measures clarify the specific action targets , including carbon intensity, non-fossil energy share, forest reserves and installed capacity for wind and solar power generation, and guide the response to climate change in 2030.
On December 14, a reporter asked about the carbon neutrality target. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China is an activist and doer in promoting global climate governance, and we will do what we say. We are ready to work with the international community to promote the practical and effective implementation of the goals of the Paris Agreement, while at the same time making China’s contribution to the global response to climate change.
The road to energy transition
China is currently the country with the highest carbon emissions in the world, accounting for 28% of global emissions in 2018, and about 90% of its carbon emissions come from electricity and heat production, industry and transportation. Its energy demand and emissions continue to rise, and there is a long way to go to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
“If you follow energy policy research for a long time, it is not difficult to find that China has outlined a clear goal for the future,” Wang Lining, chief engineer of the Petroleum Market Institute of the Institute of Economic Research of China, told reporters. PetroChina.
He said that the goals proposed this time have two main characteristics, the first is that future goals are clarified and the energy transition can be made firmer.
Studies by many institutions have shown that China’s carbon neutrality will have to reach about 3 billion kilowatts of installed wind and solar capacity by 2050. If according to this goal, installed wind and solar capacity will reach 1.2 billion kilowatts from 2021 to 2030, and it will be necessary to increase 800 million kilowatts in 10 years.
“In fact, there are many voices that have pointed out that the 1.2 billion kilowatt target may not be in line with previous industry expectations.” An industry source told reporters: “But this goal is indeed a stable and technically achievable goal. All conditions are met and this goal can be fully exceeded.”
He noted that as the learning curve of wind and solar power generation has fallen to a natural trend, the technology has become more mature and the cost has fallen further. If the 20 years from 2031 to 2050 can be increased by 1.8 billion kilowatts, that is, an increase of 900 million kilowatts every 10 years, by 2050 it is very likely to exceed the installed capacity of 3 billion kilowatts. In this way, the vision of a high proportion of renewable energy can be realized.
On the other hand, the goal of reducing the intensity of carbon emissions by more than 65% proposes to exceed the upper limit of 60% -65% promised by China at the 2014 Paris Climate Conference, taking into account the continued slowdown in the economic growth and the high probability of the epidemic. The global economic depression, as well as the stark rise and fall of energy consumption and corresponding emissions in the consumer sector, will have an impact on GDP expectations.
According to the Energy Foundation, if the rate of decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions can be managed effectively, it is entirely possible for China to exceed its carbon intensity target and even achieve a 70% to 75% reduction in the carbon intensity by 2030.
Zou Ji said: “In this process, the key challenge we have to face is how fast research, development and application of low-carbon technologies will be before 2030, how fast will structural adjustment and how to solve justice. caused by structural adjustment. How strong is your ability to deal with the painful problems of transformation? “
At the same time, accelerating electrification will help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal only when the emission intensity of power generation decreases rapidly. The development of China’s wind and photovoltaic power industries is quite mature, and continuing to expand the scale of the market leads to the sustainable development of the industry. More importantly, like the photovoltaic, energy storage and new energy automobile industries, in the accelerated transformation scenario, China can take full advantage of the scale advantages of its domestic market and lead the world in technology industries. emergent as hydrogen electrolyzers.
It is not only about the development of new energy sources, but also the proportion of coal in the power generation system must be reduced. “China should continue to push forward the reform of the electricity market, optimize the investment environment for renewable energy and at the same time reduce the demand for coal power through cleaner and more innovative solutions,” Bloomberg New senior analyst told reporters. Energy Finance, Liu Yujing.
Large carbon-free investment market
Traditionally, China’s economic development has been driven by a troika of investment, consumption, and foreign trade. In the process of transition to high-quality development, China’s goal of “2060 Carbon Neutrality” also fits perfectly with the optimization of the economic structure.
S&P Global Ratings stated on December 14 that if the share of consumption in GDP can reach a level close to that of advanced economies, China’s carbon emissions are expected to decline by more than 30% in the next 20 years. Shaun Roache, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at S&P Global Ratings, told reporters: “It is not easy to achieve carbon neutrality. China needs to achieve an economic transformation, including the transformation of content and production methods.”
“Assuming that the share of Chinese residents ‘consumption in total spending will increase from less than 40% today to 55% in 2040, while investment will decrease at the same rate. As residents’ income increases and The importance of consumption to the economy increases, the demand for services is relative to basic products. The demand will also increase, “said Shaun Roache.
The optimization of the economic structure also favors the reduction of activities that consume a lot of energy, the increase of activities that consume little energy and the realization of the energy transition. For example, if capital and labor are transferred from the production of steel, cement and capital goods to the provision of educational, medical and recreational services, energy consumption per unit of GDP may fall.
S&P Global Platts believes that optimizing the economic structure can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about a third by 2040. According to its model, if China pursues the “2 degree” target, the emission reduction can be scaled up even further.
Indeed, China’s proposed goals can not only serve as a model for developing countries, but can also serve as a spur for developed countries to achieve their goals. At the same time, compared to 70 years from peak carbon to carbon neutrality in developed countries, China’s time is only 30 years, which means that the difficulty and intensity will be unprecedented and will also bring opportunities in many fields.
China’s zero-carbon energy transition will generate a huge investment market in seven areas, including utilization of renewable resources, energy efficiency, end-use electrification, carbon-free power generation technology, energy storage, hydrogen energy and digitization.
“By 2050, the market size of these seven fields will reach nearly 15 trillion yuan that year and will contribute 80% of cumulative emission reductions to achieving zero carbon emissions in China,” said Chen Ji, director from the Rocky Mountain Institute. At the same time, between 2020 and 2050, about 70 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment will be directly or indirectly leveraged. “
He believes that historical experience shows that when the market share of disruptive new technologies reaches around 3%, capital will begin to withdraw from traditional companies. The fossil energy industry faces an increasing risk of stranded assets. More and more investors are re-evaluating their investment portfolios and priorities to accelerate their withdrawal from fossil fuel related fields.
In the seven areas above, there are about 20 technological innovations, which are currently in different stages of development, forming a broad investment space together.
He said that in this process, the government should design, step by step, intertwined political actions and guide the general development of the industry through measures such as supporting scientific research and promoting demonstration projects, guiding industrial policies. and the establishment of industry standards. Market forces are the main driving force in the middle and late stages of industrial development, requiring the long-term collaborative deployment of production efficiency improvement, product optimization, application scenario expansion and the auxiliary services facilities.
At the same time, there is a strong synergy between the investment fields. Carbon-free energy, green hydrogen, and energy storage are the “building blocks” of demand-side zero carbonization, and all three achieve each other; Carbon-free investment in the industrial, transportation and construction sectors is an important ‘foothold’, and these demand-side technological innovations will change energy Utilization methods promote the formation of new industrial chains and generate new profit pools, digital technology is the “accelerator” of all zero-carbon green development, optimizing energy supply, operation and consumption through information technology.
(Author: Yu Qi Editor: Lin Hong)
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