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Image source,fake images
In July this year, a Chinese armed police stood in front of the Australian embassy in Beijing.
Recently, the tension between Australia and China is like the climax of a geopolitical thriller, and readers must sit down and hold their ground before falling from their chairs. No one knows exactly where the story will go or how it will end.
“Australia-China relations are disintegrating at a rate unimaginable six months ago,” academic James Laurenceson recently wrote.
Take the recent escalation of the conflict as an example. The Chinese authorities confirmed that Cheng Lei, a well-known presenter for Australia’s China-American and China Global Television Network (i.e. China International Television Station, CGTN), has been detained on suspicion of endangering security. national.
Subsequently, the last two Australian media reporters in China returned home urgently on the advice of diplomats. The event was staged dramatically.
On the eve of ABC reporter Bill Birtles rushed out of Beijing as scheduled, seven Chinese policemen visited him in the middle of the night. Michael Smith, a reporter for the Australian Financial Review, also encountered a similar visit in Shanghai.
Image source,Getty Images / Reuters
(From left to right) Cheng Lei remains detained in China. Two journalists, Bill Burters and Michael Smith, quickly returned to Australia.
Both took refuge in the Australian embassy in China, but were prohibited from leaving China until questioned on vague “national security” questions. Bertes said he felt like a “pawn in the diplomatic fight.”
The day after the two returned home, Chinese state media reported that Australian intelligence officers questioned several Chinese journalists in June this year and confiscated their equipment. This behavior is reported to “violate legal rights”.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) correspondent in Beijing, Bill Birtles, told the BBC that the process of investigating Chinese national security personnel seemed aimless.
Australian media reported that the incident was related to an investigation by intelligence officials and the police, which targeted the so-called intervention by foreign forces. In June this year, the office of Shaoquett Moselmane, the New South Wales state assemblyman, was raided. Mozemani is a staunch supporter of the Chinese government and later claimed that he had not been investigated.
Recently, two Australian academics were banned from China. Some people believe that this is China’s retaliation against the Australian government for revoking the visas of two Chinese scholars.
If it’s another time, any one of these events is enough to dominate the Australian news headlines for a period of time, but these events happen quickly in a short period of time.
The alarming speed of the incident left nearby observers confused.
The story behind the conflict
Anger and mistrust between Australia and China have been brewing beneath the surface for years.
2017 was a turning point, and Asio warned that China is increasingly trying to influence Canberra’s decision-making. Donations from Chinese businessmen to local politicians have also been exposed.
Later that year, former Australian Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull announced the introduction of laws aimed at curbing foreign interference. Beijing responded by suspending diplomatic visits.
Yet despite these upheavals, Australia’s economic exchanges with China, its biggest trading partner, have largely prospered.
China may be angry at Australia, but its growing economy is still starved for Australia’s natural resources. Thus, iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas continue to flow to China, and Chinese tourists and students, as well as huge business income, continue to flow to Australia.
Many economic benefits have been maintained, but in 2020 the situation has changed dramatically.
“In terms of politics, we are at the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972,” said Professor Laurensen, director of the Institute of Australia-China Relations at the University of Technology in Sydney.
The real fuse this year was Australia’s call for an investigation into the origin of the new coronavirus, which was first discovered in Wuhan, China. Australian Prime Minister Morrison said the World Health Organization needs strong oversight powers.
Australian Home Secretary Peter Dutton cited comments from the US State Department as saying there were “tools” showing how the virus spread, but noted that he had not read them. The Chinese diplomat responded with an extreme lack of diplomatic strategy, stating that Dutton must have been told to “cooperate in the propaganda war with the United States.”
Professor Laurenson told the BBC that Beijing’s ire is directed not only at political rhetoric, but also at Australia’s position on the global balance of power.
He said: “China saw Australia in geopolitical competition and made the decision to support the United States.”
In late April this year, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, threatened that the Chinese people would boycott Australian products.
“If the situation worsens … maybe ordinary people will say, ‘Why should we drink Australian wine? Eat Australian meat?'” He told the Australian Financial Review.
Soon after, China began imposing an 80.5% tariff on Australian barley, suspended some Australian beef imports, and launched an anti-dumping investigation on Australian wine.
Image source,fake images
The foreign ministers of India, Japan, Australia and the United States, allies of the “Quadruple Security Dialogue”, met in Tokyo last week.
Beijing also warned students and tourists not to travel to Australia, saying that racist incidents caused by the new corona epidemic have occurred in the country.
The attitude of the Australian public towards China has also deteriorated. This is especially obvious to many people, because China is trying to lobby for sanctions on some industries in Australia.
According to Natasha Kassam, a researcher for a think tank at the Lowy Institute, “these intimidation tactics have made Australians tough.” A survey conducted by the agency this year found only 23% of Australians believe that China will take responsible action to the world.
Kassam also said that every time China tries to “intimidate” Australia, there will be more and more voices demanding tougher policies against China.
Morrison uses strong language from time to time, insisting that Australia will not “sell” its securities and will not respond to coercion.
The Morrison government publicly criticized China’s implementation of the new “National Security Law” in Hong Kong and provided a safe haven for many Hong Kong students and graduates already living in Australia. Australia has also suspended its extradition agreement with Hong Kong.
Beijing is angry with Canberra’s latest position, particularly dissatisfied with Australia’s alliance with the United States. This is not surprising, but the speed and severity of the anger outburst surprised the experts.
“The relationship between the two countries has built a political and economic firewall in three years, which surprised me,” said Professor Laurensen. “In the past five months, China has cracked down on Australian barley, beef, students, tourists and wine.”
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The Australian border is still closed, but Beijing has issued additional travel advisories.
“It is not clear where the bottom line is, and this adds to the current tension.”
Kassam said that the dispute between the two countries is “structural”, that it is becoming more and more obvious and it is impossible “to resolve it with better diplomatic means.”
“In a globalized world where China is a rising power, this cannot happen,” he particularly emphasized when he mentioned the alliance between Australia and the United States.
Both parties know that high stress levels carry greater risks. Last week, a senior Chinese diplomat called for an end to the “confrontation and abuse” between Australia and China.
Fu Ying, a former Chinese ambassador to Australia and an influential figure in Beijing, called for more communication, saying the two business partners need each other.
The importance of this special statement lies not only in what he said, but also who he said it to. The target was Smith, a reporter for the Australian Financial Review who was expelled from China.
Even in the global recession caused by tensions and the pandemic, the two countries’ trade has maintained continuity.
“The relationship between the two countries remains financially sound,” said Professor Laurensen. He predicts that this relationship “will develop unstable” alongside political relationships.
“You cannot find a country whose production structure is more complementary than Australia and China. Simply put, China wants what Australia produces, and it really wants it.”
Image source,fake images
China is conducting two investigations into Australian wine exports.
For the two countries, this remains a tricky balancing act.
Kassam once believed that the separation of trade and political tensions was a myth, but as the rhetoric from both sides intensified, this myth has been broken.
“For about 10 years, Australia and China were able to maintain the illusion that economic interdependence and political tension between the two countries belonged to different areas. Both parties were interested in maintaining this illusion during that period.
He also said that it is difficult to see the situation quickly return to stability and that future relations between the two countries will be hampered by political tensions and conflicts.
“I am very concerned about this,” Kassam said. “Concern about whether Australians in China will be a target when bilateral relations are deteriorating.”
