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Xinhua News Agency, Tbilisi, September 28, Q&A hotspot: Where is the road to peace when the smoke rises from Naka?
Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ming
In the early morning of the 27th, a new round of conflict broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region. The two sides used artillery, tanks and other heavy weapons to cross the actual line of control and fire at each other, causing an escalation of tension. Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire agreement. Why did the conflict recur in the Naka region? How will the situation develop? How should the future path of peace go?
How is the conflict
The Armenian Defense Ministry declared on the 28th that the current intensity of fire at the site of the exchange of fire between the two sides is unprecedented, and many villages on the Asian side have been shelled. Asian National Defense Ministry spokesman Stepanyan confirmed on the 27th that two armed helicopters and three drones from Azerbaijan were shot down during the conflict.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry stated that all 12 Armenian air defense missile systems were destroyed in the battle, one armed helicopter from Azerbaijan was shot down and the crew survived. As of the 28th, the Armenian bombardment had killed 5 people and wounded many others in Tatar village on the Alfang side.
Naqa’s military department said on the 28th that at least 59 soldiers were killed and more than 100 injured.
In response to the serious conflict situation, Armenia announced on the 27th that it will implement martial law and military mobilization throughout the country. On the same day, Azerbaijan also declared that the country had entered a state of war and imposed martial law on the entire country.
Why did the conflict recur?
The Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijan during the Soviet period, and most of its residents were Armenians. In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, sparking conflict between Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the state. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in a battle for Nagorny, and Armenia occupied Nagorny and the surrounding areas of Azerbaijan. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a complete ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka problem.
In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group made up of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs to coordinate the resolution of the Naqqa conflict. Since then, negotiations on the Naka issue at different levels have been carried out within the framework of the Minsk Group, but the negotiations have not made substantial progress so far.
Over the years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged fire from time to time in the Naka region, and there have been frequent casualties of border soldiers and residents on both sides. The war of words between the two governments over mutual accusations in the Naka region has never stopped.
Analysts believe that the outbreak of a new round of conflict in the Naka region continues to be the continuation of the previous military confrontation between the two parts of the region. The new crown epidemic has seriously affected the economic development of the two countries, fueled nationalist sentiment and also encouraged the two sides to adopt foreign military operations. Change contradictory domestic ideas.
Great Power Attitude Becomes Key
Currently, in response to the tense situation in Naqqa, the international community has urged the two sides to immediately cease fire and resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations.
United Nations Secretary General Guterres issued a statement on the 27th, calling on both Aya and Aya to immediately halt the military conflict, cool the current tension and resolve the issue immediately through negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin urged both parties to the conflict not to take any action that would further aggravate the situation during the phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and to immediately stop all military operations. US President Trump also publicly declared on the 27th that he would take steps to prevent the Naqa conflict from escalating.
Analysts believe that the attitudes and actions of Russia, the United States and the European Union are important factors determining the course of the Naqqa conflict. The European Union is committed to the transportation of natural gas from the Caspian of Azerbaijan to Europe through the “Southern Natural Gas Corridor” to promote a strategy of diversification of energy sources. She definitely does not want the stability of the region to be disrupted and affect its future energy security.
As the most influential country in the region, Russia’s attitude is crucial. Starting from its own strategic interests, at the moment when the situation in Belarus is unstable, it is not at all in accordance with Russia’s strategic interests to allow the Naqqa conflict to spiral out of control. The upcoming Russian mediation may become a key factor in determining the direction of the conflict.
