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The situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate. The army sent armored vehicles to Yangon, the largest city, for the first time since the coup. The local network services were once again completely interrupted at the same time. United Nations officials described the actions of the Myanmar military as “equal to the war against the people.”
On Monday (15), the Myanmar military issued a statement warning anti-coup protesters that preventing the armed forces from carrying out their tasks can face up to 20 years in prison, and creating panic and chaos among the public can face 2-7 years in prison.
The military also said that prison terms and fines are also applied to those who incite “hatred or contempt” against the coup leader.
After the coup in Myanmar, protests took place for many days. The protesters demanded the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the restoration of democracy.
There have also been indications that the Myanmar military and police have gradually stepped up their response to the protesters.
On Sunday (February 14), Burmese demonstrated for the ninth day in a row. In the northern state of Kachin (Kachin), members of the security forces opened fire on protesters. The victims are unknown.
The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, described on social media sites that the recent night raids in Myanmar, the continued disenfranchisement of the local population and the deployment of personnel Military in the communities show that the army is becoming The military generals more and more anxious and warned: “He will take responsibility.”
In addition, the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement, claiming that people are demonstrating against the “overthrown legitimate government” in Myanmar and demanding that the security forces not use violence against these protesters.
Diplomats who have been in contact with the Myanmar military many times believe that the military may sincerely believe that it is upholding Myanmar’s constitutional order, and that the outside world must use a clear way to make the military understand that its actions do not They are acceptable. to the international community.
What progress is there in the situation?
In Yangon on Sunday morning, monks and engineers launched a demonstration against the coup. The military began to park armored vehicles on the streets late at night the same day.
Local telecommunications companies stated that they had received a notification from the authorities asking them to suspend network services from 1 am to 9 am local time on Monday (February 15). An international network monitoring organization noted that due to the measures, only normal network traffic in Myanmar remained. 14%.
A doctor from the capital Naypyidaw revealed to the BBC that security forces have been conducting night searches of different residential buildings for days. He also said that the local area currently implements a curfew from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. the next day. People must stay in This makes it easier for the military and police to catch targets.
On Saturday (February 13), the army issued an arrest warrant for seven opposition protest leaders and warned locals not to provide shelter for social activists who evade arrest. On the same day, the military announced the repeal of many regulations that restrict the powers of the government, allowing the military to detain people arrested for more than 24 hours without judicial permission and allowing the military to search private homes without judicial permission.
While the outside world is paying attention to the next development of the situation in Myanmar, the BBC’s Southeast Asia correspondent Jonathan Head analyzed that Thailand, also a Southeast Asian country, gave the Myanmar military a target to emulate. .
Like Myanmar, the Thai military launched a coup in 2014 to overthrow the democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (Yingluck Shinawatra). Later, the Thai military revised the constitution, including creating an upper house fully controlled by the military to control and balance the elected lower house.
The Thai military also revised electoral regulations to ensure that the Pheu Thai party led by Yingluck before the fall from power did not win too many seats in the House of Commons. The army retains the power to appoint the members of the Electoral Committee and has a great influence on the composition of the judges of the Constitutional Court. These practices have led the literary government to make decisions in favor of pro-military parties when handling electoral disputes.
However, the support of the Yingluck-led government in the country is far less than that of Aung San Suu Kyi, Thailand’s pro-military Palang Pracharath party (Palang Pracharath Party) garnered more votes than any opposition party. Heide believes that this is the case in both countries. One of the main differences.
What could happen next?
A high-ranking diplomat who has been stationed in Myanmar for many years revealed to the BBC that whenever he met with Min Aung Lai, the other side always insisted that the responsibility of the military is “to protect the democratic system.” The diplomat believes that the Burmese military officer really believes that he is creating a multi-party system.
“The outside world must let them know that the international community will not understand the actions of the military and that the international investment and cooperation received over the past 10 years will not continue. The outside world must send a message that the military cannot misinterpret.”
After the democratization of Myanmar, Derek Mitchell, the first US ambassador to the country, frankly said that the US does not have much to do to influence the situation in Myanmar. The key is that Japan, India, South Korea and other US Asian allies Many investments in Myanmar. They are also concerned about China’s growing influence in Myanmar.
“We do not want old-fashioned sanctions. Any action must be directed at the specific interests of the military, including money, arms supply, face, etc.”
Midway believes that the Myanmar military is more afraid of relying too much on China, so the outside world must make the Myanmar military understand that if it wants to strike a balance between the western camp and China, it must stop its current behavior.
However, the BBC’s Southeast Asia correspondent Heide analyzed that Myanmar’s military is already on the verge of being overwhelmed. Even if they are willing to show their sincerity to free Aung San Suu Kyi, Aung San Suu Kyi will no longer have goodwill towards the military. but it may increase opposition.