[ad_1]
Install the Sina Finance client to receive the most complete market information the first time →[enlace de descarga]
Original title: Britain and Europe reached a “Brexit” trade deal, the industry said there are still uncertainties in the relationship between the two sides Source: Shanghai Securities News
Unsurprisingly, the European Union and the United Kingdom reached a landmark agreement on the 24th on a number of cooperation details including trade, meaning that the United Kingdom will end the ‘Brexit’ transition period on the 31st of December. In the opinion of the industry experts interviewed, this agreement has laid an important institutional foundation for future UK-EU cooperation, but it does not mean that the UK’s “Brexit” negotiations are completely over. There are still uncertainties in the future relationship between the two parties. The market response has also started to return to rationality.
After the two sides announced a deal, British Prime Minister Johnson said the UK has regained control of its own destiny and its laws. The deal not only helps stabilize the relationship between the UK and Europe, but also brings certainty to the business development environment. The president of the European Commission, Von der Lein, said that the two sides have reached a “fair and balanced” agreement.
Pang Chaoran, a research associate at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told Shanghai Securities News that the agreement reached between the United Kingdom and the European Union will help avoid the uncertainty of bilateral economic development in the short term in the future and will create a important institutional basis for future cooperation. Under the trade agreement, trade in products originating from both sides will enjoy zero tariffs, zero barrier treatment and convenience of customs clearance. The two parties will also cooperate closely in the economic, social and fishing environment.
But the deal does not mean that the road to Brexit has been completed. In the short term, the above agreement will be approved by the UK and the European Parliament. In the long term, the two sides may still find differences in the process of implementing the agreement, and in the future, they may continue to negotiate the details of finance, transportation, energy and the environment.
Bank of China(Protection of human rights) Researcher Zhao Xueqing told reporters that the UK and the EU have reached an agreement in the fisheries sector where the differences have been greatest before, and have also terminated a duty-free trade relationship and quotas of goods, but the agreement does not include 80% of the British economy. The service industry, especially the London finance industry, has made no market access commitments. Discussions on the details of the trade agreement and service relationships are expected to continue in 2021.
“Brexit” is a kind of damage to the economic development of the UK and the EU. In general, the political influence of the EU is greater than its economic influence.
“UK ‘Brexit’ has prevented EU companies from freely entering the UK market and increased trade inconvenience. Furthermore, the EU will lose the UK as a major financial center and related corporate financing costs. they can sneakily increase. ” The political impact of “Europe” in the EU is much greater than the economic impact. In the future, the EU should make more efforts to strengthen internal unity and prevent other members from withdrawing.
After the UK announced its “Brexit”, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso stated that Japan welcomed the conclusion of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and this result deserves attention.
Regarding the changes in the investment environment after the UK’s “Brexit”, Pang Chaoran recalled that international investors should pay attention to the progress of future bilateral negotiations. After all, there are still problems to be solved in the service sector. At the same time, the agreement also has many termination clauses. Anywhere in the future. It is possible to withdraw from the deal and investors should pay attention to the uncertainty of bilateral relations.
From the perspective of market reaction, although the optimistic expectation of “Brexit” has helped British capital market sentiment to rise temporarily, investors have gradually returned to factual judgment.
Previously, as the market generally expected the UK and the European Union to reach an agreement before the end of 2020, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the pound-dollar exchange rate rose once to highs of 1.2269 and 1.3585, respectively. European stock markets were generally red, but short-term optimism will eventually do so. Returning to the level of rational expectations and valuation, financial market prices have also started to recede.
In Zhao Xueqing’s opinion, on the one hand, the European epidemic is getting worse, the UK is still in the worst affected area and mutant viruses have even appeared. Vaccine development and production have made significant progress, but there are still uncertainties in follow-up effects and applications, which have a substantial impact on the UK’s prospects for economic recovery. ; On the other hand, the trade agreement does not cover trade in services that has a greater impact on the UK, and is a phased agreement, and there may still be disputes between the two parties in the future.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
Editor in Charge: Li Yuan
