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Original title: Britain and Europe are close to breaking the impasse on the subject of fishing, and we still have to be careful that someone behind them secretly makes things worse!GBPDownside risks must be prevented
On October 31 (last Saturday), a team of analysts including Ian Wishart wrote an article in which Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, could prevent major UK and EU Brexit negotiators from reaching a trade agreement. EU officials believe that regardless of the progress made in the negotiations, Cummings can undermine any deal, and this threat will continue until the deal is signed. According to the latest news, Brexit negotiators are reported to be close to breaking the deadlock on the fisheries issue, but the pound has little reaction and investors should still be on the lookout for the possibility of Cummings turning the tables.
The market is concerned that Johnson’s senior adviser Cummings could interfere with the conclusion of the Brexit deal.
On October 29, the UK’s “Brexit” negotiations made further progress in resolving the biggest problem of disagreement, and hopes of reaching a trade deal in early November rose sharply. People familiar with the matter said the UK and the EU have taken a crucial step in deciding how to implement the deal.
Since the Conservative Party won the general election in December last year, Cummings, the top adviser to British Prime Minister Johnson, has largely been absent from the British government’s Brexit discussions. At the time, the British government was working hard to deal with the new crown epidemic and civil service reform. However, Cummings’ influence still cannot be ignored.
The Brexit deal is expected to be reached soon, but may require the UK to make major concessions. EU officials are still concerned that, as the designer of the 2016 Brexit referendum, Cummings may deliver the latest dramatic and destructive intervention. According to three people familiar with the matter, Cummings returned to the British government two weeks ago and forced Johnson to withdraw from negotiations without reaching an agreement.
Since 1973, the European Union has been part of the United Kingdom. By the end of 2020, the four-year negotiations between the UK and the EU will come to an end, and the two sides will try to reach an agreement on agreements that include trade, security, fisheries, energy and transport cooperation. Failure to reach an agreement will lead to a serious breakdown of the relationship between the UK and the EU, which may damage the relationship between the two parties for years to come. However, some members of Johnson’s advisory team saw the appeal of a total breakdown and the political freedom it brought to the UK.
Although negotiations are still continuing, both the UK and the EU hope to announce a breakthrough this week. According to people familiar with the matter, Johnson and his chief negotiator David Frost hope to reach an agreement and are confident that it can be reached. EU officials are hopeful, but not so hopeful, because they find it difficult to interpret the British government’s strategy.
The British government said in a statement last Friday: “We are still clearly inclined to negotiate an outcome, and we welcome this intense period of negotiation.”
Dozens of tired diplomats traveled between London and Brussels. After intense discussions last week, they believe positive results are to be expected, but at the same time they are concerned that Frost could turn the tables even if they have no evidence that Frost is involved in the deal.
In the eyes of EU officials, Frost is the one secretly manipulating the situation.
A senior EU diplomat familiar with the Brexit negotiations said that despite the progress made in the Brexit negotiations, those at the negotiating table know that Frost is reviewing these documents and may undermine their achievements.
Is the threat from Frost just imaginary?
This threat is not as real as you think. Insiders said Frost was upset about the lack of progress in the negotiations. He was still persuading Johnson in the second half of October that reaching an agreement was preferable and feasible. He worked with Barnier, the EU’s top Brexit negotiator, to reach an agreement that required both parties to compromise. That’s why, after Johnson warned Britain on October 16 that Britain should prepare for a no-deal Brexit by year-end, negotiations were reopened.
However, EU officials remain concerned about Cummings’ unpredictability and his ability to pressure Prime Minister Johnson.
An EU diplomat said some EU officials believed the two sides could reach an agreement, but underestimated Cummings’ desire to leave the EU without a deal, because it would allow the UK to continue to blame the EU for the negative economic consequences of Brexit. .
EU officials worry that if Cummings is the British government’s strategy trainer, he may very well turn the British government and the EU against each other, rather than suddenly change his attitude at the last minute and choose to support a Brexit deal.
In Brussels, Cummings remains one of the biggest concerns. For EU officials, regardless of the progress made in the negotiations, Cummings can undermine any deal, and this threat will continue until the time the deal is signed.
Two sources briefed on the progress of the EU Brexit negotiations said there are now indications that both the EU and the UK may reach an agreement before the mid-November deadline, and the EU is currently in the process. to enter British waters. There are already signs of compromise on the subject. The possible solution will allow the UK to regain control of British waters (which is also a key requirement of the British government) and will remove obstacles for the British fishing industry to increase its catches. Furthermore, the two sides will postpone the key decision on the exact fish catch quota to a later date, which means that even if there is a difference in the distribution of the catches, it will not necessarily affect the signing of the agreement.
Huitong.com recalls,
Based on the previous news, it can be seen that although Brexit negotiators are reported to be close to breaking the deadlock on the fisheries issue, the pound has little reaction and is still trading close to 1.29 below. the 21-day moving average. According to EU officials, before the deal is signed, Johnson’s senior adviser, Cummings, may still cause damage, and investors still need to watch out for black swan incidents in the Brexit process, causing the pound plummeting.
9:54 am, November 2 Beijing time,
GBP to USD
Report 1.2926 / 28.
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