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Original title: Brexit negotiations increase risk of no deal
A few days ago, the Johnson government in the UK announced a new draft of the Brexit “Internal Market Act”. Under the bill, the British government can flexibly implement the Brexit deal in special circumstances. This has made the negotiations between the UK and Europe a variable, and the risk of a no-deal Brexit has increased considerably.
A few days ago, Johnson’s British government announced a new draft of the Brexit law “Internal Market Act”. Johnson asked members of the Conservative Party to vote on the bill to “prevent outside forces from dividing the UK.” The outside world generally interprets the new bill as putting pressure on the EU to make concessions. This has made the negotiations between the UK and Europe a variable, and the risk of a no-deal Brexit has increased considerably.
Under this new bill, the British government can flexibly implement the Brexit deal in special circumstances and has more autonomy in Ireland-Northern Ireland trade agreements and state aid. The new bill clearly states that the British government can formulate policies that ignore the Brexit Agreement and the Northern Ireland Treaty to ensure the integrity and unity of trade policies across the UK. At the same time, business activities in the UK internal market will not be under the jurisdiction of EU law enforcement, judgment and supervision agencies. Specifically, the new bill will give the British government the right to provide financial assistance to Northern Ireland, and the British government can make decisions about transfer payments and government subsidies that were previously governed by the “state aid” policy. of the EU. Additionally, the bill may also change the requirements for Northern Irish traders to complete export declarations when exporting goods to the European continent.
Furthermore, the new bill will further integrate the UK domestic market. Britain hopes to maintain a unified “home market” in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland after officially leaving the European Union later this year. Currently, local governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have regional differences in food standards, energy efficiency and agricultural support policies. After the new bill is passed, local governments must accept uniform standards for UK ‘home market’ goods and services.
According to the “Financial Times” report, as early as January this year, Johnson received an assessment report from the British public administration, warning that the Brexit agreement would allow the EU to continue to have jurisdiction over the Kingdom’s “state aid” policy. Joined after the transition period is over. The report also indicated that the European Commission will adopt a “broad interpretation” of Article 10 of the Brexit agreement to allow the European Union “to claim jurisdiction over a large amount of Libra aid.”
Johnson has always claimed that the EU has made unreasonable demands on the issue of state aid. Free trade agreements do not need to fully accept competition policy, subsidies, labor rights, the environment or any other similar EU regulation. The EU should accept the British rules.
Public opinion generally believes that the British move violated the Brexit deal and will lead to EU sanctions. Under the Brexit deal voted on by the European Parliament on January 29, Northern Ireland will continue to implement the EU customs and single market rules after the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020, and the remainder of the UK will continue after the transition period ends. Stop applying EU trade rules. Under the Brexit Agreement, there is no physical border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, but the EU must establish a border for some goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK (England, Scotland and Wales) and establish transit supervision trade and a customs border in the Irish Sea. , To ensure that the tariffs are applied after the goods enter the EU trade control zone and the products comply with the EU standards.
At present, after eight rounds of negotiations between the UK and Europe, they have failed to achieve any substantive issues on sensitive issues such as fair competition, reciprocal trade (protection of labor rights, environmental regulations and government assistance), fishing and the “hard border” between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Progress. The “Internal Market Law” currently being promoted by Johnson has added new variables to the Brexit negotiations. If the UK and Europe fail to reach a trade agreement, the bilateral trade agreement will be subject to WTO rules. However, under the Brexit deal, the UK has a legal obligation to ensure that goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK are subject to EU supervision. If the UK violates the relevant provisions of the Brexit agreement, the EU can impose sanctions on the UK from an international law perspective or refer the case to the Court of Justice of the European Union.
With the UK and Europe not making concessions to each other, the risk of a no-deal Brexit has increased considerably. On 10 September, the UK and the EU held urgent consultations on the Internal Market Act. After the meeting, the EU issued a statement claiming that the new bill proposed by the British government seriously undermined confidence between the EU and the UK, and the UK needs to re-establish bilateral negotiations. Trust foundation. The European Union requires the British government to withdraw its legislation before the end of this month.
Barnier, the EU’s top negotiator on Brexit issues, said little progress has been made in trade negotiations between the UK and Europe, and the EU is stepping up preparations for an emergency plan for no-deal Brexit at the end. of year. Barnier said: “The UK has not respected the principle of reciprocity on the basic principles and interests of the EU. No one should underestimate the real economic and social impact of a no-deal Brexit.”
Recently, investment bank Morgan Stanley has raised the risk of a no-deal Brexit from 25% to 40%. Earlier, Johnson had stated that October 15 was the deadline for negotiations and that Britain would not seek to extend the transition period, which meant that there was little time left for negotiations between Britain and Europe. Obviously, the risk of a no-deal Brexit from Britain has risen sharply, likely to become yet another proof that the world is entering a state of disarray.
