Analyzing Industry Allocation Ideas from the Central Economic Work Conference

Summary

[Observando las ideas de asignación de la industria de la Conferencia de Trabajo Económico Central]The Central Economic Work Conference noted that, while closely following the main line of reform on the supply side, it is necessary to pay attention to the management of the demand side to break the blocking points from production to consumption. Combined with the conference’s reference to income distribution and real estate, the barriers to household consumption in the future will gradually decrease, helping to increase demand for optional consumer goods and services with higher income elasticity. . Focus on more flexible service industry chains such as aviation, film and television, catering and tourism, and medical services. (Industry Securities Strategy)

★ According to the central economy in 2020jobsmeetingContent, future industry shaping ideas can continue to follow the three main industry shaping lines proposed in our 2020 strategy “New patterns in the era of equity.”

★ The service industry chain recovered from the epidemic in a phased manner, including aviation, film and television, catering and tourism, finance,medical serviceWait.

——The Central Conference on Economic Labor stated thatsupplyAt the same time as the main line of lateral reform, we must pay attention to demand-side management to break the blockage of production to consumption Combine meetings on income distribution andreal estateFrom the futureResident consumptionThe impeding factors will gradually decrease, helping to increase the demand for optional consumer goods and services with higher demand-income elasticity. Focus on service industry chains with greater flexibility, such as aviation, film and television, catering and tourism, and medical services.

——The Central Conference on Economic Work incoinThe policy part proposes a “multichannel supplementBankCapital “, which favorsBankAnti-risk capacity; proposal “to improve the governance of financial institutions and promote capitalmarketHealthy development, improve the listingthe company“Governance” means that the pace of financial institution governance and capital market reforms can be accelerated; In the context of increasing aging, it is proposed that “the third pillar ofinsurance”，dealPensioninsuranceIt is expected to usher in new development opportunities Focus on enhancing the ability to withstand risksBank,headBrokeragewithinsurance。

★ Build a dual cycle system + the national economy takes the initiative in recoverymanufacturing: High-end manufacturing chain, advantagesTo exportChain.

——The Central Conference on Economic Work “will improveindustrychainsupply chainThe “independent and controllable capacity” ranks second among the eight key tasks next year, with the emphasis again on “filling short boards and forging long boards” to solve the “stuck necks” problem. Focus on new energy, 5G, new infrastructure, and semiconductor chains. And other related industries, as well as China’s key industries with fundamental advantages.

——The Central Economic Work Conference “will do a good job on peak carbon and carbon neutrality” as one of the eight key tasks, with an emphasis on achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Recently, IGuoxin EnergyProduction and sale of automobilesYear with yearThe high growth trend continues. New energy vehicles and related parts and materials are expected to benefit from continued policy support.companyPerformanceGrowth certainty has increased again.

——The Central Conference on Economic Work clearly stated that “we must actively consider joining the broad and progressiveThe Pacific OceanThe “Association Agreement” shows China’s determination to open up to the outside world and further demonstrates that the external cycle of the new pattern of development is equally important. The focus is on home appliances, home appliances, construction machinery, chemicals andindustryOpportunities for metal export chains and other advantages.

★ Technological growth is the main line in the long term

——The Central Conference on Economic Work clearly stated that “independent science and technology is the fundamental support for the overall development of development” and “will strengthenNational strategyThe “power of technology” is the first of eight key tasks for the coming year. In the 2020 strategy “The New Pattern of the Equity Era”, we noted that in the future, high-end design + demand-driven high-quality development + reduced financing difficulty and multiple factors promote the technological growth. Long-term ascending channel.

——In the short term, focus on consumer electronics, 5G applications, the military industry, etc., which have continued to improve performance, and in the medium and long term, focus on domestic replacements in the ” stuck neck “promoted by the” XIV Five-Year Plan “, such as chains of semiconductors and new materials.

Risk warning: macroeconomic performance does not match expectations, policies do not match expectations, etc.

Note: in the textreportExcerpted from “From the Central Economic Work Conference to Discuss Industry Assignment Ideas Wang Delunteam20201219) “, see the full version of the report for specific report content and related risk warnings.

(Source: China Industrial Securities Strategy)

(Responsible editor: DF134)