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Original title: State of the market and analysis of development trends of China’s civil air transport industry in 2020 The new corona epidemic will have a greater impact on the market
Affected by the new corona epidemic in 2020, domestic and foreign civil aviation passenger transportmarketExperienced civil aviationtransportThe biggest blow in history and repeated epidemics have hampered recovery from the crisis. From January to September 2020, China’s civil aviation completed a total transportation turnover of 54.77 billion ton-kilometers.Year with yearA decrease of 43.3%, of which freight and mail invoicing decreased 11.8% year-on-year.Passenger rotationA year-on-year decrease of 82.9%. Compared to the cargo market, the air passenger market suffered more severe setbacks.
Civil Aviation Carrier Development Index
According to the China Civil Aviation Carrier Development Index issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (using January 2004 traffic = 100 as a baseline), under the influence of the new corona epidemic in 2020, national air transport of cargo and passengersMarket demandIt exhibited a cliff-like decline, with the air passenger market falling to close to the benchmark in February, and lower than the freight market as a whole from February to July.demandIt only exceeded the cargo market development index in August, reflecting that the impact of the new corona epidemic on domestic passenger air transport is much greater than the cargo market.
Note: Take January 2004 = 100 as the baseline.
civil AviationTransportEnterprise scale
From the perspective of total civil aviation transport turnover, China’s total civil aviation transport turnover has increased year on year from 2015 to 2019. By 2019, the total turnover of China’s civil aviation transport industry will be of 129.32 billion ton-km, an increase of 7.2% compared to 2018. In 2020, affected by the new corona epidemic, the total transport turnover of the entire industry from January to September was 54.77 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%. Among them, the slow rally started in February and remained below the level of the same period in 2019 in September.
Efficiency of civil aviation transport operations
The civil aviation flight load factor is an indicator that reflects the utilization of the total passenger and cargo capacity of aircraft. From the perspective of civil aviation flight load factor, China’s civil aviation flight load factor has increased year-on-year from 2010 to 2017 and decreased since 2018. In 2019, the main load factor of Civil aviation flight was reduced to 71.67%. From January to September 2020, it was affected by the new corona epidemic at 66.2%. It reflects that the level of utilization of the cargo capacity of national aircraft has been greatly affected.
aviationthe companyLoading capacity
By the end of 2019, the number of all-cargo aircraft of various airlines in mainland China reached 174, and the capacity of all-cargo aircraft reached 7.8275,000 tons. Among the 13 airlines with exclusively cargo aircraft, SF Airlines had the highest number of cargo aircraft with 58 aircraft, followed by Post Airlines. , With 31 aircraft. Airlines with more than 10 cargo aircraft also include China Southern Airlines Cargo, Fortune Wings Airlines, Yuantong Airlines, and Air China Cargo.
The impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation transport industry
The outbreak of the new corona epidemic in early 2020 has had a greater impact on economic development at home and abroad, and has also affected the development of passengers and cargo in the national and international air transport industry in various degrees.
——The passenger transport market plummeted
Travel restrictions and isolation policies during the new corona epidemic have a greater impact on the domestic and foreign passenger air transport markets.
From the perspective of the global market,International Air Transport Association(IATA) Global aviation expected in 2020Passenger volumebePlumbFor 1.8 billion passengers, a decrease of 60.5% from 4.5 billion in 2019. Passenger revenue is expected to be less than a third of 2019 revenue.
From the domestic market perspective, from 2010 to 2019, China’s civil aviation passenger load factor showed an overall upward trend. The average passenger load factor in 2019 was 83.2%. From January to September 2020, the passenger load factor fell to 72.0%, which is almost the lowest level in ten years reflecting a serious drop in demand from the domestic air passenger market.
——A strong recovery in the freight market
The impact of the new corona epidemic on the air cargo market is reflected, on the one hand, in the decrease in the belly cargo capacity of passenger aircraft due to the strong contraction of the passenger transport market; on the other hand, the transportation of supplies for the prevention of epidemics during the epidemic, the booming development of e-commerce in the home office mode and cargo aircraft exclusively. Factors such as the increase in quantity have driven the rapid growth in demand for air cargo, compared with air passenger transport, air cargo has recovered strongly.
From a global market perspective, the performance of air cargo is significantly better than that of passenger transport, but it is still slow compared to 2019. IATA predicts that the volume of cargo in 2020 will be 54.2 million tons, 11.58% lower than the 61.3 million tons in 2019.
From the perspective of the domestic market, from March to June 2020, the Civil Aviation Administration ofReplyChargerOvertimeChartered flights in 1794, 2225, 2083 and 1521 have increased by 401.1%, 476.4%, 578.5% and 541.8%, respectively, year over year, achieving explosive growth and providing capacity for the development of China’s air cargo market.Warranty. The accumulated cargo volume from January to November 2020 is 6,061 million tons, which has returned to almost 90% of the same period in 2019.
——The impact of the epidemic on air cargo is less than the passenger market
Judging by the cumulative growth trend of domestic passenger and cargo air transport from January to November 2020, compared to the passenger market, the decrease in cargo volume is relatively moderate. At the end of November, the recovery of the domestic air passenger transport market was still less than half the level of the same period in 2019.
From the perspective of civil aviation passenger and cargo turnover growth, civil aviation cargo and mail turnover from January to September 2020 was 16.890 million tonne-km, a year-on-year decrease of 11, 8%, and cumulative passenger turnover was 41.220 million person-km, a year-on-year decrease of 82.9%. Compared to air cargo, the air passenger market has been hit hard.
(Article source: ProspectindustryInvestigation Institute)
(Editor-in-charge: younannan)
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