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Original title: After the holidays, the RMB exchange rate of 1000 points reaches a maximum of one and a half years.
During the “Double Festival”, on the high seasRMBRightAmerican dollarexchange rateAt one point, it rose more than 600 points. To offset and offshoremarketOn October 9, the first trading day after the holidays, the RMB onshore is strong against the US dollar.Makeup“, the intraday skyrocketed more than 1,000 points, as high as 6.7080, and the offshore renminbi once rose above the 6.70 mark during the intraday session, both reaching new highs since April last year.
Insiders believe that the new round offinancialThe delay in the implementation of the stimulus plan and the first recovery of the Chinese economy are the main driver of the appreciation of the renminbi.short termLook whyinternational marketUncertaintyThere are many factors,RMB exchange rateIt will be dominated by wide fluctuations.
The RMB exchange rate rose a thousand points
On the 9th, the onshore renminbi opened at 6.73 yuan and continued to rise at the beginning of the market. The data shows that at 11:21 a.m., the intraday high rose to 6,7089 yuan, a new high since April 24, 2019. It was near the center of volatility from late February to late April 2019, and rose more than 1,000 points from the previous closing price. .
As the land renminbi completed its rise, the offshore renminbi continued to rise, rising more than 300 points in 40 minutes in the morning, breaking the 6.71 yuan mark. At 11:22 a.m., the highest rose to 6.7030 yuan, a new high since April 23, 2019, near the center of volatility from late February to mid-April 2019.
Since entering the appreciation range at the end of May, the RMB exchange rate on land against the US dollar has increased by more than 4,000 points, and the RMB exchange rate abroad against the US dollar has increased by almost 5,000 points.
The dollar may strengthen in the fourth quarter
It should be noted that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to adjust in mid-September. In this regard, institutional sources believe that this is mainly due to the overvaluation of US stocks,Dollar indexRebound.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts believe that the US dollar exchange rate may strengthen, which will put pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Industrial Research MacroteamIt is expected that in the fourth quarter, the “election effect” of the United States may continue to support the US dollar index to rise to the 96-97 line, until there is seasonal weakness by the end of the year.
South China FuturesThe US dollar index is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the fourth quarter, but the process can be more tortuous. Some intermediate factors will cause the US dollar index to fall in the short term. However, considering that the correlation between the renminbi and the dollar index will decrease, the renminbi will be mainly supported by fundamental support and will remain optimistic about the trend of the renminbi exchange rate against the dollar in the fourth quarter.
(Source: West China Metropolis Daily)
(Responsible editor: DF524)
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