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New energy subsidies set a threshold Tesla will drop below 300,000 yuan?
New energy vehicle subsidy standards have been raised again, no more than 300,000 yuan will be enjoyed anymore, this move is expected to force many brands to lower the price in the middle of the year.
Four ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, announced the new energy subsidy policy rules for next year, the next day, new energy vehicle companies began to take action.
On April 24, the official website of Tesla China showed that the price of the improved version of the Model 3 standard battery life and the long-lasting version of the battery made in China increased by 4,500 yuan and 5,000 yuan, respectively. The same day, Wei Lai Automobile launched a limited-time subsidy pocket plan. Hereafter for users who paid the deposit before April 26, they still enjoy the 2019 subsidy standard, and Wei Lai will take the difference.
The price increase for Tesla is mainly related to the reduction of new energy subsidies. The official website shows that the personal subsidies for the private purchase of the Model 3 battery life standard upgrade version and the long battery life version are currently 20.25 million yuan and 22,500 yuan respectively, which are 4,500 yuan and 5,000 yuan lower than the previous ones.
The journalist noted that the new energy subsidy policy clarified the rules for new energy subsidies from 2020 to 2022. In principle, subsidy rules were reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% based on from the previous year. The most concerned about them is the 300,000 yuan subsidy red line. This means that after the end of the transition period, the purchase of Tesla vehicles may not be supported by subsidies. However, CICC predicts that this will force many brands, including the Tesla Model 3, to lower their prices in the middle of the year.
Lost subsidies?
Price exceeds 300,000, Tesla may be excluded
Last year, the new energy vehicle market experienced negative growth for the first time due to declining new energy subsidies. In addition, the first quarter of this year was affected by the new epidemic of coronary pneumonia. The extension of the new energy subsidies for two years is basically an inevitable conclusion. However, the threshold for car companies to enjoy subsidies is gradually increasing, and the subsidy standards will be lowered by 10%, 20% and 30% based on the previous year. This time, the Ministry of Finance has imposed a quantitative restriction on vehicle subsidies for the first time. The scale of subsidies per year before 2022 will not exceed 2 million new energy vehicles. If the amount is exceeded, the subsidies will no longer be enjoyed. Last year, sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1,206 million units, and the industry expects this year’s sales to be around 1.1 million units.
The biggest focus in the New Deal is the 300,000 yuan subsidy red line. The Ministry of Finance stipulates the sale price, and new energy vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, but to support innovation and development of new business models such as “electricity exchange”, they will not be implemented new energy vehicle products that adopt the “electricity exchange” model. 300,000 yuan price limit requirement.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, believes that the 300,000 yuan subsidy threshold should be good guiding policy. “The first is to increase subsidy efficiency, subsidize conventional products and reduce subsidies for high-quality luxury products. At the same time, it is beneficial for new energy vehicles to improve product price competitiveness and achieve integration with the traditional vehicle pricing system. Eventually, the replacement rate of new energy vehicles to traditional fuel vehicles will increase, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate. “
Currently, Tesla’s lowest-priced model in China is the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade version, which is priced at 328,300 yuan before subsidy, while long-term version subsidy of the battery to be delivered in June is 366,500 yuan before the subsidy. The two models have been included in the new energy subsidy catalog, but because they are not compatible with the “electricity exchange” model, the price is higher than the threshold of 300,000 yuan. These models may no longer qualify for subsidies after July 22 of this year.
However, the impact of the new energy subsidies on Tesla may be limited. Before the China-made Model 3 was selected for the new energy subsidy catalog, Tesla was quite popular in China, China being the second largest market for Tesla year-round. According to documents filed with the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), Tesla’s revenue in China in 2019 was $ 2,979 million, an increase of 69.55% yoy.
Furthermore, although the sales volume of China’s new energy vehicle market fell 56% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, Tesla’s performance was unique. According to data from the China Joint Passenger Car Market Information Conference, Model 3 sales in the first quarter were as high as 16,700 vehicles, which was stable Ranked first in sales of the pure domestic electricity market
Will the price be reduced?
Increasing the national production rate is expected to reduce costs by more than 10%
Different views on the 300,000 yuan price limit and the support of the “energy exchange” model.
Li Xiang, the founder of the car, said the threshold of 300,000 is designed to limit Tesla, but he gave Tesla the reason and the need to cut the price. The standard version can take the price to 300,000, after subsidy 27 More than ten thousand.
He Xiaopeng, founder of Xiaopeng Motors, believes that Tesla has a gross profit of 30% in China and is fully capable of adapting to the new changes. Instead, it poses greater challenges for new electric vehicles from some joint ventures and high-end brands. He predicted that Tesla’s Model 3 long-term national battery subsidy would likely drop to 277,500 yuan during the year, a 61,500 yuan reduction from the current price of 339,000 yuan (the price before Tesla’s adjustment).
When the Shanghai Super Factory delivered the first batch of Model 3 made in China last year, Tesla revealed that its localization rate was only 30%, and it is expected to reach 70% in the middle of this year and 100%. by the end of the year. Therefore, Model 3 has a Space price drop. Previous research by Anxin Securities predicted that the standard cost of the American factory Model 3 model was approximately 230,000 yuan. With the increase in the localization rate, the cost of the Chinese-made Model 3 is expected to decrease by 10% -15%.
From a price point of view, the current price of the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade subsidy is only 23,800 yuan from the 300,000 yuan threshold. It is not difficult for Tesla to reduce the price to less than 300,000 yuan, but the long-lasting version of the battery and the high-performance version are priced at 366.55 million and 419,800 yuan respectively, and it is more difficult to reduce it to less than 300,000 yuan .
It is worth noting that the new energy subsidy new policy will only be officially implemented starting July 22, and official cooperation between Tesla and Ningde Times will begin in July. At that time, the price of the national Model 3 will have a new one. Round down. Currently, the Tesla Home Model 3 is equipped with electric batteries supplied by LG Chem and Panasonic. The electric battery supplied to Tesla in the Ningde era can be a lithium iron phosphate battery at a lower cost than a ternary lithium battery. Prepare for national model price reduction 3.
Tesla founder Elon Musk said the “Battery Day” originally scheduled for April 20 will be postponed until mid-May, when the company can introduce the battery app “without cobalt.”
Wei Lai turned around?
Electricity replacement mode is recommended, all Weilai models are not affected
On April 24, Weilai Automobile said that while the national subsidy will be canceled for more than 300,000 models as of April 23, all Weilai models support rapid power replacement, so they are not affected. However, in the event that the subsidies are withdrawn as a whole, ES8 / ES6 subsidies will be reduced by 2,000 to 7,000 yuan.
For this reason, Weilai Automobile has launched a limited time pocket grant plan. Users who pay the deposit starting April 26 will continue to enjoy the 2019 subsidy standard, and Weilai will take the difference.
The price is over 300,000 yuan, but is still included in the scope of subsidies. Wei Lai is considered the winner after the introduction of the New Deal. The journalist noted that the relevant departments have encouraged new energy vehicle companies to promote the “electricity replacement” model. At the end of December last year, Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at his seminar on the study of new energy vehicle energy exchange models that charging and energy exchange are methods of energy replacement for new energy vehicles. And features, we should encourage the common development of various new models of electric vehicle power supply, including charging and power replacement, and continually improve the convenience of using new energy vehicles. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also mentioned that it will accelerate the development of key standards in the fields of electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, electric batteries, and charging and replacement.
On April 7, Weilai Automobile announced the volume of deliveries in March this year and said 1,533 vehicles were delivered in March, an increase of 116.8% from the previous month. The number of deliveries in the first quarter of this year was 3,838, which exceeded the previous expectations of the company.
(Reporter Lu Yifu)
