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Original caption: After Germany issued a city lockdown order and quickly canceled it, what will Merkel do if she doesn’t guarantee the euro overnight?
100 million doses of new coronavirus vaccine injections completed ahead of schedule in the United Statesobjectives, President Biden is happy to move toward the next goal, and he also got thefinancialDepartment sumInlandConsistentapprovalThenAtlantic OceanOn the other side of Germany, the German chancellor has entered the last half of his 16-year term.MerckYou were helpless.After unexpectedly enacting unprecedented measures to blockade the city this week, but it was difficult to overturn public opinion and quickly cancel it, the reputation of the German government has sunk further to the bottom.EURThe exchange rate fell to a four-month low.
Earlier, late Monday night local time, I had an intense 8-hour video with several senior cabinet officials.meetingYes, exhaustedMerckErzai finally consulted the Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister’s Office.opinionBack, facepublicIn a speech, he announced the decision to implement a five-day “reinforced lockdown” during the Easter holidays in early April to curb the spread of the virus. Due to the fierce counterattack in the current epidemic, and the vaccinesupplyAgainst the backdrop that it is still stretching, there are hardly any other measures that can prevent the situation from deteriorating further.
However, a little more than a day has passed, and on Wednesday morning local time,MerckEr was forced to hold a closed-door meeting again and immediately announced the cancellation of the “forced shutdown” operation and, at the same time, apologized to the public for his hasty decision. Because, as soon as the decision was announced earlier, it immediately sparked an uproar among the German people and the country’s local governments.SupervisorOfficials also strongly opposed this move by the federal government, forcing Merkel to think twice, but she had no choice but to cancel the “strong lockdown” measure.
It may also be that Merkel has become a “politicalDisabled“At the beginning, although her current term is still half a year away. Germany will hold federal elections in September 2021. Merkel herself has said that she will choose to retire by then and end her 16-year career as prime minister.” . Originally, Merkel hoped to use the enormous prestige and support accumulated during her tenure to escort the party’s successors to the bottom. However, the epidemic that has raged since last year has added to his retirement plan.
In fact, since the second half of last year, under the crisis that the epidemic has repeatedly recovered in Europe and has exacerbated the outbreak, the leaders of EU countries, including Merkel, have been adopting blocking measures andOpen economyThe hesitation between activities has led him to fall into the dilemma of not being able to preserve the economy, but also difficult to contain the epidemic. In this situation, the public support rate of the German ruling authorities has also come under heavy pressure. After leading by 16 percentage points for a time, the support rate advantage of the center-right coalition party over its main opponent, the Green Party, is only left in the negligible digit breadth.
Merkel’s political opponents and Green Party leaders are even moreborrowThe current government “reaction” to the blockade policy seized the opportunity to criticize it, saying that the federal government should take a stand against the current chaos and the people and the public.businessTaking full responsibility for the loss of the world, because when it was supposed to be able to take more effective and targeted anti-epidemic policy measures, it simply and rudely chose to implement a “one size fits all” during the holiday season, completely without regard account the situation of ordinary people.
Indeed, once Merkel’s “strong blockade” order was released, even opposition emerged within the ruling coalition, and many members of Congress were baffled by such harsh measures during the Christmas season. They demand that all stores close on April 1, the Thursday before Easter, even those that sell food.StoreDon’t let it pass you by, and traditionally, this is the day when the German people concentrate on buying food for the holidays. Supermarket operators have expressed even the greatest opposition, because according to custom, German families will concentrate on buying. and sale of products on the occasion of Easter after living a fasting period of more than a month before Easter.consumptionThe meat meal is being celebrated, so the store must move forwardSupply. If it is not opened and sold normally by then, it will suffer disastrous consequences and the loss is expected to reach 7 billion euros.
So only MerkelHersheyThe next day, the cabinet members were reconvened for a meeting, and the plan to “strengthen the blockade” was hastily abolished, and a rare apology was made to all the people. Throughout the previous 15 years of Merkel’s career as prime minister, such embarrassing scenes are extremely rare. Due to changes in the epidemic, she was caught off guard, a veteran politician who had worked in the scientific field for many years before entering politics. Just a month ago, the epidemic situation in Europe was improving considerably, the number of infections was decreasing and the call for the total liberalization of economic activities was also increasing day by day. But now, the raging virus of mutant strains has caused the epidemic in Germany and other countries will grow again, the intensive care unit is back in full operation and the worst thing is that the vaccination campaign that was originally planned to advance is It has stalled for various reasons.
Since the European Union has yet to put its own developed and produced vaccines into use, after the British Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was exposed to safety risks, European countries, including Germany, almost fell into the situation of having no vaccines. Currently, increasing the population’s vaccination coverage is considered the last resort to cope with the spread of the epidemic, but intelligent women have difficulty cooking without rice, so they will be restricted in the next Easter holidays.Personnel flow, It becomes the only action that can be taken.
But obviously even the five days “short termThe “shut down the city” measures are also enough to trigger an unexpected rebound in public opinion. This will make Merkel’s last six months in office even more difficult. Unless the vaccine bottleneck can be lifted in a short period of time, the country will inevitably continue to face blowouts and bursts. The impact of the economic blockade takes turns to raise the dilemma of the pumpkin. The prospect of political turmoil caused by this will further affect the outlook for the euro exchange rate in addition to the epidemic.investmentThe agency predicts that after August this year, when the United States is fully immunized, the United StatesPfizerModena andJohnsonVaccines will be raised in large numbersTo exportAt that time, the vaccine shortage in the European Union is expected to ease, but then there is not much time left for the German authorities.
In addition to Merkel’s successor and leader of the new CDU party, Rachelt, who is expected to face an uphill battle in the German general elections in September, French President Macron is almost a year away from the countdown to the general elections of the next year. Right-wing populist candidate Le Pen, the Italian coalition government had fallen again earlier, and was forced to be appointed by former European Central Bank President Draghi to take over as prime minister and form a technocratic government. This is in stark contrast to the current situation, where the chaos of the United States general election is gradually turning dusty.American dollarIn the last two months of last year, the index registered sustained pressure due to political chaos, the current pressure from the currency market has obviously shifted to the European side.
Therefore, industry organizations predict that, in the context of further deterioration of European economic fundamentals relative to the US, the euro against the dollar will come under further pressure to fall to the 1 line, 16 in the second quarter, and the next step will depend on the vaccine supply bottleneck. It will not be eliminated in the second half of the year.
(Source: Huitong.com)
(Editor in charge: DF358)
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