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Original title:[Original]What is the impact of the three emerging market central banks taking the lead in raising interest rates?
inInlandThe reserve continues to remain ultra-lowinterest rateIn the context of recent developments in Brazil, Turkey, Russia, etc.marketCentral banks have announced interest rate hikes one after another, which has raised concerns in the market. Industry insiders generally believe that due to subdued domestic inflation, China will not be under pressure to raise interest rates during the year.
On the 18th, the Central Bank of Brazil announced that the benchmark indexinterest rateFrom 2% to 2.75%, this is the first interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Brazil since July 2015.
On the same day, the Central Bank of Turkey also announced that the benchmark indexinterest rateIncrease to 19%. In fact, Turkey has been raising interest rates in recent months. In November of last year, the central bankReference interest rateIt increased from 10.25% to 15% and then raised interest rates to 17% in December. However, the Turkish president exempted the governor from the country’s central bank on the night of the 19.Job titleOnce again, market concerns about Turkey’s economic outlook intensified.
By the Governor of the Central Bank of TurkeyDismissalShocking news, Asian business hours on MondayTurkish Lira/American dollarThe intraday plummeted almost 15%.
On the 19th, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, which is the first time it has raised the benchmark interest rate since the end of 2018. central bank also stated that sometime in the futuremeetingRate hikes, rapid recovery in demand and rising inflationary pressures require a return to neutralitybadgepolitics.
From today’s point of view, the interest rate hikes of the three central banks are related to their high inflation. If Turkey continues to increase interest rates, it is obviously related to its high inflation and currency depreciation. Data shows that as of February this year, Turkey’s annualized inflation rate has risen to 15.6% and the lira Turkish against the US dollar.exchange rateCompared to three years ago, it has depreciated by more than 50%. The Brazilian Ministry of Economy announced that it will raise the inflation forecast for Brazil this year to 4.4%, mainly due to food.priceIncrease sharply.
In addition, indicators from emerging markets such as India, Malaysia and Thailand show that market expectations for tighter monetary policy are rising. In addition to emerging economies, interest rate hikes in some advanced economies are also ahead of schedule. For example, Norges Bank noted in announcing the interest rate resolution on the 18th that the policy interest rate is highly likely to rise in the second half of this year.
international financesRecently launched by the associationreportIt shows that a single day appeared in emerging markets in the first week of March for the first time in nearly six months.Cash flowThe daily capital outflow is about 290 million US dollars.
In this regard,Zheshang ValuesbosseconomistAccording to Li Chao’s analysis, “After the rapid rise in US bond yields in March, some funds may pull out of emerging markets. The currencies of Russia, Brazil and Turkey continued to depreciate in late March. US gradual recovery epidemic, interest rate hikes Expectations move gradually. Emerging markets will raise interest rates earlier than expected to avoid cross-border capital outflows and avoid negative spiral of inflation and currency devaluation This is also one of the reasons emerging market countries are starting a wave of interest rate hikes. In addition to Turkey, Russia and Brazil, which have raised interest rates, South Africa, Nigeria, Thailand and other emerging market countries also continue to raise interest rates. “
Information from Mike RongdirectorChief Xu Yang told reporters: “Due to rising US bond yields, emerging economies are raising interest rates mainly to prevent excessive outflow of foreign capital and avoid financial crises. Such as the general level of inflation. of my country is moderate, there is little pressure on interest rates during the year.Foreign exchangeThe market is relatively stable, ChinaNational debtIt has the highest yield among the world’s high-grade bonds, has allocation value, and is favored by foreign investors, so it has little impact on the domestic bond market. “
It is worth mentioning that Central Bank Governor Yi Gang stated at the 2021 China Development Forum at the weekend that my country’s monetary policy has always remained within the normal range, with sufficient tools and means.Interest rate levelModerate, there is more room for control of monetary policy.
(Source: Reading Chuang)
(Editor in charge: DF387)
I solemnly declare: The purpose of this information is to spread more information, and it has nothing to do with this booth.
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