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Germany’s “Super Election Year” begins Merkel’s party is off to a bad start
Author: Wu Will
2021 is Germany’s “super election year”. From March to September, a total of six state administrative units hold parliamentary elections. The German general elections to be held at the end of September will determine the next ruling party and will also announce it. The new candidate for German chancellor after Merkel.
On the 14th local time, the states of Baden-Württemberg (hereinafter “Bad Württemberg”) and Rhineland-Palatinate (hereinafter “Lafalz”) in south-west Germany took the lead in holding elections for the state assembly. The curtain was raised for the election year.
According to German media reports, judging by the latest voting results, the Green Party (Grüne) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) won Bavaria and Lai Fah respectively, while Merkel’s CDU support rate (CDU ) The sharp fall has undoubtedly added suspense to the September elections.
Why did Merkel’s party fail miserably?
Although the CDU and CSU (CSU) have been in power in the German federal government for more than a decade since 2005, the states of Bad Württemberg and Laifa, where elections to the state parliament have just taken place, have been in power for more of a decade. However, the CDU has performed poorly.
According to statistics published by the German media, the Green Party, the largest party in the Baden-Württemberg parliament, obtained 32.6% of the votes, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the previous legislature, and he won, while the CDU’s 24.1% of the votes were even higher. It was an all-time low, 3 percentage points less than the previous time; Furthermore, the Social Democratic Party obtained 11.0% of the votes, the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) was 10.5%, the AfD Party (AfD) was 9.7% and the Left Party (Die Linke) it was only 3.6%.
Lai Fah’s economy is dominated by industrial manufacturing. It is the location of BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, with a GDP that represents approximately 4.2% of Germany. Since the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Social Democratic Party, and the CDU can only play the role of an opposition party for a long time.
The latest voting results show that the Social Democratic Party won the state elections again with 35.7% of the votes. The CDU’s voting rate was just 27.2%, the second lowest ever. In addition, the Green Party obtained 9.3% of the votes, the Electoral Party 8.3%, the Liberal Democratic Party 5.5% and the Liberal Democratic Party 5.4%.
It’s no wonder the CDU suffered a fiasco this time. The latest poll conducted by ARD in early March showed that the Coalition Party’s support rate is at its lowest point since the new crown pneumonia outbreak (33%). More than half of the respondents are dissatisfied with the current anti-epidemic policy of the German government. Also, not long ago, during the epidemic, a scandal was discovered of many CDU members collecting rebates when seeking anti-epidemic supplies for German companies. This caused the CDU’s reputation to plummet. parties, dragged the CDU election.
Government “semaphore”
Barring accidents, the state of Lai Fah will continue to maintain the current “signal” government, which is governed by the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. Uwe Jun, professor of political science at the University of Trier in Germany, said there is no other viable option, this is a relatively harmonious alliance, so there is no reason to break this combination.
But the situation in Baden-Württemberg is more complicated. The current state government of Baden-Württemberg is governed jointly by the Green Party and the CDU. Many previous analyzes believe that this is also likely to be the structure of the next German government.
However, due to the differences between the ruling philosophy of the Green Party and the CDU, which is a center-right wing, especially in terms of climate protection, the spokesperson for the Green Party youth organization has made it clear that they refuse to follow cooperating with the CDU. If the Green Party in Baden-Württemberg leaves the CDU, then they can seek a consensus with the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party to form a “signal” government similar to Lafada’s.
The German media believe that if the CDU is really excluded from the new Baden-Württemberg government, and the CDU’s support rate in the coming months drops even further, after the general elections in September, Germany will not rule out similar situations. ” Traffic light “government. Once it becomes a reality, it will be the biggest impact on German politics in the last 20 years.
Given that current German Chancellor Merkel, who is about to complete her fourth term, has repeatedly stated that she will not seek re-election, the German general elections in September will undoubtedly become the most suspenseful since 2005.
Currently, the coalition parties most likely to compete for the post of prime minister are the Governor of North Rhine-Westphalia and CDU President Raschelt and the Governor of Bavaria and CDU President Zed. Judging by the polls, Zed’s current approval rating is way ahead. If the Coalition can continue to rule in the next government, it will most likely become Merkel’s successor.
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Editor-in-charge: Qi Qiqi
