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Original title: Stocks Bounce! How does the Shanghai Stock Index recover 3400 points in the market outlook? More than 70% of private equity believes it will fluctuate widely
Every reporter Yang Jian Every editor He Jianling
On March 11, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges opened higher and fluctuated higher. Driven by the strong rally in financial stocks and “group stocks,” the Shanghai index rose 79.09 points, or 2.36%, and recovered 3,400 points. Kweichow Moutai once jumped 5% and the stock price recovered 2,000 yuan. It is worth noting that the good news came from the semiconductor industry in the afternoon, causing chip stocks to rise sharply. In particular, third-generation semiconductor concept stocks strengthened across the board, also driving the rise in technology stocks.
The market has stabilized, does that mean it’s time to “pick up the deal”? How will it be interpreted next?
The “Daily Economic News” reporter noted that survey data from private equity rankings showed that 76.92% of private equity believe the market will be volatile in the future. The main difference in today’s A-share market is the liquidity downward inflection point and basic orientation. Who will win the battle at the turning point; if the collapse of the Baotuan leader is irreversible; whether the rise of the undervalued sector is sustainable, etc.
Visual drawing of Chinese map by Yang JingPrivate equity sentiment of 15.38% is optimistic
The reporter noted that 15.38% of the private placements surveyed tended to be optimistic. They believe that, in the context of the lack of a downward turning point in fundamentals and the release of performance reports from publicly traded companies, an upturn may have been conceived in restoring the current valuation. There is also 7.69% of private placements that are slightly pessimistic, who believe that the downward revision of the valuation of basic assets has not yet finished and may further cool market confidence.
Fang Chong, manager of the Huayan Investment Fund, pointed out that the main differences between A shares in recent years are the fact that the pooling of capital in recent years has led to high valuations of some major assets, and some small and medium high performance. Large market capitalization stocks have been wrongfully killed. For the market outlook, the market will shift between high and low, and underperforming companies will review their valuations, while the share prices of major assets revise their valuations downward or oscillate. In terms of market opportunities, you are more inclined to seek industries that begin to reverse or recover in the post-epidemic period, such as the shipping industry, the tourism and catering industry, and the film and television industry. . In addition, industries promoted by national industrial policies may also continue to pay attention, such as environmental protection and new energy. The risk factor to take into account during the year is monetary policy, since as the epidemic moderates, the monetary policies of various countries may change significantly in the second half of the year.
Guangzhou Roundstone Investment is a bit cautious about the market outlook, as it believes that the adjustment of “holding stocks” is large and fast, and the adjustment time is at least one month at this speed. When Wave A ends and Wave B rebounds, focus on oversold mid-cap stocks. If the bounce cannot reach a new high, it will enter a cautious trading stage. In addition, the adjustment time for the ChiNext and Shenzhen component index has reached the fourth week, and the probability of a rebound is slowly increasing. However, short-term volume can never continually amplify, and the “holding group stocks” tightening also caused the index’s first wave to fall more vigorously. Long-term, the Shanghai MACD Jin Cha Stock Exchange quarterly line, the one-quarter level rise is far from over, and the long-term uptrend remains unchanged. However, the current index correction has receded to last year’s big shock, indicating that the level of shock has risen and the likelihood of a strong shock over a period of time in the future is higher.
Beijing Star Stone Investment believes that, although the valuation level of A-shares is highly differentiated, from a data point of view, the differentiation is gradually converging. Since the Spring Festival, under inflation expectations, the index has fallen and the high-value sector has suffered setbacks. Popular “group stocks” in the previous period have undergone significant adjustments. However, more than 70% of the shares in the two cities have emerged, mostly concentrated in small and medium-sized companies with market capitalization. Therefore, regardless of the ratio of the CSI 1000 P / E ratio and the 300 P / E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen, or the ratio of the low P / E ratio ratio and the high P / E ratio ratio, the level of differentiation of valuation tends to converge. But to judge whether the style of the market has changed, we must look again.
Institutions rush to raise funds through bulk transactions
Recently, a private equity company told reporters that the recent short-term market downturn has exceeded expectations. The current market risk has been relatively adequately relieved. There is a willingness to increase positions in this position, and recently received some fully tight and very competitive trading platforms on the Quality Stocks bulk trading platform. The reporter noted that, judging by the bulk market transaction data, the number of transactions has increased significantly recently.
The data from the block trading platform shows that from March 1 to 10, only the number of block transactions on March 8 was less than 100, and the number of block transactions in the remaining days was more than 100, as of March There were 214 Large Transactions on the 3rd and 161 Large Transactions on March 10th. Before March, there were rarely more than 100 block transactions in a single day in the block trading market. This data shows that the market is active. From the perspective of receiving funds, institutional seats and hot money seats continue to emerge, many of which are dedicated to institutions to collect tokens through mass trading platforms.
For example, in the big transaction on March 1, Dier Laser was bought by institutional headquarters for 182 million yuan, and Stone Technology was bought for 110 million yuan. On March 3, Hikvision was bought by the institution’s dedicated seats for more than 2.426 billion yuan, Jingchen’s shares were bought by the agency seats for 519 million yuan, Transsion Holdings was bought by the agency for 145 million yuan, and Tianrongxin was bought by the agency. 103 million yuan. In the big transaction on March 4, Hikvision was again bought for institutional seats for 730 million yuan, Jingchen shares were bought for institutional seats for 118 million yuan, Career International was bought for institutional seats for 107 million yuan, Guanghong Technology was bought by the agency for 54 million yuan. In the big transaction on March 8, Tianbang shares were bought for institutional seats for 238 million yuan, and Sanqi Mutual Entertainment was bought for institutional seats for 127 million yuan. On March 9, Nanshan Aluminum was bought for institutional seats for 234 million yuan.
According to “Every Capital Eye” data, from March 3 to March 10 block transaction premium rate, ST Lucky’s block transaction premium rate on March 10 reached 23.61%. Saiwei Electronics March 8 The premium rate of a block transaction in Japan also reached 22.2%. The Wall Nuclear Materials block transaction premium rate on March 9 also reached 15.71%. The Midea Group’s premium rate reached 14.71% on March 9. The bulk premium rate reached 14.41% on March 9. The block transaction premium rates of Nanjing Xinbai, Publishing and Media, Daheng Technology, Suzhou Keda, and Shanxi Road and Bridge are all above 10%. However, there are also many stocks that have been sold at discounted prices. Among block operations from March 3 to March 10, Longxin Technology’s block operation discount rate on March 5 reached 27.54%, and Yuxin Technology’s block operation discount rate on March 5 it also reached 24.57%. Jianfan Biology’s block trade discount rate on March 3 was 23.67% and Hongxin Electronics’ block trade discount rate on March 8 was 21.4%.
