For the first time in history, the probability that domestic oil prices will rise eight times in a row to fill a box or spend 11.5 yuan more

Original title: For the first time in history! There is a high probability that domestic oil prices will rise for eight consecutive days, and a full tank can cost 11.5 yuan more.

Summary

[¡Por primera vez en la historia! Existe una alta probabilidad de que el precio del petróleo nacional suba ocho veces consecutivas para llenar una caja o gastar 11,5 yuanes adicionales]Today (3rd) at 24:00, the second window of adjustment of the price of national refined oil will open in the year. of the Ox. According to the institutional analysis, affected by favorable factors such as the sharp drop in crude production in the United States and the recovery in market demand, the current round of restrictions on the price of domestic oil will achieve “eight consecutive increases.” (China-Singapore Jingwei)

Today (3) 24:00, the second domestic year of the OxRefined oilThe price adjustment window will open. According to institutional analysis, due to the sharp drop in US crude oil production,marketThe impact of favorable factors such as the recovery in demand, the current round of domestic refined petroleum productsPrice limit“Eight consecutive raises” will be achieved.

In February, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut production on the basis of the OPEC + alliance production reduction agreement, and OPEC oil production fell. Affected by this, the internationalOil priceKeep going up, once broken 63American dollar/ barrel.Recently, becauseinvestmentThey are concerned that OPEC + may increase production from April and that international oil prices will gradually decline.

Early morning on March 2, Beijing time, New YorkProductLight Crude Delivered in AprilfuturespriceIt fell 0.86 dollars to close at 60.64 dollars a barrel, a decrease of 1.40%; London Brent crude futures for May delivery fell 0.73 dollars to close at 63.69 dollars a barrel, a decrease of 1.13%.

According to the Chinese Reuters website, OPEC will meet on Thursday and could discuss the possibility of allowing crude oil production of up to 1.5 million barrels per day to return to the market.AnalystZhang Zhaoxin believes that the market generally expects OPEC to cut productionmeetingThe production increase achieved is small,InlandChu JiRenewalStay loosebadgeWith the policies, industry players are optimistic and oil prices will continue to rise but never fall.

At 24:00 on the 3rd, national refined oil prices will adjust for the second time after the Spring Festival. Many agencies predict that domestic oil prices may rise again to achieve “eight consecutive rises.” Zhang Zhaoxin analyzed that since this price cycle, extremely cold weather in the United States has led to a sharp drop in oil production. crude, and the market is bullish on the supply side.attitudeOn the other hand, the economy recovered quickly after vaccination, demand was good and the market was bullish and sentiment was high. Affected by this, the calculated crude oil exchange rate in China has continuously risen in the positive range. . This round of refined petroleum productsRetail saleThe price cap is again facing an upward adjustment.

Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan noted that once the oil price increase is implemented, it will become the current price adjustment.mechanismThis is the first “eight consecutive rises” since the implementation in the spring of 2013. Li Yan predicted that at 24:00 on March 3,Diesel oilThe increase is about 270 yuan per ton, which is equal to 0.20-0.23 yuan per liter. Generally, filling 50 liters of gasoline in a private car costs between 10 and 11.5 yuan.

Zhongyu Information estimates that at 24:00 on March 3, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices will increase by 270 yuan and 265 yuan per ton, respectively, calculated on the basis of the current valuation range. For private cars, the capacity of a general fuel tank is estimated at 50 liters and a tank will be filled after March 3.gasolineIt will cost you an additional 10 yuan.

China-Singapore JingweiclientDuan noted that in 2020, domestic refined oil prices will end in “four consecutive rises.” In 2021, domestic oil prices have achieved “three consecutive increases”, with a total increase of 535 yuan / ton for gasoline and a total increase of 515 yuan / ton for diesel.

There will be three price adjustment window periods in March 2021, namely March 3, March 17, and March 31. The next round of price adjustment windows will open at 24:00 on March 17. Li Yan predicts that OPEC + may increase production slightly and Saudi Arabia may cancel additional production cuts. The next round of refined oil price adjustments is expected to be more likely.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Jiang Na believes that in terms of the market outlook, international crude oil futures mainly fluctuate at a high level, and the exchange rate remains in a positive range. After this round of “eight consecutive rises” is fulfilled, the expectation of “Nine consecutive rises” still exist. At the same time, some local Shandong refineries and major refineries will enter the planned maintenance phase from this month.Market ResourcesThe supply is relatively small, and with the epidemicEffective controlAnd the temperature is gradually warming up and the demand for refined oil in the downstream phases is improving. Jiang Na said that, in summary, the favorable market factors are relatively concentrated, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices continue to rise.

(Source: Sino-Singapore Jingwei)

(Editor in charge: DF372)