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Original Caption: Northeast to Release Birth Restrictions, Residents: Hoping for More Stimulus Policies to Dare to Live Longer
(Health Times reporter Wang Zhenya) “Completely liberalize childbirth without giving birth to a second child. What’s the difference if you don’t allow it?” “When the local economy is too backward, no one can stay.” Does Northeast China Prioritize Comprehensive Maternity Liberalization? “… Today, the issue of” prioritizing full fertility liberalization in the Northeast “has become the focus of social attention.
In response to the “Recommendations to solve the problem of population decline in Northeast China” presented by the National People’s Congress, the National Health Commission replied on February 18: It can be explored.
However, “the main issue is not opening a few children. What everyone fears is the subsequent parenting and financial problems. If you want to have a baby but do not dare to give birth, I hope there are more policies to support growth. of children, so that people have no worries. ” For this policy, a Health Times reporter asked nearly 10 residents, all of whom told reporters the same.
Dong Keyong, a professor at Tsinghua University’s Faculty of Social Sciences, told reporters that this may be a sign of the adjustment of the national fertility policy, but even if birth restrictions are fully liberalized in northeast China , the slow fertility rate may not be so. get better immediately. Alleviating the aging process of society and promoting social and economic development cannot depend on more children.
Lu Jiehua, a professor in the Department of Sociology at Peking University, believes that “the current population adjustment and delivery policy is difficult to divide by region, and birth restrictions should be liberalized across the country as soon as possible. Now liberalization may have some effect. Policies are less effective and more difficult to influence people’s reproductive behavior. “
Release the signal: population birth policy can be adjusted
Chen Huiying (pseudonym), a native of Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, is the only daughter in her family, works in Beijing, and is separated from her parents. The issue of parental pensions is becoming increasingly important. Chen Huiying told reporters, “The implementation of family planning policy in Northeast China is very thorough and most of them are just children in the local area. Now that my parents are older, I am out of town and my parents are not afraid to let me know when they are sick. I fear that I will worry about everything at home. The cousin who develops locally helps to take care of him, but this is not a long-term solution. “
“The northeast region has a high degree of social organization, in response to the national family planning policy, and local reproductive behavior has changed significantly,” said Dong Keyong, a professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University, at the Health Times reporter that it can be said that people born in 1960 are the first group to catch up. The main force of family planning, and now everyone is beginning to retire, the family is an only child, children’s pressure to support the elderly is very good.
According to the “Report on the Status of Information on the Aging Population and Professional Development of Aging in Liaoning Province in 2017,” the total registered population of Liaoning Province is 42.325 million, and the registered elderly population 60 years or older is 9,587,400, which is 22.65% of the total population. By international standards, this proportion of more than 10% is an aging society, and the proportion of Liaoning Province has reached a deeply aging society.
Even if it enters the “second complete child” stage, my country’s new population continues to decline every year, and the natural population growth rate is declining year by year. Beijing and the three northeastern provinces have already seen negative growth. According to the data, the number of births nationwide was 17.86 million in 2016, 17.23 million in 2017, 15.23 million in 2018, 14.65 million in 2019, and 10.35 million in 2020.
National population policy adjusts with changes in national conditions. “Population growth is inertial. The impact of population policies on the social and economic development of the country is long term, but it is not visible in the short term. Due to family planning, the aging rate and scale from China are unprecedented. “
Professor Dong Keyong said that if the policy is not adjusted, the next 30 years will be a period of acceleration in the aging of my country’s population. It is estimated that by 2050, our country will enter the plateau of population aging, and one of the three people will be 65 years or older. If the fertility rate is lower than expected, the aging rate will be faster.
Northeast residents:Even if the policy is liberalized，Nor will itto considerThree children, four children
“Even if the policy is liberalized, three, four or more children will not be considered.” Chen Huiying told reporters that as an only child, she has always felt very lonely, but she plans to have at most two children.
In the northeast, most young people think the same as Chen Huiying. “An income of three or four thousand a month, open labor, you must have money to support.” A couple who had just bought a house in Shenyang told reporters that we are both only children. Even if the policy is liberalized, we will only give birth to one. There is a bit of loneliness, but a child will have a better education and life will be a little better. Whatever the two children do will be compromised.
The low fertility rate and the willingness to give birth are a real dilemma facing the Northeast.
The National Health Commission announced the “Response to Recommendation No. 9839 of the Third Session of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress”, which shows that the total reduction of the population in Northeast China reflects general and systemic problems such as the economic system regional, industrial structure and social policies. For example, with the depletion of resources and the upgrading and transformation of national industries, large numbers of young workers cannot find satisfying jobs locally and can only flow to areas with better economies and higher wages. The delivery policy in the Northeast Border Area is relatively flexible (for example, Heilongjiang Province stipulates that both spouses can have three children if they are border area residents), but the willingness to have children is not high.
In 2017, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning’s birth rates were 6.22 ‰, 6.76 ‰ and 6.49 ‰, ranking in the bottom three in the country, well below the national average of 12.43 ‰. In 2018, the birth rate of the three northeastern provinces changed slightly. Heijiliao was 5.98 ‰, 6.62 ‰, and 6.39 ‰ in order, still ranking last. By international standards, less than 1.3% has been called the “ultra-low fertility rate.”
“The internationally recognized level of a reasonable population replacement rate is that a pair of children must have two children.” Dong Keyong said that to moderately facilitate the aging process, population policies must be adjusted. For policies to produce results, it is necessary to change the mindset of young people and the corresponding policies.
However, judging from the current situation in Northeast China, even if the policy is adjusted to liberalize fertility, the slow fertility rate cannot be reversed. Dong Keyong believes that “everyone has no motivation to have children, and the cost of raising them has increased. Even if we let it go, I am afraid that the slow fertility rate will not improve immediately.”
Expert advice:Simple liberalization of delivery policy will not have much effect and relevant policies need to be adjusted
Professor Yuan Xin, vice president of the China Society of Demography and professor at the Institute of Population and Development at Nankai University, told reporters: “In terms of raising the level of fertility, simply liberalizing the fertility policy will not do much. effect. The full two-child policy has been in place for 5 years. The effect of politics has been demonstrated. The key is that the relevant economic and social policies behind the birth policy also need to be adjusted, such as the current implementation of the collection and management of social maintenance fees methods, provincial population and family planning regulations, and economic incentive policies. that encourage fewer births. “
Any fertility policy has both pros and cons, and the fertility policy is no exception. Yuan Xin believes that whether it is full liberalization or conditional restrictions on birth. There is a close relationship between population growth and decline, economic development, and resource consumption, but we must continue to explore what this relationship is.
Professor Yuan Xin gave an example: In 2065, the world’s population will experience negative growth as a whole, so does declining population necessarily reduce global resource consumption? The answer is not necessarily. Because the improvement of the quality of life of modern people is supported by the increase in the consumption of resources per capita. Even if the population is small, the total consumption of social resources and natural resources may not necessarily decrease. Overpopulation will put long-term pressure on the environment and resources.
Similarly, by liberalizing the birth policy, will the economic and social development of Northeast China promote population growth? In this regard, Dong Keyong believes that we must first clarify the causal relationship between population and economic society. The northeast region is due to the fact that the pace of reform and opening-up lags behind the coastal areas and the economy is relatively lagged. As a result, many young people go to other cities to develop, wages are low, people cannot afford to raise children, and the willingness to have children is low. Even if fertility is liberalized, first, the population will not increase, and second, whether an increase in population can promote local economic and social development requires long-term observation.
Professor Yuan Xin believes that the low fertility rate in northeast China can be proven first, which is in line with the population development law. As for places with high fertility rates, especially those where the young and old are poor, these places have just emerged from poverty. Don’t fall into the trap of getting poorer. Is the population’s birth policy one size fits all? everybody? Whether to liberalize birth restrictions across the country, the relevant state departments still need to consider carefully.
“The decision-making power over birth and death must be returned to individuals and families, the fertility policy of the population must be coordinated with the level of economic and social development of the country, and the fertility policy must be natural” . Said the new original.
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