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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 8Can the tit-for-tat deadlock between the US and Iran be resolved?
Xinhua News Agency reporter
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said on the 7th that only after the United States has effectively lifted sanctions against Iran and verified and confirmed by Iran, will Iran be able to once again comply with the global agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. On the same day, the US media released a video interviewed by US President Biden, who declared that the US would not lift sanctions on Iran first to negotiate with Iran.
Analysts noted that the latest statements by the leaders of the two countries continue their previous positions, which can be described tit for tat. The outlook for the Iranian nuclear deal cannot be optimistic in the short term. However, both sides have their own needs for the Iranian nuclear deal, and other relevant parties are working hard to promote the talks, so there is still hope of resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Iran is confident
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran news agency, Khamenei said on the same day that Iran only recognizes actual actions taken by the United States to lift sanctions, not the content of “language and paper.” This is clear Iranian policy and it will not be changed.
Analysts noted that Khamenei’s latest statement demonstrates Iran’s firm and consistent stance, that is, Iran will not first grant a concession on the issue of the Iran nuclear deal, and Iran’s ability to maintain this position also has its own ” trust”.
Lu Jin, an expert on Iran at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that although Iran faces economic difficulties under the US sanctions, there is still room for continued resistance, and the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal will also help. gives Iran a moral advantage.
While making no concessions, Iran continues to pressure the United States. The hard-line-led Iranian parliament passed a bill late last year that stipulates that if the United States does not relax sanctions against Iran within a certain period of time, the Iranian government should take a tougher stance. Farahani, a member of the presidium of the Iranian parliament, made clear on January 9 this year that if the United States does not lift sanctions by February 21, Iran will expel IAEA inspectors based on this bill.
Furthermore, the Iranian presidential elections are scheduled to be held in June this year. Prior to this, the unilateral withdrawal of the United States and the resumption of sanctions have caused the Iranian hardliner to gain momentum in the country. If the new Biden administration maintains sanctions against Iran, the Iranian election will be more favorable. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif warned in an interview with the national media that in view of the approval of the bill by the Iranian parliament and the electoral climate after the Iranian New Year (March 21), “the time remaining for Americans it is running out. “
America won’t let go
During the election campaign, Biden promised that after winning the election, he would renegotiate the terms of the Iran nuclear deal and allow the United States to revert to the deal, which once gave Iran hope for the Biden administration. However, Biden’s latest statement shows that only if Iran first re-complies with the Iran nuclear deal can the United States lift the sanctions.
In fact, United States Secretary of State Blincoln and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan have also expressed this position many times before, saying they will push for a broader agreement involving missile capabilities. Iranian ballistics and regional actions based on Iran. nuclear deal.
Analysts believe there are many reasons why the United States insists that Iran should take the “first step.”
First, the Biden administration’s negotiating team on the Iranian nuclear issue has yet to be formed. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the US think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible State Governance and an expert on Iran, said the Biden administration just appointed Robert Marley as a special envoy for Iran late last month, and Blinken asked the team from Marley. Specific strategies can be formulated and introduced after training.
Second, domestic politics requires a tough stance. Parsi noted that because Republicans are opposed to Marley’s appointment and the Biden administration’s return to the Iran nuclear deal, asking Iran to take the first step can make Biden of the Democratic Party appear stronger at home.
Third, the United States believes that its tough stance may force Iran to sign a new agreement with broader content. James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, a US think tank, said supporters of the new deal believe Iran will commit to US sanctions.
Negotiations are still awaited
Lu Jin believes that the United States and Iran have recently expressed their harsh attitudes. Both parties are testing each other’s results and will not easily compromise. Therefore, it is difficult for the Iranian nuclear issue to make substantial progress in the short term.
However, analysts believe that some favorable conditions still exist for the resumption of relevant negotiations between the United States and Iran. Both the United States and Iran are ready to negotiate. The United States does not want Iran to continue its nuclear activities. Iran hopes the United States will lift its sanctions as soon as possible. Therefore, restarting negotiations is still the best option for both parties.
According to American media reports, the White House National Security Council discussed the Iranian nuclear issue on the 5th. Sources said one of the questions was whether the United States should return to the nuclear deal with Iran before the Iranian presidential elections in June this year.
Acton believes that Iran’s ability to withstand the escalating crisis is stronger than that of the United States, and that the United States’ goal of using pressure to force Iran to agree to more conditions is not easy to achieve. If the Biden administration does not return to the Iran nuclear deal as soon as possible, Iran will further enhance its nuclear activities to gain more bargaining chips. Even if the United States can reach a new deal with Iran by then, its restrictions on Iran can only be more limited than the original deal.
Furthermore, the Iranian nuclear deal is not just an agreement between the United States and Iran. Other signatories also expect the Iranian nuclear deal to continue. Recently there has been frequent interaction between the parties. On the 5th, the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Great Britain held a videoconference with US Secretary of State Brinken on the Iranian nuclear issue. Iranian President Khalibaf will pay a three-day visit to Russia on the 7th, during which he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and deliver a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Lu Jin pointed out that it is the consensus of Russia and European countries to uphold the Iran nuclear deal. If Iran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, some countries in the region may take action and trigger a regional nuclear arms race. Both Russia and Europe will work to resolve the current dilemma of the Iranian nuclear deal and allow all parties to implement the deal. (Note holder: Liu Jian; participating reporters: Liu Pinran, Chen Lin)
【Correction error】
【Editor in charge: Li Xuelei】
