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original title:Reinforcing bars Oscillation operation main source: original
Winter reserve is coming
Last week, rebar futures prices rose unilaterally. As of Monday, the 2105 rebar futures contract fell 147 yuan / t to 4,348 yuan / t. In cash terms, the price in Hangzhou is 4290 yuan / ton, the price in Guangzhou is 4800 yuan / ton, and the price in Tianjin is 4170 yuan / ton. The spot price is generally stable and increasing.
Seasonal decline in demand
With the gradual cooling of the climate and scattered outbreaks of the epidemic, short-term demand for construction materials has been somewhat suppressed and apparent demand has remained low, unchanged from the previous month. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally.
But judging from the industry data, the fresh start and real estate construction remains strong. From January to November 2020, the accumulated year-on-year growth rate of the real estate area just started was -2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from January to October, and maintained a rebound state for 9 consecutive months. In November 2020, the newly opened real estate area increased 3.52% year-on-year in the month, which was the same as in October. The area of real estate construction has also maintained a similar trend. From January to November 2020, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the real estate construction area was 3.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of January to October. In November 2020, the real estate construction area increased 11.92% year-on-year.
Previously, the market was concerned that after the introduction of the “three red lines” policy, real estate companies would have financing difficulties, which would affect the pace of land acquisition and development by real estate companies. However, it is understood that under the new “three red lines” regulations, the best decision for real estate companies is to accelerate the development and realization of existing land, while slowing down the acquisition of land, in order to restore balance and meet the “three red lines” compliance requirements. the objective of.
This conclusion can also be confirmed from statistical data. In November 2020, the data for new real estate startups is very strong, and the price difference between Panluo and rebar is also at the highest level in the same period in history.
In general, under the removal of the “three red lines”, real estate companies are more inclined to start construction quickly. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the demand for rebar is likely to remain at a relatively high level, which will constitute some support for the contract price of rebar in 2105.
Seasonal decrease in supply
Last week, the actual blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 83.3%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of the Tangshan blast furnace was 80.6%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous month. Rebar production was 3.49 million tonnes, a decrease of 10,000 tonnes month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Among them, the long process production was 3 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous month; short-process production was 490,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month.
At present, the global rebar production remains stable. Recently, the profits of the steel industry have fallen and the number of routine maintenance work in the steelworks has increased at the end of the year. The prevention and control of the epidemic in Hebei has also led to passive production by steel mills to some extent. Therefore, long process production is expected to maintain narrow fluctuations. The benefits of electric ovens remain high. Although electric furnace steel companies have strong incentives to increase production, under the influence of scarce scrap resources and reduced electricity from steel companies, short-process production is expected to remain high and stable, and the margin for recovery is relatively limited.
Livestock reduction is better than in previous years
As the Spring Festival approached, demand weakened seasonally, along with the impact of cold weather, the epidemic repeated itself, and rebar stocks continued to build last week. Last week, total rebar inventory was 6.55.3 million tons, an increase of 145,200 tons from the previous month. Among them, the social inventory was 3,955,800 tons, a monthly increase of 317,100 tons; Steel mill inventories were 259.72 tons, a monthly increase of 13,400 tons. The large accumulation of social inventory indicates that real demand is under pressure, the continued accumulation of industrial warehouses reflects poor delivery from steel mills. In the context of current high rebar prices, traders are less motivated to buy winter stocks and future inventory pressure from factories and warehouses will increase.
In summary, current demand for rebar is weakening seasonally and supply is expected to decline in the event of losses at some northern mills. In general, the rebar market has weak supply and demand. After experiencing a strong increase in the previous period, the price of rebar will continue to fluctuate in a wide range. (Author’s unit: Qianhai Futures)
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