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Original title: Ensuring urban and rural residents’ “basket of vegetables” demands and price conditions to maintain stability Source: People’s Daily Overseas Edition
Conditional prices remain stable
Data from the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the National Statistics Office on January 11 showed that in December 2020, the CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, food prices increased by 1.2% and non-food prices remained stable. For the entire year 2020, national consumer prices will rise 2.5% compared to the previous year. Relevant sources pointed out that in 2020, the general increase in the CPI will show a pattern of high before low, and the annual increase will be within a reasonable operating range, completing the price control objective. Then prices may fluctuate due to seasonal factors, the new corona pneumonia epidemic, etc., but the conditions are generally stable to remain stable.
Month-to-month and year-to-year CPI changed from descending to ascending
In December 2020, the CPI ratios both month-on-year and year-on-year have gone from low to high. According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2020, all regions and departments will consolidate and expand the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Consumer demand continues to grow. At the same time, affected by the special weather and rising costs, the CPI has gone from falling. go up.
Specifically, the inter-monthly CPI went from a decrease of 0.6% in the previous month to an increase of 0.7%, of which the price of food went from a decrease of 2.4% the previous month to an increase 2.8%, affecting the increase in the CPI by 0.62 percentage points; A fall of 0.5% was transformed into a rise of 0.2%, of which food prices went from a decrease of 2.0% last month to a rise of 1.2%, which affected the increase in the CPI by approximately 0.26 percentage points.
As the main factor driving the CPI increase in December 2020, the prices of meat, eggs and vegetables in food have increased to varying degrees. According to Dong Lijuan’s analysis, from a month-to-month perspective, the costs of production, storage and transportation of fresh fruits and vegetables have increased due to continuous low temperatures, and prices have increased by 8.5% and 3%. 5% respectively. With the arrival of New Years Day and the Spring Festival, consumer demand increases seasonally and food costs have increased. As a result, pork prices changed from a 6.5% drop last month to a 6.5% increase, lamb prices changed flat last month to 2.6% and prices of Eggs changed from a 1.6% drop last month to a 2.9% increase.
With regard to the entire year 2020, the CPI has experienced large fluctuations. Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Zhixin Investment research institute, analyzed to our reporter that the year-on-year increase in the CPI gradually fell to a low level at the end of the year after peaking at 5.4% in January 2020. Obviously, the main influencing factor is the fluctuation of food prices. Overall, the annual growth rate of 2.5% was within a reasonable operating range, achieving the annual price control objective.
A sharp increase in agricultural products is unlikely
As the Spring Festival approaches, how do you see the price trend in the aftermath? Meng Wei, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that due to the “holiday effect,” prices may go up in stages. However, due to the continued recovery in live pig production and supply and the general supply of vegetables, price increases during the holidays are expected to be modest.
“With the support of festival consumption and rising production and distribution costs, the overall price of agricultural products is expected to fluctuate seasonally, but the possibility of a sharp increase is unlikely. We must continue to pay attention to the impact. low temperatures, rain and snow, and the epidemic in the normal production and marketing of agricultural products. ” Said Tang Ke, Director of the Market and Information Technology Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Speaking of the prices of specific agricultural products, Tang Ke said that pork prices may rise slightly due to demand before the Spring Festival, and stabilize and fall after the Spring Festival. Stocks of beef cattle and sheep have increased from the previous quarter to the end of the third quarter of 2020, but the import is affected by the epidemic with greater uncertainty. Affected by the peak consumption season, the price of beef and mutton is constantly increasing. The launch of aquaculture products is accelerating and prices for aquatic products are expected to remain stable but weak. The total supply capacity of winter and spring vegetables is constantly increasing and the prices of vegetables will be maintained on a regular basis. Overall fruit yield is abundant, market supply is sufficient, and prices will continue to rise slightly seasonally due to demand.
Lian Ping believes that the absolute value of the live pig population is still at a relatively low level, and it is expected that after the second quarter of this year, the number of slaughters will return to the annual average level; and winter is the peak season for pork consumption, consumption growth may cause short-term pork supply and demand to decline. The wholesale price of pork in 2021 is expected to experience a period of high volatility in the first quarter and show a mild downward trend supported by the continued narrowing of the supply gap.
Ensuring the “vegetable basket” needs of urban and rural residents
Throughout the year, Tang Ke said that in 2020, China’s grain production will have another bumper harvest, rice and wheat stocks will remain at record highs, pig production capacity recovery momentum is good, production of livestock and poultry, fruits and vegetables is stable, and the domestic market for agricultural products is expected to remain stable in 2021.
“Going forward, with the orderly improvement in the economic situation, employment and consumption will gradually return to normal, and the core CPI is expected to show a steady recovery to a year-on-year low base level.” Lian Ping said that in the aftermath, the global economic recovery and the further recovery in domestic demand will develop together. Driven by strong forces, price fluctuations are expected to gradually return to economic fundamentals, and IPC trading is expected to stabilize after they recover.
In response to ensuring the stability of supply and prices during the Spring Festival, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued a notice recently, emphasizing the full implementation of the governor’s accountability system. food safety and the greater responsibility system of the “vegetable basket”, strengthening the management of important reserve products such as meat and vegetables to guarantee the supply and prices of important basic products such as cereals, oils, meat, eggs , vegetables, fruits, milk, etc. have worked without problems. According to the characteristics of the festival, organize production and sales to meet people’s diverse consumption needs. Strengthen food safety supervision, product quality supervision and price supervision to protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. The linking mechanism to link social assistance and safety regulations to rising prices will be launched at the right time to ensure that the basic living standards of people in need are not reduced due to rising prices.
Tang Ke pointed out that in the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take specific measures to do a good job in producing and supplying important agricultural products during the festival, prevent the problem of poor production and sales due to epidemics. sudden or catastrophic weather, and effectively protect the “vegetable basket” of urban and rural residents. product demand. At the same time, continue to strengthen market monitoring and early warning and information disclosure of small agricultural products such as onion, ginger and garlic, effectively guiding production and sales and promoting the smooth functioning of the market. (Reporter Qiu Haifeng)
“People’s Daily Overseas Edition” (version 03 on January 12, 2021)
