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Weekly Market Highlights and Important News
1. Key events
1. Democrats won a big victory in Georgia and took control of the Senate
According to CNN and The Associated Press, Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated Republican David Perdue in the second round of the Georgia Senate. This will allow Democrats to take control of the Senate for the first time in six years; Ossoff’s victory, combined with Raphael Warnock’s earlier defeat of Republican Kelly Loeffler, will allow the Republican and Democratic parties to occupy 50 Senate seats, however, due to the election of Vice President Kamala. Harris can cast a swing vote and the balance of power in the Senate will rest with the Democrats; As the media announced the results of the Georgia campaign, supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol and interrupted the congressman’s response to Joe. · The certification and approval process of Biden’s election results; now, Democrats will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, so they can smoothly confirm the cabinet and judicial candidates nominated by Biden. Part of Biden’s legislative agenda will also be easier to pass. However, with so few Democrats heading the Senate, major legislation going forward will continue to require Republican support. The Democratic Party’s conquest of control of the Senate will raise market expectations for the launch of stimulus policies or support precious metals.
2. The United States Congress certified Biden as the next president, and the violent conflict did not prevent the election from being resolved.
The US Congress officially recognized Joe Biden as the next US President early Thursday morning local time, thus ending the two months in which incumbent President Trump challenged the election results but failed. . This defiant behavior eventually turned into a violent incident on Capitol Hill in the process of the congressional meeting to certify the results of the presidential elections. As a Democrat, Biden’s victory in the general election was resolved. Members of the House of Representatives and Senate withstood the final round of opposition to the November 3 election results raised by a handful of Republicans on Trump’s behalf. The deliberation process was interrupted for several hours as protesters supporting Trump crossed the cordon, surrounded the House of Representatives hall and entered the Senate hall, prompting members to flee in search of safety. After authorities regained control of the Capitol, Congress resumed its work Wednesday night, conducted two rounds of voting, and finally confirmed Biden’s victory early Thursday morning. Vice President Pence presided over the certification of the 306 electoral votes that Biden had obtained; he has taken the opposite side of Trump and called for the prosecution of the protesters who stormed the Capitol. On Wednesday, he also challenged Trump’s intentions, telling lawmakers in a letter that he would not try to unilaterally block the certification process. The dust settled in the US presidential election shows that support for precious metals is weakened by the chaos of the general election.
2. Market-focused monitoring
The central bank’s monetary policy, global trade policy, inflation expectations (the scale and timing of the new US bailout plan and the progress of vaccines), and the trend of Sino-US relations after the elections.
Summary of Investment Banks Opinions
See more precious metals:
1, Jan 6, 2021 (see more gold prices) OCBC BankEconomist Howie Lee said that the fundamentals of the gold market have not changed, interest rates remain low, inflation expectations are rising and the US dollar is weak, which still supports gold in the medium and long term.
2, January 5, 2021 (see long gold price) UBSThe strategist said: “We remain bullish on gold. The macro context that supported the price of gold last year has continued through this year. Key drivers, such as buying gold to achieve portfolio diversification, still have room for development this year, which should continue to support gold prices. “
3, January 4, 2021 (see long gold prices) TD SecuritiesHe said that the state of consolidation in the gold market is almost over. With the critical election in Georgia in the United States and the final counting of electoral votes in the US general elections, risk aversion in the market will rise again. In terms of current macroeconomic performance and falling real interest rates, gold prices remain relatively cheap.
4, January 1, 2021 (see long gold price) CommerzbankAnalyst Daniel Briesemann also believes that rising inflation will support higher gold prices. “The likelihood that Democrats will win these two seats is increasing, which means that Democrats will become the majority in the Senate, which will facilitate the Biden government.”
5, January 1, 2021 (see long gold prices)He said that under much uncertainty, gold was able to reach a new record. Low interest rates and a weak US dollar will drive up gold prices. “Although the vaccines have made market sentiment more positive, gold prices are still expected to rise this year, driven by inflation expectations and negative real interest rates.”
Bearish Gold Price:
1, Jan 4, 2021 (Gold Price Bearish) Barclays BankThe rebound in real interest rates is believed not to be good for gold, and is expected to fall by the end of the year. It is estimated that by the end of the year gold will be around US $ 1,750 an ounce and the price of copper will be around US $ 3.4-3.5.
Non-farm outlook:
Forecasts from 26 large investment banks show that the expectations of the major investment banks for the growth of the non-farm employment population in December are again negative, and the expected gap between investment banks is large. Specifically, the US non-farm employment growth rate is expected to be between 150,000 and 150,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 6.6% and 7.2%, and the average annual rate hourly wage growth is between 4.3% and 4.6%.
(The author is the deputy general manager of Zhaojin Futures)
[Yi Cai No.]What is it? ——Practice the CBN content platform strategy, open the resources of its multimedia platforms, rely on the expert resources accumulated in the financial field over the years, and work with professional thought leaders to create an exchange of thoughts of high quality, value communication and ability in the financial field. Growing ecology.
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