Action outlook for 2021: structural characteristics continue to strengthen

Original title: A-share outlook for 2021: structural characteristics continue to strengthen

A shares in 2020 finished off successfully and the overall market performed well throughout the year. The three main indices increased by more than 10% during the year.Market Business Growth IndexLeadership soared 65%, a record in the last five years,food and drink, New source,tax freePhotovoltaic power and other industries have an outstanding performance. The individual actions are clearly differentiated. The number of “double shares” reached 270, and the list of “100 yuan shares” was further expanded. At the same time, only 54% of individual stocks achieved annual growth and 307 stocks fell more than 30% for the entire year.

Situated at the starting point of the new year, the industry generally believes that the overall internal and external economic environment in 2021 is better than in 2020. Considering the current valuation level and liquidity environment, the structural characteristics are expected to the market continue to strengthen.

Major Index Closed Strong, Individual Stocks Intensified Differentiation

Looking back at 2020, the A-share market has clearly differentiated itself. While the index has generally risen, the performance of sectors and individual stocks has shown large differences.

The data shows that in 2020,The Shanghai Composite IndexThe annual increase was 13.86%, an increase of 422 points;Shenzhen Component IndexThe annual growth rate was 38.73%, an increase of 4,040 points; The ChiNext index had the most outstanding performance, with an annual increase of 64.96% and an increase of 1,168 points, setting a new record since July 2015.companyThe performance of the corresponding index was significantly higher than that of the corresponding sector. The growth rate of the ChiNext 50 Index reached 88.74% and that of the Science and Technology Index 50 reached 39.30%.CSI 300The annual increase was 27.21%.

The behavior of individual stocks showed a more evident differentiation trend. According to data, as of December 31, 2020, theNew crotchAnd continueDividendsThe reinvestment method is used to calculate the rights. Among the 3,730 shares with comparable data in the A shares market, 2005 have achieved a positive increase in the year, representing around 54%, 1,719 shares have a negative increase. All A-share stocks went up and down throughout the yearMiddle numberIt is 2.97%.

Specifically, there are 270 annual “double stocks” that have increased by more than 100%, another 64 stocks have increased by more than 200% annually, and 20 stocks have increased by more than 300% annually, the highest increase (excluding new shares listed in 2020, same below) Shares areIntech Medical,theirpriceThe increase was as high as 1428%. From an industry perspective, “double stocks” in the pharmaceutical and biological sector are the most concentrated. The data shows that Shenwan’s tier one industries are used as statistical standards,Share39 “duplicate stocks” came from the medical and biological sector; In addition, electrical equipment, mechanical equipment,food and drinkThe number of “duplicate shares” also exceeds 20 in sectors such as He Electronics.

At the same time, the list of “hundred yuan shares” was further expanded. The data shows that as of now, the number of shares priced above 100 yuan has reached 96, which is a 123% increase compared to 43 shares in 2019. Among them,Kweichow moutaiIt topped the list with a price of 1998 yuan / share,Maiwei shares、Zhuo ShengweiThe stock price exceeded 500 yuan, which was 677.01 yuan and 570.54 yuan respectively.

However, while quality stocks rose sharply, there were 307 stocks that fell more than 30% throughout the year, and 55 of them fell more than 50%. Among the 307 shares mentioned above, there are 59 * ST shares, and 18 are ST shares, which together account for more than a quarter.

　　the companyPerformanceThe huge amount caused by the declineLost, Or one of the reasons for the stock price drop. Stocks with the biggest decline of the year* ST UniversalAs an example, the company acquired Universal Starlight in 2016 and was transformed into a comprehensive fashion consumer, however, due to subsequent rapid changes in the central US market, the company suffered huge losses in 2018 and 2019, with losses of 1.83 billion yuan and 1.83 billion yuan respectively. 299 million yuan. In 2020, due to the sale of assets,* ST UniversalBusiness scale has shrunk, but the 2020 third quarterly report shows that the company has not yet been able to rid itself of losses. The decline continued.* ST Tianxia、* ST ShidaThere are also problems such as declining performance and deteriorating goodwill.

The structural situation highlights the outlook for the “spring eruption market”

Looking ahead to 2021, industry experts noted that this year’s internal and external environments are generally better than 2020. However, taking into account the current valuation level and liquidity environment, the overall market it is judged with caution. The earnings effect will also gradually shift from increased valuation to earnings growth.

Macroeconomic level,Guosen ValuesHe said the global recovery will resonate and the rebound in nominal growth will bring with it the elasticity of fundamental earnings of listed companies. All A shares are expected to be published in 2021.Net profitThe growth rate will rise to 16% .And according toMinsheng Bank of Canada FundCorporate profits in some industries are expected to maintain growth of more than 30% or accelerate significantly in 2021.

The return of macro liquidity to neutrality in 2021 has formed a relatively unified consensus in the market. Wanhe Securities noted thatcoinAfter the policy returns to normal, there is no riskinterest rateOn the positive side, “special monetary policy” during the epidemic will be withdrawn and macro liquidity shortages will become the main issue in 2021.

In this context, market differentiation may further intensify Qianhai Open SourcebackgroundChief economist Yang Delong said that the bull market of “ups and downs” in the past is gone. The future performance of the bull market will be that the index has not risen much and the share prices of some white horse stocks have repeatedly set new highs. “Good companies continue to grow and bad companies continue to be marginalized,” he said.

Structural opportunities may become the focus of market exploration in 2021. Feng Bo, Vice President of E Fund and General Manager of the Research department, previously stated that although the market in general is overvalued, many companies can be found with levels of Reasonable valuations and better investment returns can be seen through value growth. Therefore, there are many structural opportunities in 2021.

Among them, cyclical stocks driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals have received manyBrokerageOptimistic.Bank of China securitiesThe elasticity of demand for cyclical stocks in 2021 is noted to be supported by real estate and consumption abroad.supplyThe finish is relatively stiff and industry prices are expected to continue rising. Galaxy Securities also predicts that, based on factors such as the earnings cycle, epidemic, and global monetary policy, cyclical stock opportunities in the first half of 2021 will be stronger than those in the first half of 2020.

Furthermore, institutions are mostly optimistic about the first trading day after the new year and the ensuing spring turmoil. According to estimates by Yuekai Securities, by tracking the performance of the A-share market over the past three years, the average monthly rise and fall of the index from December of the first year to February of the following year may exceed the average monthly rise and fall of all the year most of the time. The market for “spring restlessness” exists.Haitong ValuesHe said that considering that the policy does not take a sharp turn and the bull market pattern remains unchanged, for the spring market design, medium and short-term big finance is better, and the medium and long-term main line continues being the technology and the internal demand that represent the transformation and updating.

(Source: Daily economic information)

(Responsible editor: DF520)