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New energy vehicles | Tesla: The national model Y is on the market, how will the price drop affect it?
CITIC valuesthe study
On January 1, 2021, the domestic Tesla Model Y will be launched, with an entry price of 339,900 yuan, a drop of 148,000 yuan from the imported version, which exceeds market expectations. The price of the Model Y produced in the country has been significantly lower than that of the BBA fuel vehicles of the same level. China sales in 2021 are expected to exceed 180,000 units, and medium and long-term steady-state sales are expected to exceed 400,000 units. China’s electrified supply chain has leading manufacturing capabilities and obvious cost advantages. After the localization of Tesla, it will accelerate the acquisition of local parts. After the localization of the Model Y, it will promote production and sales to a new level. We continue to recommend that you have competitiveness and global benefits. Leading company in the supply chain.
▍The listing price of the domestic Model Y started at 339,900 yuan, a drop that exceeded market expectations.
The domestically-made Tesla Model Y will be officially launched on January 1, 2021. The long-life, high-performance versions are priced at 339,900 and 369,900 yuan respectively, which is significantly lower than the previous imported version at 148,100 and 165,100 yuan. , exceeding market expectations. . The domestically produced Model Y is a midsize luxury SUV, and the current entry price is lower than BBA models of the same tier, and the price advantage is obvious.
▍Impact on Tesla: Take production and sales to a new level.
It is estimated that 92,000 of Tesla’s global sales of 500,000 in 2020 will be contributed by the Model Y produced by the US plant. Considering that the production capacity of the Shanghai plant is expected to increase faster than the From the US, Model Y production from the Shanghai plant is expected to exceed 180,000 in 2021. Tesla is expected to sell 920,000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, + 85% year-on-year. In the medium and long term, based on the perspective of comparing competitive BBA fuel vehicle sales, we maintain our previous judgment that the long-term steady state annual sales of the Model Y in the Chinese market exceed 400,000 vehicles.
▍Impact on the New Energy Vehicle Industry:
The market is concerned that Tesla models will continue to cut prices, which will squeeze other brands. We believe that Tesla is more of a stimulus for the new energy vehicle industry: 1) The penetration rate of electrification is less than 6%, the industry is in a rapid growth stage, and the market space is huge; 2) Tesla prices continue to fall, powering smart electric cars. The popularity of electric vehicles promotes consumer acceptance of electric vehicles and accelerates industrial transformation; 3) Tesla leads the industry in smart electrical functions and promotes China’s electrification and smart supply chain capabilities to become more mature. Other auto companies will also benefit. It is easier to make “good products” with “good quality and low price”.
▍Continue to understand the Tesla supply chain and look for companies with global competitiveness.
After Tesla achieved domestic production in late 2019, the proportion of local procurement of parts and components increased significantly. The Model Y, as the new “explosive model” after the Model 3, will continue to promote the development of the industry, and the low-cost advantage of Chinese manufacturing will continue to play a role. Tesla’s production and sales have high growth and high certainty, and the high-quality supply chain goal clearly benefits from the performance flexibility and industry demonstration effect it brings.
▍Risk factor’s:
New energy vehicle sales are not as good as expected; rapid changes in software technology and patent risks; Traditional car companies in Europe and the United States are developing electric platform models, leading to intensified industrial competition; potential risks of low probability safety accidents.
▍Investment strategy:
The national Model Y price cut exceeds expectations and continues to promote the electrification of the industry. China’s electrification supply chain will play a central role in the cost reduction process. Leaders at all links in the supply chain are globally competitive and are expected to benefit from the global increase in electric vehicles and related investment opportunities Great clarity, including:
1) Lithium battery link:It was Ningde(drums),BYD（A + H） 、Enjie shares(Diaphragm),Defang Nano(LFP material),Putailai(negative electrode),Xinzhoubang(Electrolyte),Blessing materials(Electrolyte), it is recommended to pay attentionKodali(case),Xiangfenghua(negative electrode);
2) Upstream equipment and resources:Leading intelligence(team),Hangke technology(team),Ganfeng Lithium, It is recommended to pay attentionYahua Group；
3) In the field of thermal management, recommend:Sanhua smart control、Yinlun shares,AttentionAoteca；
4) Parts:Tuopu Group、Fuyao glass、Huayu Automobile、Xusheng Stock。
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