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(Original Caption: Renowned Anti-Epidemic Doctors Postoperative Retinal Detachment, Aier Ophthalmology Stock Price May Be “Starting the Year”)
At the beginning of the new year, White Horse Stock Aier Ophthalmology (300015.SZ) with a market value of 300 billion yuan came across a “black swan.”
Ai Fen, director of the emergency department of Wuhan Central Hospital, a well-known anti-epidemic doctor, said that the cataract was treated at the Wuhan Aier Department of Ophthalmology, which caused a retinal detachment in the right eye. He questioned the inadequate treatment of the Wuhan Aier ophthalmology department, “the implantation of the lens was performed without examination of the fundus, which delayed the treatment time.” After the operation, Ai Fen reported to the hospital that his vision was blurry but it did not attract attention and he lost the opportunity to remedy it.
After the incident was exposed, in the face of Ai Fen’s doubts, on the night of December 31, the Wuhan Aier Ophthalmological Hospital issued a statement on its official Weibo stating that Ai’s preoperative examination, surgery, and postoperative review Fen met medical standards. The results of the preoperative B ultrasound and the OCT examination provided by the patient in the three best hospitals showed that the retina of the fundus was flat; the results of the postoperative follow-up also showed that the patient’s vision improved significantly and the fundus retina was flat.
However, the clarification of Aier Ophthalmology did not calm the incident and public opinion continued to ferment.
In the early morning hours of January 2, the Aier Ophthalmology WeChat public account issued a notice stating that the Aier Eye Hospital Group attached great importance to the diagnosis and treatment of Ms Ai Fen’s eye disease in the Wuhan Aier Eye Hospital and established a group investigation team immediately, which was already in 2021. He rushed to travel to Wuhan overnight on January 1 to be investigated.
As an institutional group share, Aier Ophthalmology has always been regarded as a model for the growth of A-share white horse shares. Since listing, the market value has increased from 6.9 billion yuan to 300 one billion yuan. But now that the black swan is in, market participants are hoping that their stock price could suffer a “new year’s catastrophe.”
Cataract surgery is an important business sector
“The Aier Ophthalmology incident can be compared to the impact of the liquor plasticizer incident. Cataracts are an important business sector of Aier Ophthalmology. If the business takes a hit, it will have a greater impact on the company. Also, this incident involves celebrities in society. “The pressure from public opinion is enormous, which amounts to a huge negative announcement, which greatly damages the reputation of the hospital. Although the final result of the investigation has not been published, it is definitely great bad news for the company,” said a private equity source from southern China.
Public data shows that in 2017, Aier’s ophthalmic cataract surgery project revenue was 1.714 billion yuan, which is 23.77%. In 2018, the revenue was 1.544 billion yuan, which is 19.29%. In 2019, the revenue was 17.6. 100 million yuan, accounting for 17.62%. In terms of growth rate, year-on-year growth in 2018 was 9.01% and year-on-year growth in 2019 was 13.97%.
The 2019 annual report shows that cataract surgery is the third largest business sector, while in 2017 and 2018, it is the second largest business sector.。
It should be noted thatIn the 2018 and 2019 annual reports, Aier Ophthalmology mentioned the contribution of the transformation of the cataract business.
The 2018 annual report indicated that during the reporting period, revenue from cataract project services increased 9.01% year-over-year, primarily due to the increase in applications such as high-end multifocal lenses and femtosecond cataract surgery. Affected by the national implementation of the transition of integration and adjustment of the health insurance policy of urban residents and rural cooperative health care, and the optimization and adjustment of the health insurance spending structure in some provinces and regions, the growth rate of cataract operations has slowed in stages.
The 2019 annual report said:In the last two years, cataract projects have been under the control of health insurance policies and the growth rate of surgical volume has slowed down in stages. With the transformation and improvement of consumption, progress has been made in the transformation and improvement of the cataract business. Refractive cataracts have become refractive cataracts, like high-end multifocal lenses. The increase in applications such as femtosecond cataract surgery has ensured the constant growth of the project.
According to Ai Fen, after Aier’s eye exam, the doctor said that his right eye suffered from cataracts and suggested that it should be replaced with a high-grade intraocular lens.
According to the annual report data, the gross profit margin for Aier’s cataract ophthalmic surgery project was 40.10% in 2019 and 37.69% in 2018. The high-end transformation has obviously achieved results.
“Aier Ophthalmology’s cataract business has morphed into high-end surgery, and its growth has been relatively good in 2019. For commercial organizations, this is a relatively correct decision. However, this is also a point that is currently being questioned by public opinion. You are in this process of transformation. Is there a question of ignoring the interests of patients for the sake of commercial interests? This is a relatively large hat for private hospitals. This will be clearer until the survey results are released, but it will have an impact on market sentiment, “the private equity source said.
Will the logic of 300 billion white horses change?
As a well-known white horse of A shares, Aier Ophthalmology is a group share of many institutions. The share price has more than doubled this year, with a total market value of more than 300 billion and a price-earnings ratio of 149.7 times.
Despite the impact of the epidemic, Aier Ophthalmology’s third quarterly report showed that the net profit was 1,546 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. In recent years, its growth rate of return has remained at around 30%.
The third quarterly report shows that a total of 208 institutions own shares of Aier Ophthalmology, representing 56.26% of its outstanding shares.
“Aier Ophthalmology is said to be Moutai in ophthalmology. Although there are doubts about its goodwill during its development. However, from the perspective of the development and performance of the company, it is relatively stable, and like Moutai, there is a group of staunch fans. “He actually made a lot of money from it,” one investor who has a long-term stake in Aier Ophthalmology told reporters. “This event will definitely cause the share price to fluctuate. As for how much it falls, it depends on the market game. “
In the stock market, there are investors who buy sauces and cut meat.Some investors believe it is necessary to avoid short-term risks and will cut meat on Monday. However, some investors said that if the limit drops, they will definitely buy funds.
Institutions also have differences in this.
“There will be short-term effects, but I do not believe that this incident will have a subversive impact on the growth logic of the company. Aier Ophthalmology has developed a more mature experience in handling such incidents, unless the business development policy of the country has fundamental changes, otherwise, I think it will not have a big impact. As for whether to buy the fund, it depends on market sentiment. As a setup, I think there is no problem, “said a Shenzhen private equity source.
And in the poll of December 29 of last year,Responding to the question “How to control medical accidents, Aier Ophthalmology” said: “The quality of medical care is the lifeblood of Aier and the trust of patients and their families. The medical quality of the company has always been well controlled. . The standards are higher than national standards and are implemented in place, so the accident rate and dispute rate are extremely low, the risk control system is constantly improving, the company has also ensured insurance of medical responsibility and there should be a fundamental thought at all times. It is not a medical accident. The dispute is caused by communication problems or quality of service. It may be okay if you have a better attitude, so the service is endless. “
However, the aforementioned private equity sources in southern China said. “This issue involves celebrities, and the social effect is still quite large. The question now is how the investigation of the incident turns out, how far will it ferment, whether it will lead to commercial rectification and punishment of hospitals.If the cataract business is severely affected, it will have a greater impact on the performance of the company and the valuation logic must be rethought. So before the outcome of the matter comes to light, I think the negotiation should be cautious. ”
(Author: Pang Huawei Editor: Wu Yanling)
