News Analysis: What’s New in the Recent Outbreak of 20 Million Confirmed New Corona cases in the United States?

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, January 1 News Analysis: What’s New in the Recent Outbreak of 20 Million Confirmed New Corona cases in the United States?

Xinhua News Agency reporter Tan Jingjing Yang Shilong

On the first day of 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States exceeded 20 million and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 347,000.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States surpassed 10 million on November 9, 2020. It took less than a month from 10 million to over 15 million on December 8, and it only took 24 days to go from 15 million to more than 20 million. The growth rate reached a new record.

Recently, core indicators such as confirmed cases, deaths, and hospitalizations of the new crown in the United States have continued to rise; at the same time, three states have confirmed the detection of reported cases of the new mutant corona virus in the UK. Several licensed US epidemiologists said in an interview with the Xinhua News Agency that the current situation in the United States is worrying. There may be a large increase in confirmed cases and deaths after the Christmas and New Year holidays. It is expected to wait until the middle of this year. Only when a relatively large proportion of people complete the new vaccination crown will the epidemic improve significantly.

　　Three factors in the recent “surge”

According to data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention On December 31, 2020, on the 30th, the United States reported more than 230,000 new confirmed cases of new crowns and more than 3,700 new deaths, which is another record since mid-December. . According to the latest data from the National Epidemic Tracking Project initiated by Atlantic Monthly, as of December 31, 2020, there are more than 125,000 patients hospitalized with new crowns in the United States, a record since the outbreak. Today, medical systems in many parts of the United States are under tremendous pressure and the ability to receive a diagnosis is almost at the limit.

Zhang Zuofeng, Vice Dean of the School of Public Health and Distinguished Professor of Epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that there are three main reasons for the recent “surge of surge”: First, the increase in gatherings between family and friends during the holidays has increased. The spread of the virus; the second is the relaxation of people’s thinking and the “fatigue” of the epidemic, which increases the risk of infection; the third is that the US has reported cases of new mutated coronavirus infection in the UK. This mutated virus is more infectious and there may already be some range of community transmission.

Following the discovery of the first case of the United States infected with the new mutated coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom on December 29, 2020 in Colorado, the United States, California and Florida have successively discovered cases of infection by the new mutated coronavirus. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that this new mutated coronavirus may have appeared in several states.

Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in the United States, told Xinhua News Agency that the new mutated coronavirus is more contagious and may cause more infections, and more will follow. Of deaths.

　　After the holidays, there may be a more violent “surge”

Although the recent average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States in a single day is around 180,000, and the average number of new deaths in a single day is around 2,200, which is already a high level, experts they believe that the “real face” of the epidemic is even more serious. Zhang Zuofeng said that during the Christmas and New Year holidays, the reporting system in various places is not robust and there may be a backlog of data. After the holidays, you may see a large increase in the incidence of new crowns and mortality.

Faced with the risk that the transmission of the epidemic will intensify during the Christmas season in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States recently issued recommendations asking people to postpone their travel plans, stay home as much as possible, hold virtual meetings with family and friends who are not together, and give each other virtual gifts; Emphasizing Travel Will Increase At the risk of contracting and spreading the new coronavirus, staying home during the holidays is the best way to protect yourself and others. However, there are still a large number of people who travel on vacation.

Fauci said the current American epidemic is beginning to get “out of control” in all respects. Large numbers of people travel during the Christmas season, which is likely to lead to an increase in the “surge” of existing cases, which is concerning. He believes that the outbreak in January of this year may be worse than in December of last year.

According to data released by the National Epidemic Tracking Project on December 31, 2020, there were 76,580 new deaths from the new crown in the United States in December, establishing the highest number of new deaths in a single month since the outbreak. The latest forecast data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that by January 23, 2021, the cumulative number of deaths from the new crown in the United States may reach 383,000 to 424,000. .

　　The vaccination schedule is behind expectations

The US Food and Drug Administration approved two emergency-use applications for new corona vaccines in December last year: one was jointly developed by Pfizer and the German biotech company, and the other was developed by Modena. Today, these two vaccines have been distributed throughout the United States, with priority given to medical personnel and people living in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

The person in charge of the new US crown drug and vaccine research plan “Action Warp Speed” previously stated that the United States plans to complete the vaccination of 20 million people by the end of December 2020. However, the data Vaccines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website show that as of December 30, the number of people receiving the first dose of the vaccine in the United States is approximately 2.794 million . Some experts and government officials criticized the US vaccination schedule for falling far short of expectations.

Perlman said the current delay in vaccination in the United States is due in part to various problems in the production and distribution links, and the high requirements for cold chain transportation of vaccines.

Zhang Zuofeng said that in the initial stage of the US vaccine plan, the link between all the links has not been fully formed, so progress is behind the plan and the speed is expected to gradually increase in the later stage. If by June, between 50% and 60% of the American population has completed vaccination, American social life is expected to gradually return to normal.