Expert: Proactive fiscal policy stimulates economic growth this year by 1.57 percentage points

Original title: Experts: Proactive Fiscal Policy Boosts Economic Growth This Year by 1.57 Percentage Points

“Based on my personal modeling research, this year’s scalefinancialThe policy stimulus will boost economic growth this year by about 1.57 percentage points, and its lag effect will also boost economic growth by 1.88 percentage points in 2021 and about 0.39 percentage points in 2022. “

In the recent “Local financeEconomic operation “InvestigationAt the results publication seminar, said Xu Sheng, chief financial and tax expert of the Institute of Economics of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute.

In response to the epidemic, the economysocietyUnprecedented impact, this year China has introduced an unprecedented large-scale fiscal policy, including 2.5 trillion yuan.Tax reductionRate reduction policy; expand the general public budget deficit to 3.76 trillion yuan, issue a special anti-epidemic of 1 trillion yuanNational debtAnd 3.75 billion yuan in new special projects for local governments.LinkTo increase the governmentinvestmentStrengthen to protect people’s livelihoods.In addition, the newly addedInvest inThe funds and surplus funds carried forward guarantee the balance of budgetary income and expenses.

Xu Sheng said that this year China introduced a total of 12 trillion yuanProactive fiscal policy, Estimated to take into accountGDP(GDP) The proportion is approximately 11.6%. Compared with last year, an increase of 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 6.8% of GDP.

He believes that fiscal policy hasTime delayThe effect and dynamic cumulative effect will not only promote economic growth in the current year, but also promote economic growth in the future. Therefore, the strength of proactive fiscal policy next year must also consider the lagged effect of this year’s large-scale fiscal policy in the next year.

In the first three quarters of this year, China’s economic growth went from negative to positive for the first time (0.7%). Institutions generally expect China’s economic growth for the full year of this year to be around 2%. It is the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive growth, and large-scale fiscal policies support the economic effect. .

“Overall, the large-scale fiscal stimulus policy of about 12 trillion yuan will boost economic growth by 4.3 percentage points in a few years, which exceeds expectations,” Xu Sheng said.

Recent central economyjobsmeetingApply next yearmacropoliticalMaintain continuity, stability, and sustainability, including a proactive fiscal policy should improve quality and efficiency, be more sustainable, maintain moderate spending intensity, and strengthenstrategytaskfinancial resourcesTo ensure that by promoting technological innovation, accelerating economic restructuring, and adjusting income distribution, we must take the initiative to address hidden debt risks for local governments. Parties and government agencies must persist in living a difficult life.

Xu Sheng believes that fiscal policy will not take a sharp turn in 2021 and that stimulus should remain subdued. In 2021, proactive fiscal policy should return to normalization and intensity should be adequate. Since fiscal expenditures must be maintained to a certain degree, it is recommended that growth in fiscal expenditures be maintained at around 8%. 2021IncomeThe growth rate will accelerate due to economic growth, and the income scale is expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan. Therefore, the fiscal deficit rate can be controlled at around 3%.

Xu Sheng told China Business News that because some projects supported with funds raised on behalf of the special national debt for fighting the epidemic require follow-up financial support, the projects have continuity and cannot be drastically reversed. Properly preserve the anti-epidemic special in 2021Issuance of national debt, The size of the problem can be reduced.In addition, the scale of local government special bonds in 2021 can maintain the average level of recent years.Increase。

It considers that after coordinating the policies to be launched in 2021 and the lag effect of the policies in 2020, the comprehensive stimulus effect of proactive fiscal policy on the economy will reach close to 3 percentage points.

(Article source: China Business News)

(Responsible editor: DF381)