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Xinhua News Agency, London, December 25(International observation) Ditching the ‘no-deal Brexit’ haze, Britain faces multiple challenges
Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Dailei and Sun Xiaoling
The United Kingdom and the European Union announced on the 24th that they had concluded negotiations on the future relationship between the two parties and reached an agreement on a number of cooperation details, including trade. This means that the ‘no-deal Brexit’ haze that has engulfed the UK for many years since the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum finally dispersed.
Analysts believe that with the conclusion of the deal, the suspense about how the “Brexit” transition period will end has finally been answered. However, the agreed ‘Brexit’ continues to pose serious challenges to UK politics and the economy. How the UK realizes the grand vision of “globalizing the UK” has attracted a lot of attention.
Scotland wants to get out of Britain
The president of the European Commission, Von der Lein, described the agreement as a “fair and balanced agreement”. British Prime Minister Johnson said Britain has regained control of its own destiny and believes that this deal will benefit Europe as a whole. Germany, France and other countries also welcomed the agreement.
Analysts noted that some of the content of the “Brexit” deal has caused discontent in the UK, especially Scotland, and may to some extent intensify the region’s independence.
UK Scottish Government Chief Minister Sturgeon said following the announcement of the UK-Europe deal that there is no deal to offset the losses caused by British ‘Brexit’ to Scotland: “It is time to plan for our future as a country. independent European “.
Sturgeon accused the British government of making concessions on the fisheries issue in violation of its original “significant commitment” to Scottish fisheries. She said: “This is a disastrous ‘Brexit’ outcome for the Scottish people … Like the UK ‘Brexit’ itself, it was imposed against our will.”
Analysts said Scotland has a close economic relationship with the European Union, with a majority of Scottish voters supporting “staying in Europe” in the 2016 “Brexit” referendum. In agriculture and fisheries, Scotland is quite dissatisfied with the content. relevant to the Anglo-European Agreement. Due to complicated historical and economic reasons, Scotland has long sought to “get out of the UK”. This arrangement may further enhance Scottish independence.
Economic shock
Under the agreement, starting in 2021, UK-Europe commodity trade will continue to enjoy tariff- and quota-free treatment. Analysts believe that the agreement prevents large-scale increases in trade costs between the two parties, which is undoubtedly a huge benefit to Britain and Europe that have been hit by the epidemic. Trade fluidity between Great Britain and Europe is comparable to that of Great Britain remaining in the EU single market. The proportion is still not the same.
According to the UK Government’s Office of Budget Responsibility, it was previously estimated that with a deal reached, the UK economy would contract by 4% compared to staying in the EU 15 years from now.
Some analysts noted that the UK is currently the world’s largest net exporter of financial services, with more than 40% of its exports going to the European Union. The deal involves very little financial services, which is one of the UK’s mainstay industries, and this can have a major impact on the UK financial industry. Shock.
Rajneesh Narula, an international trade relations expert at the University of Reading in the UK, told Xinhua news agency that almost all negotiations between the UK and Europe are related to trade in goods and that the financial services industry it has fallen far behind. In the next step, the UK must negotiate with the EU on all matters related to financial services, including banking, finance, insurance and telecommunications.
Public opinion generally believes that the British financial services industry will have to wait at least a few months before learning how the EU member states decide the degree of British access. This decision is now more in the hands of the EU, and the EU is unlikely to allow the UK to continue to enjoy the benefits of the European single market without taking on obligations.
“Global Britain” is not easy
Analysts believe “Brexit” is the product of Britain’s attempts to adjust its foreign relations. After the completion of “Brexit”, how the UK maintains political stability, economic prosperity and international influence and then fulfills the vision of a “globalized Britain” will face many challenges.
For a period of time in the future, bilateral trade negotiations will be one of the priorities for the implementation of international strategies after the UK and the EU reach an agreement on the future relationship between the two parties.
The UK is also currently negotiating post-Brexit trade deals with major trading partners like the US, Australia and New Zealand, but progress is slow.
In October this year, the UK and Japan formally signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which is the first major trade agreement signed by the UK after Brexit. However, the volume of trade between Great Britain and Japan only accounts for 2% of Great Britain’s foreign trade. The symbolic importance of this agreement far outweighs the actual benefits.
In November this year, the UK and Canada reached a continuation trade agreement to ensure that the trade relationship between the two countries remains stable after the British “Brexit” transition period ends. The two countries also agreed to start negotiations on a new trade deal starting next year.
