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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 19Topic: Understanding the Topicality of Macroeconomic Policies, Building a New Pattern of Development, and Seeing the New Atmosphere: Han Wenxiu’s Interpretation of Policy Highlights from the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference
Xinhua News Agency reporters Dai Xiaohe and An Bei
Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance and Economic Committee Office in charge of daily work, said on the 19th that the current epidemic prevention and control in China is normalizing and economic operations are normalizing. Macroeconomic policy for the coming year must maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, understand timeliness and avoid sharp turns to avoid the appearance of a “political cliff”.
Han Wenxiu explained the policy highlights of the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference at the “Annual China Economic Conference 2020-2021” hosted by the China International Economic Exchange Center on that day.
Han Wenxiu said that in 2021, the domestic and international economic situation will face further changes, and the world economy is expected to show restorative growth, but the recovery is unstable and uneven. The foundation for China’s economic recovery is not yet solid, and the task of doing a good job of “six stability” and “six guarantees” and preventing and resolving risks remains arduous.
He said that next year’s macroeconomic policies should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, and that macroeconomic policies should gradually return to normal when the economy resumes normal operation. This can be understood and captured by combining three antecedents.
The first is the macroeconomic operating situation. Since the base number has fallen sharply this year, the economic growth rate next year may be higher in terms of numbers, mainly a digital phenomenon caused by the base effect. The International Monetary Fund predicts that China’s economy will grow by 8.2% next year, the World Bank predicts growth of 7.9%, and the OECD predicts growth of 8%. Judging by the average for this year and next, China’s economic growth rate is expected to be around 5%. It may not be easy for the numbers to look good, and economic development still faces more internal and external uncertainties.
The second is the current situation of the micro subjects. The macro data for next year may look better, but the micro level may not be as attractive. Many small and medium-sized businesses have experienced the impact of the epidemic. It can be said that they have recovered from a serious illness and need continued political support to regain their vitality. Some companies are also concerned that the withdrawal from the policy is too quick to bear.
The third is room for future policies. After the implementation of the social security payment policy this year, the pressure on the income and expenses of the social security fund has also increased significantly. Now the basic pension insurance fund of most provinces has a current income and expenditure gap. At the same time, financial support to the real economy has taken some important steps this year and the macro leverage ratio has increased by more than 20 percentage points. These measures are necessary, but sustainability must be considered.
Han Wenxiu said that in the aforementioned context, macroeconomic policies must understand timeliness.
-Maintaining the continuity and stability of the policy means continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintaining the necessary policy support for economic recovery, avoiding a sharp turn and preventing the appearance of a “policy cliff.”
—— Maintaining the sustainability of policies means taking into account the gradual return to normal functioning of the economy and the need to withdraw from some temporary relief policies. This is the inner part of improving cross-cycle design and macroeconomic control adjustment, achieve stable growth and prevent long-term risk balance Claim.
—— Pay more attention to the scientific, precise and effective implementation of macroeconomic policies, that is, those that must advance must advance, those that must regress and those that must be stable must stabilize. The coordination, articulation and balance of the various policies must be coordinated, articulated and balanced. Addictive effect. Next year, we must comprehensively consider changes in indicators such as macro and micro, inter-annual and quarterly, quarterly and throughout the year, national and international, and make flexible decisions based on real conditions, leaving policy reserves and reverse. .
“It should be noted that due to technological effects, next year’s economic growth rate may be high and low, and the slope will be relatively steep.” Han Wenxiu stressed that, based on the situation this year and next, this level of growth is consistent with China’s potential growth capacity at this stage. More or less equivalent.
“The pressure to stabilize growth next year will not be as great as in previous years. This will create an unusual time window. We should use this time window to deepen supply-side structural reforms and focus on promoting reform. and innovation to lay a good foundation for high-quality economic development. “Han Wenxiu said.
The Central Economic Work Conference called for a good first step in building a new development pattern next year and seeing the new perspective. Han Wenxiu said that next year’s economic work will focus on building a new pattern of development.
“Building a new pattern of development requires not only strategically establishing a good situation, but also a good strategy in key areas.” Han Wenxiu said that on the basis of comprehensive deployment, the Central Economic Work Conference focused on taking key steps to take small steps to expand and seize the points. At some key points, the spin is effective and has the effect of pulling the whole body.
The Central Conference on Economic Work clarified eight key tasks to be done next year. Han Wenxiu emphasized that next year’s work on all aspects of economic and social development should be fully implemented, implemented, detailed and advanced in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference.
