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The rapid growth of industrial production and the overlapping of low temperatures and cold currents have led to a rapid growth in demand for energy higher than expected, which is the main reason for the announcement of the “orderly use of energy” in many places. In general, there are currently no “changes and restrictions” caused by large-scale power shortages in China, and the “orderly use of electricity” is a routine measure to deal with special short-term power spikes. term. However, the structural contradictions in energy consumption reflected in this round of “orderly use of electricity” cannot be ignored.
Recently, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places have successively issued “Orderly Use of Electricity” advisories, which have a certain impact on the electricity production and consumption of some businesses and residents, and has even been interpreted as a recurrence from the “switching power outage” not seen in many years. Why did the “power outage” occur? How to ensure the security of energy supply?
Energy demand growth exceeds expectations
On December 14, news from the official website of the Changsha City Development and Reform Commission, Hunan Province, showed that the Hunan Province Development and Reform Commission required the province to begin taking measures of electricity rationing as of December 8. The “Emergency Notice on the Beginning of Orderly Power Consumption in the Province During the Peak of Winter in 2020” issued by the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission shows that the maximum load of Hunan Province has reached 30, 93 million kilowatts, beating the all-time winter record, and the maximum daily power consumption is 606 million kilowatts. At the time, it was up 14.1% year-on-year and there was a huge gap in power supply. To ensure the stable operation of the power grid and the reliable supply of electricity, priority will be given to guaranteeing the electricity consumption of residents, key public facilities and key enterprises, and properly restricting the electricity consumption of administrative units and landscapes .
On the same day, affected by the cold snap, the Jiangxi power grid coordinated the power load and dispatched power generation and power reception to a record level. The Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission decided that from December 15, interruptible charging will be implemented in the morning and afternoon rush hours, and orderly power use will begin.
Recently, Zhejiang Province has also successively introduced “energy restriction” measures. The Zhejiang Provincial Administration of Government Affairs issued a notice a few days ago that from now until December 31, the office areas of the relevant provincial units can only turn on the air conditioning and other heating equipment when the temperature is below 3 degrees Celsius, and the set temperature will not exceed 16 degrees Celsius.
In the early stage of development of China’s electric power industry, the power supply was insufficient and the power supply was not smooth. “Flip the switch and limit the power” became a special historical memory of a generation. In recent years, with the advancement of the development of the power industry, China has sufficient energy reserves, and there was even an excess of coal capacity. Why did the new round of “power outages” start?
The main reason for this round of “power limit activation” was the sudden drop in temperature and the arrival of maximum heating energy consumption, which caused a sudden increase in energy consumption. Wu Donglin, a spokesman for Changsha Power Supply Company, analyzed that the winter in Hunan province is one month earlier than in previous years and that the power supply situation is more severe due to the reduction in coal burning, the decrease from reservoir water levels, the inability of wind power to generate electricity effectively due to freezing and reduced external power.
It is worth noting that the main reason for Zhejiang Province’s “energy restriction” measures is not energy shortages, but energy conservation and emission reduction. A person in charge of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company told reporters that the current overall balance of power supply and demand in Zhejiang, and there is no such thing as “cutting the brakes.” The “orderly use of electricity” is mainly due to “dual control” and “dual power control” in Zhejiang province. The dire situation and demands of green development facing carbon reduction work.
In fact, the China Electricity Council had previously predicted that in the fourth quarter, power supply and demand in some provinces of central China and the southern region will be in short supply, mainly due to poor power supply during peak hours in Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangxi, which may require an orderly use of electricity. Measurements. According to the forecast of the relevant departments, a wide range of extremely low weather conditions are likely to occur this winter, causing the demand for power supply and heating to increase significantly. At the same time, the second wave of foreign epidemics has led to an increase in foreign trade demand in some industries in China, which will further boost China’s manufacturing production and increase consumption Electricity demand, so the Power industry must do a good job ahead of time to ensure power supply during peak winter.
In this sense, the National Development and Reform Commission responded on the 17th that the rapid growth of industrial production and the superposition of low temperatures and cold currents have led to a rapid growth in energy demand above expectations. So far, the power supply has been stable and orderly, and the residents’ electricity consumption has not been affected. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and companies, has taken steps to effectively guarantee energy demand and ensure that energy supply is generally stable and orderly.
The response to demand must be flexible
In general, there are currently no “changes and restrictions” caused by the large-scale power shortage in China, and the “orderly use of electricity” is a routine measure to deal with special short-term power spikes. term. However, the structural contradictions in the use of electricity reflected in this round of “orderly consumption of electricity” cannot be ignored.
Implementing an orderly power plan is not unique to this winter. Affected by the continuous sharp drop in temperature, rain and snow, Hunan and Jiangxi issued advisories for orderly electricity consumption in January 2018. According to industry experts, the special weather will bring an extremely high and unstable power load, and provinces with only one power source are prone to short-term power shortages. Considering the state of excess installed thermal power capacity and economic efficiency in China, this kind of unsustainable load is not worth building too many generator sets. In the future, for areas where the contradiction between energy supply and demand is prominent, increasing the stability of external energy transmission may be considered.
During the “Thirteenth Five Year Plan” period, China’s energy demand grew rapidly and installed power capacity continued to expand. However, the energy structural contradiction of “surplus coal energy and shortage of maximum energy” has not been effectively resolved. The phenomenon of “electricity shortage” has affected the security of electricity supply in our country.
Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, said the key to solving the peak load gap is not to continue expanding the scale of coal-fired power facilities, but to optimize the structure of power supply from the overall perspective of the power system and solve the power gap at the root.
“Although the reasons for the power cut in various provinces are not the same, they all reflect that some energy departments have yet to improve the forecast level of the peak-valley difference in power consumption.” Zeng Ming, a professor at the North China Electric Power University and director of the Internet Energy Research Center, believes that in this regard It is because of insufficient consideration of some structural factors that affect electricity demand; On the other hand, because China has vigorously promoted the reform of the electricity market in recent years, the progress of each province is different. “In the energy market reform process, it is necessary to fully consider the coincidence of real energy demand and the correlation between various energy sources. Otherwise, the contradiction between supply and demand will be repeated.”
In this regard, Zeng Ming suggested that because the current lack of energy is mainly focused on maximum energy consumption, future policy-making and technology research and development, the flexibility of the response should be fully considered. on the side of energy demand.
In the long term, as China sets the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, renewable energy with higher volatility will be developed on a larger scale, unique to meeting electricity demand, and providing a safer place for the grid. Smooth operation brings some pressure. Zeng Ming said that we must develop energy sources in accordance with the requirements of an integrated energy system to ensure that renewable energy sources are organically integrated with traditional energy sources. (Reporter Wang Yichen of Economic Daily-China Economic Net)Return to Sohu to see more
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