In November, the international transport of cargo and mail of the national civil aviation achieved positive monthly growth of 1.9% for the first time, and the recovery of the capacity of some airlines slowed down

Original title: In November, international cargo and mail transport for civil aviation achieved positive monthly growth of 1.9% for the first time. The recovery of capacity of some airlines slowed

Civil Aviation Resource Network News on December 16, 2020: According to a recent announcement from the Civil Aviation Administration, in November, all civil aviation completedtransportTotal billing was 8,280 million ton-kilometers, which was restored to 77.3% in the same period last year; the completed passenger transport volume was 44.412 million, which was restored to 83.7% from the same period last year.

Graph: passenger traffic from January to November 2020 for selected airlines and civil aviationStatisticsTable Mapping: Civil Aviation Resource Network

In November, civil aviation completed 675,000 tons of cargo and mail transportation.Year with yearWith a decline of 3.5%, the rate of decline decreased by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, among them, freight and mail transport on international routes increased by 1.9% year-on-year, achieving monthly growth positive for the first time this year. In November, all-cargo aircraft completed 255,000 tonnes of cargo and mail transport, an increase of 21.2% over the same period last year.RenewalMaintain a high growth rate.

Regarding the positive monthly growth of freight and mail transport on international routes this year, civil aviation expert Qi Qi analyzed that thedemandIt is still strong, and at the same time, November is also the traditional Western Christmas freight season and before the New Year, high-value agingproductChoose more stable air freight High-end internationalsupply chainStart to change to maintain air cargo Freight aircraft transport has become the main international air cargo capacitysupplychannel.

Graph: Volume of air and postal transport from January to November 2020 of some airlines and civil aviationStatistics tableCartography: Civil Aviation Resource Network

　　Also, in November, some listed airlines released “November Airline Operating Dataad“. Of the operational performance of several airlines:

(1) From the perspective of passenger traffic, in November, the passenger traffic of China Southern Airlines, Air China, Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines was 1067.3, 755.42, 774.53, 175, 54 and 1.6336 million passengers, respectively, a decrease of 10.2% and 10.7 compared to October. %, 15.5%, 16.7%, 14.7%, 11.8%.

(2) From an overall passenger load factor perspective, the domestic passenger load factors of the three major airlines decreased in November. Compared to October, the domestic passenger load factors of the top three airlines were all above 75%. In November, the domestic passenger load factors of Air China, China Southern Airlines and Eastern Airlines were respectively Decreased to 73.4%, 74.7% and 71.91%. The domestic passenger load factor of the spring and autumn period and Jixiang decreased from more than 85% in October to 80.69% and 79.97% respectively. From a passenger load factor performance perspective, Spring Airlines continues to lead the way. The domestic passenger load factors accumulated in November and January to November are above 80%, 80.69% and 80.52% respectively. From the perspective of the international passenger load factor, airlines were not yet high in November, with onlyAirlines Spring AutumnThe passenger load factor is close to 60%.

(3) Basically the demand for domestic routes has recovered and the absolute value of the growth of international capacity of international airlines is still at a low level. In November, the domestic ASK of China Southern Airlines, Air China, Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines increased 8.48%, 8.5%, 0.27%, 53.75% and 12.11% year-on-year, respectively. The national RPK of each airline increased by -2.35% and -1.6% year-on-year. , -12.62%, 35.86%, 4.9%. Since the epidemic situation abroad is still not optimistic, both the international ASK and the international RPK have decreased by more than 90% year-on-year.

According to third party civil aviationServiceEvaluation of the “Passenger Desires Index (TWI) November 2020” published by CAPSEreportShows that, in general, the TWI of tourists in NovemberChain relationshipA 10% decline and the year-on-year decline has expanded. Compared to passenger willingness in November and capacity in October, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Xi’an, Kunming and Hangzhou have slightly more redundant capacity. In comparison, Sanya has a bit more capacity. There are shortcomings, considering that most of the routes are in a state of oversupply, the industry needs to organize the capacity in a reasonable way.

In this regard, Qi Qi believes that there will be a holiday in October, and the demand suppressed by the epidemic will be released in October, and it is reasonable that travel will decrease in November. International, domestic flights will not resumemarketContinuous overcapacity, averagepriceAnd attendance is still low. In November, the domestic epidemic occurred sporadically in several places, causing the reduction of scheduled flights by airlines, and a large number of passengers who bought tickets refunded one of the reasons.

Image: Selected airlines in November 2020the companyPassenger Operations Performance Mapping: Civil Aviation Resource Network

(Source: Civil Aviation Resource Network)

(Responsible editor: DF064)