In November, the national economy continued to recover and the endogenous drive for consumption was strong.

Original title: In November, the national economy continued to recover and the endogenous power of consumption was strong

On December 15, at a press conference held by the Information Office of the Council of State,National Statistical OfficeSpokesperson Fu Linghui introduced Novembernational economyOperating data. Fu Linghui said that in November, the national economy continued to recover, production and demand continued to increase, employment and prices remained generally stable, the vitality of market development increased, and the protection of basic livelihoods of the people was solid. Either in terms of demand or investment, endogenous growth continues to improve. Economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared to the third quarter, and it is worth expecting the economy to maintain a good level of growth throughout the year.

It should be noted that from January to November, private investmentYear with yearWith an increase of 0.2%, the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year. Fu Linghui said that this shows that the power of the market is increasing. Further,manufacturingSMEsThe non-manufacturing business activity index reached a new record this year, indicating that the steady recovery in economic operations has been consolidated and improved.

　　Several economic indicators have turned positive and the annual employment target has been exceeded ahead of schedule

The data shows that the national economy continued to recover in November, the implementation of the “six stability” and “six guarantees” tasks achieved new results, and many indicators turned positive or showed significant improvement. Among them, from January to October, industrial enterprises above the designated sizecompanyachieveprofitThe total amount was 5012.4 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive for the first time this year.

From January to October, service companies above the designated sizeOperating incomeWith a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, the growth rate went from negative to positive for the first time this year, including information transmission, software andinformation technologyService industry operating income increased 13%.

January to November, thirdindustryInvestment grew 3.5%, 0.5 percentage points faster than that from January to October. Private investment increased 0.2% and the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

From January to November, 10.99 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing 122.1% of the annual goal.

Fu Linghui said that in the face of the unprecedented impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy has shown strong resilience. However, we must also realize that since the beginning of autumn and winter, the external epidemic has picked up again and there are still more unstable and uncertain factors. We must work harder to consolidate the foundations of economic stability and sustainable development.

　　Consolidation of recovery in demand and gradual shift to driven mainly by improved consumption

In November,Total retail sales of social consumer goods3.951.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points from October, a month-on-month increase of 1.31% .Consumption updateProductSales are growing rapidly. In November, gold and silver communications equipment, cosmetics, and jewelry products increased 43.6%, 32.3% and 24.8% year-on-year, respectively.

“Based on the above data, the recovery in demand is consolidating and endogenous growth continues to increase. Driven consumption has gradually recovered from initial support of life staple growth to primarily driven by improved consumption,” Fu Linghui said. Consumption remains an important engine supporting the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy.

He pointed out that from the next stage, there are still many favorable conditions for a sustained and sustained growth in consumption. As the economy recovers, employment expands, helping to increase residents’ incomes, while at the same time, business efficiency is improving. In the first 10 months, industrial enterprises above the designated sizeBusiness benefitsThe year after year has turned positive and the monthly growth rate reached double digits. In addition, some policies have recently been introduced to promote the growth of consumption, such as the promotion of a new round of cars that go to the countryside and the replacement of old appliances with new ones, based on these factors, they are based and condition a sustained recovery Of consumption.

“Establishing an economic model based on the internal cycle is actually inseparable from expanding domestic demand and playing the fundamental role of consumption,” Fu Linghui said, only to stopsupplyStructural reforms on the demand side and reforms on the demand side are promoted at the same time. Only by opening up production, distribution, circulation and consumption, a higher level of supply and supply driven by demand can create demanddynamic balance, It is conducive to the formation of a new pattern of development and promoting sustained and healthy economic development.

　　By enhancing the vitality of the market investment, smart manufacturing has enormous investment potential

In terms of investment, the vitality of market investment has increased, which is mainly evident in November that private investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and for the first time this year it went from negative to positive. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index reached new highs for the year.

“As the economy is affected by the epidemic, the central government has issued a series of macroeconomic policies that have played an important role in stabilizing the economy. At present, economic operations have gradually shifted from boosted growth from policies to endogenous market growth and cumulative growth in private investment. Going from negative to positive actually reflects this characteristic, “said Fu Linghui.

It is worth noting that in terms of investment, from January to November, investment in manufacturing was still in the range of decline, with a fall of 3.5% year-on-year. Can investment in manufacturing improve? Fu Linghui said the drop in manufacturing investment narrowed by 1.8 percentage points from January to October. With the gradual recovery of the economy and the gradual recovery of market demand, the recovery in manufacturing is expected to continue.

“With the improvement and development of China’s industry, the investment potential of the manufacturing industry is huge, especially in information technology, big data,artificial intelligenceIntegration with the manufacturing industry has never had a broad perspective. “

Overall, Fu Linghui said that both production and demand are recovering steadily, and economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared to the third quarter. “As the economy gradually returns to normal, I think it is worth hoping to maintain a good level of growth throughout the year.”

　　We expect the economic situation next year to gradually return to potential growth levels.

What is the economic growth rate in 2021? At the press conference, Fu Linghui also made authoritative predictions.

Looking to the economy next year, Fu Linghui said that there are many factors favorable to the economic operation next year, and the economy is more likely to gradually return to potential growth levels. Also, due to the low base this year, from a speed perspective, growth may be faster, but that does not mean that the economy has undergone significant changes.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, believes that due to the slowdown in economic growth due to the epidemic, the base number is low.GDPThe growth rate will be significantly higher than the level before the epidemic. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of next year is expected to reach 11.4% and slow to around 5.4% in the fourth quarter. The real GDP growth rate for the full year of next year is expected to reach 8.1%.

For next year’s macro control policies,Guotai JunanThe report believes that the budget deficit next year is expected to return to the 3% -3.5% range from 3.6% or more.National debt. Furthermore, the new special debt limit has been lowered from 3.75 trillion yuan to around 3.5 trillion yuan. Although the general policy of marginal withdrawal, the general financial support is still strong.coinThe policy is still fixed and stable, in the specific implementation process it will remain moderately flexible and will present the characteristics of “price stability and quantity control”.

　　CPIDown 0.5% YoY, Is Deflation Looming?

　　The underlying CPI remains stable

　　New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival are coming, how does the price of meat change?

　　PorkpriceNot going up

In November, the national CPI for consumer prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the first year-on-year drop since October 2009. Does this mean that the national economy is at risk of deflation? In response, Fu Linghui replied at the State Council Information Office press conference on the 15th that after deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI remains stable, which also means that prices in the consumer sector have not changed much in nature.

Fu Linghui pointed out that the year-on-year drop in the CPI in November this year was mainly due to the year-on-year drop in food prices. Among them, the price of pork fell by 12.5%, which affected the fall in the CPI by approximately 0.60%.

“The price of pork has come down due to the recovery of live pig production and increased production capacity, and the high base in the same period last year.” Fu Linghui said that since the fourth quarter, New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival are approaching and the seasonal demand for pork is increasing. increase. “But with the recovery of production capacity, the conditions and the basis for a sharp increase in pork prices are not available, and there are supports and conditions for pork prices to remain stable.” .

Fu Linghui pointed out that the core CPI excluding food and energy prices remained stable, rising 0.5% year-on-year, the same rate of increase for 5 consecutive months. And from a service price perspective, service prices in November increased by 0.3% year-on-year. All these data reflect that China’s price stability situation has not changed much.

What will the next CPI look like? Fu Linghui said that the stable operation of the CPI has favorable conditions in terms of investment demand or consumer demand. “I believe that with the continued recovery of the economy, the increases in consumer prices will return to a reasonable level.”

(Source: Jinyang.com)

(Responsible editor: DF524)