The three main needs continue to rebound and the economy may be more dynamic |

Original title: The top three lawsuits keep rebounding

Summary

[Las tres demandas principales continúan repuntando y la economía puede volverse más dinámica]According to data released by the National Statistics Office on the 15th, the national economy continued to show signs of recovery in November and the three main demands continued to rebound. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared to the third quarter. The economic operation has gradually shifted from policy-driven growth to endogenous market growth. There are many factors favorable to the economic operation next year, and the economic growth rate is more likely to gradually return to the potential level. (China Securities Journal)

　　National Statistical OfficeThe data published on the 15th showed that in Novembernational economyThe recovery trend continues to show itself and the three main demands continue to increase. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared to the third quarter. The economic operation has gradually shifted from policy-driven growth to endogenous market growth. There are many factors favorable to the economic operation next year, and the economic growth rate is more likely to gradually return to the potential level.

　　The growth rate of private investment turned positive

The data shows that private investment from January to NovemberYear with yearWith an increase of 0.2%, the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

Li Qilin, director of the China Chief Economists Forum, believes that the main reason for the positive cumulative growth of private investment is the recovery in orders. “If there is no order, much of the existing capacity will be idle.companyThere is no incentive to expand investment. “Li Qilin said that domestic demand has basically returned to the pre-epidemic level. Compared with the recovery in domestic demand,To exportThe strength has benefited private companies more and plays a bigger role in stimulating private investment. A major force supporting China’s exports this year is the gap in foreign demand, especially the gap in consumer goods.industryDownstream of the chain, they are mainly producing private companies. Therefore, the rebound in exports has allowed private companies to recover orders more quickly.

Also, this yearcreditBased on the more relaxed general environment, the policy has also increased theCreditAccording to the third quarter of the central bankcoinPolicy Implementation Report, End of SeptembermanufacturingThe growth rate of the balance of medium and long-term loans was 30.5%, recovering for 11 consecutive months; the balance of inclusive small and microcredits increased 29.6% year-on-year and the growth rate in the last 7 months reached a record since the statistics. “Orders are picking up, expectations are improving, plusCreditKey support policy, private investment will continue to repair. Li Qilin said.

　　There are many favorable conditions for continued growth in consumption.

NovemberTotal retail sales of social consumer goodsA 5% year-on-year increase, the growth rate accelerated by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. January to November,Investment in fixed assetsThe growth rate was 2.6%, 0.8 percentage points faster than that from January to October.import and exportGrowth maintained rapid growth, in November imports and exports increased 7.8% year-on-year and the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.

“Both production and demand are recovering steadily, and economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be faster than in the third quarter.” Fu Linghui said that from the next stage on, consumption remains an important engine supporting the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy.

It is worth noting that, driven by favorable policies and the release of demand for new models in the market, new energy vehicles have continued to grow rapidly since the second half of this year and their production has almost doubled in the years. last two months.

Fu Linghui said that there are many favorable conditions for sustained and stable consumption growth in the next stage. As the economy recovers,jobExpanding, conducive to increasingresidence income. At the same time, business efficiency is improving, and recently some policies have been introduced to promote consumption growth, such as promoting a new round of cars going to the countryside and replacing old appliances with new ones, actively promoting the innovative development of the catering consumption. Judging by these factors, there are bases and conditions for a sustained recovery in consumption.

“ExpandLarge consumptionDemand remains the key to economic recovery in the next stage. “Bank of MinshengLead researcher Wen Bin said that the national economy continues to recover, production continues to accelerate and demand is in an upward channel, but there is still a lot of room for improvement.macropoliticalWe must continue to strengthen support for the recovery of domestic demand and implement precise policies in key areas and weak links to promote an effective improvement in demand and smooth the national economic cycle.

　　A shift in growth momentum is emerging

“At present, the economic operation is gradually shifting from policy-driven growth to endogenous market growth.” Fu Linghui said that the cumulative growth rate of private investment from negative to positive reflects this characteristic.

MonitaInvestigation reportThe shift in economic growth momentum is believed to have started to take shape. The internal investment structure began to differentiate and the manufacturing industry grew rapidly. The consumer and service industries have improved even further, and consumer option in particular has maintained rapid growth. The vitality of the economy has gradually increased, and manufacturing and consumption have gradually become the mainstay of economic growth.

Zheng Houcheng, Director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, hopesindustryBusiness benefitsWith everything expected to remain high, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing next year will show optimism.

“There are many factors favorable to the economic operation next year, and the economy is more likely to gradually return to the level of potential growth.” Fu Linghui said that due to the low base this year, from the perspective of speed, the economic growth rate next year may be faster.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

(Responsible editor: DF380)