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Original title: The November “Report Card” Before the End of the 2020 Chinese Economy
XinhuanetBeijing, December 15 (Huang Hao) The warming signal emitted by the data of the national economic operation in the third quarterly report continued to strengthen in November, adding new growth engines to the final battle of the Chinese economy in 2020.
On the 15th, the National Statistics Office published the “Report Card” of the national economic operations in November. Key indicators such as the value added of industrial production, the service industry production index, total retail sales of consumer goods, investment in fixed products, and total imports and exports of goods have increased to varying degrees. Furthermore, the surveyed urban unemployment rate has continued to decline, consumer prices have fallen year on year, and the fall in factory prices for industrial producers has slowed.
“Based on November headline data, economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared to the third quarter.” Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next stage, the Chinese economy is expected to become the world’s only major economy. An economy that achieves positive growth.
The recovery in production is expanding and the balance is improving
In November, the added value of industrial companies above the designated size at the national level increased 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that of October; the month-on-month increase was 1.03%. From January to October, domestic industrial enterprises above the designated size achieved a total profit of 50.124 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time in the year. .
Fu Linghui analyzed that in 41 major industries, more than 70% of industries have achieved growth. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry has supported early-stage industrial growth. The consumer goods manufacturing industry has also recovered steadily recently. In November, the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased 3% year-on-year and continued to accelerate from the previous month, indicating that the recovery for the entire industry is improving.
From a service industry perspective, 7 of the top 8 industries in the service industry production index have achieved growth. In the early stage, some modern service industries have grown relatively fast, which has an obvious supportive effect on the service industry.
In the short term, producer services and relevant life services are also improving, indicating that the balance of the entire economic recovery is improving.
The recovery in demand is consolidating endogenous growth and continues to improve
In November, the national services industry production index increased 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from October. From January to November, the service industry production index fell 0.7% year-on-year and the rate of decline fell by 0.9 percentage points from January to October. From January to October, the operating income of companies in the service industry above the designated size increased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year.
“Whether it’s total retail sales of consumer goods or the growth rate of investment in fixed assets, they are steadily recovering.” Fu Linghui believes that communication equipment product sales above the quota increased by more than 40% in November, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, sports Entertainment products growth is more than 20%, and The two data sets overlap, indicating that the driving role of consumption is changing: from the initial support of the growth of basic life consumption, it has gradually returned to normal and mainly driven by improved consumption.
Increased vitality of market investment, private investment turned positive for the first time this year
In November, private investment increased 0.2% and the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year. From January to November, national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased 2.6% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that from January to October.
Statistics show that after the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first three quarters went from negative to positive, private investment growth also turned positive for the first time in November.
“This shows that the power of the market is increasing.” Fu Linghui said that in November, the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index reached new highs for the year, showing that the steady recovery in economic operations has been consolidated and improved.
In the next stage, consumption remains an important driver
In November, domestic consumer prices fell 0.5% YoY and rose 0.5% in October, fell 0.6% MoM. From January to November, domestic consumer prices increased 2.7% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points less than that of January to October.
“In November, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 5%, 0.6% faster than the previous month. From the perspective of the main product structure, the growth of the consumption of improved products was relatively rapid, most of which exceeded 20% “. Fu Linghui analyzed that “Of the leading consumer indicators for November, consumption continued to recover and market sales continued to rebound.”
He also analyzed the favorable factors for the future growth of consumption: “Employment is expanding, which favors the increase in income of residents. At the same time, we also see that the efficiency of companies is improving. In the first 10 months, the earnings of industrial enterprises above the designated size have turned positive year after year. The growth rate has reached double digits. In addition, some policies have recently been introduced to promote consumption growth, such as promoting a new round of automobiles that go to the countryside and the replacement of old appliances by new ones, and the active promotion of the innovative development of catering consumption. Based on these factors Look, there are bases and conditions for a sustained recovery of consumption “.
Fu Linghui predicted: “As the economy gradually returns to normal operation, I think it is worth hoping to maintain a good level of growth throughout the year. There are many factors that are favorable to our economic operation next year, and the economy will gradually return. to potential growth levels. ” . “
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