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Original caption: Brexit deal hopes to reignite Johnson still doesn’t rule out “hard Brexit”
Johnson firmly asserted that the UK will not return to the negotiating table after the Brexit transition period expires on December 31, and that it has fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit.
Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016, negotiations with the European Union have been full of twists and turns.
Last Sunday (December 13) was originally the last deadline for negotiations between the UK and the EU. Negotiators for the two sides did not reach an agreement on their differences until late at night on the 12th. When there is no hope, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Commission The 20-minute call from President Ursula Von Der Leyen at noon Sunday finally caused a change of course. After the call, the two sides announced that they agreed to “redouble their efforts” to extend the negotiation time and ordered the representatives of both sides to resume talks in Brussels.
The two sides did not specify the deadline for negotiations again, but the 31st of this month will be the last day of the transition period for Brexit. Johnson firmly stated that the UK will not return to the negotiating table after the Brexit transition period expires on December 31 and that it has fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit.
EU chief negotiator Barnier (Michel Barnier) said on the 14th that before presenting Brexit negotiations to special envoys from 27 EU member states, it is still possible to reach a new trade deal with the UK. Barnier then said that if a deal is to be reached on time, the next few days are crucial and the two main obstacles to fishing and a level playing field have yet to be overcome.
The postponement of negotiations and the revival of hopes to avoid a hard Brexit revitalized the market. On the 14th, the British pound rose to 1.34 against the US dollar. The euro rose slightly against the US dollar. The major UK stock indices rose one after another, including the FTSE 250 index, which is a medium-sized company with a domestic market. It rose about 1.2% in the first trades. Based on Morgan Stanley’s previous forecast, a no-deal Brexit will send the index down 10%. Big retailers hoping to avoid a messy Brexit, Dixons Carphone, Marks & Spencer, Frasers, and banking stocks Lloyds and NatWest were up more than 5%, with the FTSE 100 index also rebounding to a nine-month high last week.
Paul O’Connor, chief asset officer at Janus Henderson Investors, said the current UK-EU trade deal appears to be the most likely outcome, but even if a deal is reached, the UK will face a situation and challenges. very difficult economic. Economic shocks entail considerable economic costs in the medium term. So while the UK is expected to gain herd immunity from the vaccine program by the middle of next year, far outpacing that of most advanced economies, financial markets are unlikely to fully accept the positive description of the British economy until the fog of Brexit uncertainty clears.
The EU makes concessions and negotiations will continue after the deadline
In their joint statement agreeing to continue the trade negotiations, Johnson and Von der Lein wrote: “Although we are exhausted after almost a year of negotiations, despite the fact that we have missed the deadline time and again, we believe that we are responsible at this point. Keep working hard. Therefore, we have authorized our negotiators to continue negotiations to see if we can reach an agreement after this. “
Johnson rushed to Brussels to have dinner with von der Lein on Wednesday night, trying to redeem the desperate bargain. The dinner was obviously not pleasant and did not have the expected mitigating effect. Johnson complained that his several attempts in a week to speak directly or meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were rejected. Brussels insisted that London speak to the European Commission.
It is worth noting that some British media accused Merkel of being behind the hard line of the EU. A Downing Street source said she was “determined to let Britain crawl through broken glass” rather than compromise.
From the first moment of the Brexit negotiations, the treatment of Brexit on the European continent has been divided into two schools. One is represented by Germany, which tends to provide the UK with a tailor-made agreement, which is more advantageous than the agreement reached between the EU and Norway or even with Switzerland; the other is represented by France, which believes that the outcome of the negotiations should be detrimental to the UK and does so. By being punished, no other member state dares to rise up and divide the EU.
Therefore, Brexit supporters called Frenchman Barnier a “French anti-separatist general”, saying that once the main negotiator left and the negotiations were conducted by non-French officials, the results of the negotiations were “constructive.” . It is said that during the period in which Barnier was forced to leave the negotiating table to isolate himself because his colleague tested positive for the new crown, there was slight progress in the negotiation. But when he returned to the negotiating table and insisted that Britain abide by EU regulations after Brexit, the negotiating atmosphere became obviously hostile.
However, in the stalemate last week, the British believed that Merkel and Macron joined forces to obstruct the negotiations.
Conservative political commentator Douglas Murray bluntly stated that Merkel’s “arrogance” played a major role in this disastrous event of the Brexit negotiations.
He believed that the German Chancellor mistakenly believed that Britain would not leave the European Union without reaching an agreement, and he believed that Johnson was just bragging. “If she is a true pragmatist, she will work hard to make the negotiations go smoothly. A good and viable trade deal between Britain and Europe will benefit the entire European continent,” he said.
Interestingly, on this day last Sunday, von der Lein’s itinerary was to go to Paris to have dinner with Macron, while Merkel publicly declared in Berlin that the EU “should do everything possible” to reach an agreement.
Sensitive observers have noted that the EU has changed its original position in its decision not to abandon the negotiations, and the language used has been softened. Some British media cheered and said that EU officials finally realized that British sovereignty requirements needed to be respected.
There is news that has not been officially confirmed that the EU has dropped an automatic tariff requirement that joins changes in the British workforce, the environment and national subsidy rules. Once the EU determines that UK rules cause unfair trade, it can be implemented automatically. Tariff penalties. Johnson has said that no British prime minister can accept this clause.
As a substitute, negotiators are considering establishing an independent arbitration system, which can be activated if differences in the rules lead to serious trade distortions.
Johnson explained of the resumption of negotiations on Sunday night: “I think the UK should keep trying, and this is what the British people want it to do … We will keep working hard, trying wholeheartedly and being the best. Creative is possible, but what we can’t do is compromise. The fundamental nature of Brexit is compromise. We have to control the law and control the fishing. It’s very, very simple. I think our friends get it. “
But Johnson also said he still believes that “the most likely thing to happen now is, of course, that we should prepare for a no-deal Brexit.” He insisted that trading with the EU under the terms of the World Trade Organization would provide “clarity and simplicity” with advantages.
Iain Duncan Smith, a senior member of the British Conservative Party, also said that members of the British House of Commons hope that Brexit negotiations can continue, although the time required to review the deal has been severely compressed; As long as the agreement is reached before the 31st, the approval process is allowed. Even short delays are acceptable.
He reminded European leaders that Britain is “seriously considering” leaving without reaching any agreement.
Contingency plan without agreement
On the 13th of this month, the British government announced the “No Deal Brexit Contingency Plan” to avoid the chaos caused by the No Deal Brexit and add another bargaining chip to the negotiations with the EU: “We are serious.”
In addition, the British Ministry of Defense confirmed that it will send four Royal Navy patrol boats equipped with machine guns and artillery, and advanced military helicopters are also on standby to help carry out relevant maritime surveillance. Once the EU does not reach an agreement before December 31st, the right to arrest fishermen from France and other EU member states who illegally entered British waters after that.
To protect important supplies of food and medicine after Brexit, Johnson announced that he will lead a new “supercommittee” that will operate in parallel with the “Brexit no-deal” readiness team chaired by Cabinet Affairs Minister Michael Gove.
According to the plan, the British government has canceled the Christmas holidays of some high officials in important or sensitive positions; in the coming days war exercises will be carried out under Brexit conditions without agreement to simulate the response in the worst case; important drugs and medical equipment will be required. And vaccine providers store enough drugs in a safe place for six weeks and move more than 3,000 trucks each week to transport essential drugs and medical equipment to all parts of the UK;Agricultural productsOn-site exercises transported from the European Union to the UK; supermarkets ordered to prepare for a few months of vegetable supply disruption; by March next year, 1,100 customs officers will be added to the border; border operations centers will be established and on duty 24 hours a day to resolve traffic congestion; fish exports The service agency will issue a new “fishing certificate”.
Although Johnson approved the cabinet drafting a billion-pound bailout plan to support industries hardest hit by a no-deal Brexit, British businesses worry that the new trade bureaucracy will stifle import operations and export and will cause chaos in the port. It’s time to adapt to the new rules.
Adam Marshal, Managing Director of the British Chamber of Commerce, said: “This is a very frustrating time for businesses. If it takes a few more hours or days to make a difference, keep working hard and agree to provide Clarity and certainty “.
Helen Dickinson, executive director of the British Retail Federation, said that every moment of Brexit uncertainty makes it difficult for companies to make effective preparations for January 1. If no deal is reached, the British public will face more than £ 3 billion in food tariffs, and retailers will have to pass some of these costs on to consumers.
(Author: Yan Division Editor: He Jia)
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