Steel prices have not risen as much as iron ore prices, and some steel companies have gone from profits to losses.

Original title: Steel prices have not risen as much as iron ore prices, and some steel companies have gone from profit to loss.

Recently, due to the expected reduction in the international supply of iron ore and strong domestic demand, its spot andfuturespriceIt has been at a high level for seven consecutive years, instead since NovemberprofitAfter the rebound, conventional steelproductThe price of steel fell again, leading to related steelcompanyThe company’s production profit has been greatly reduced.

Everbright Futures Black SeriesDirector of researchQiu Yuechengto acceptA China Business News reporter said in an interview that the recent rise in iron ore prices has had a major impact on the profits of domestic mills. Judging from the latest prices, the cash earnings of some companies have reachedLostState, many qualified companies have begun to adjust their production lines, hoping to maintain a breakeven point.

Last Friday, the Platts iron ore index surpassed US $ 145 / t in one go, an increase of more than 50% since the beginning of the year, a record in the last eight years, while the futures of the national iron oreMain forceThe highest I2101 intraday contract also rose to 993 yuan / ton, a record since its listing in 2013. After the market opened today, it fell slightly compared to last week, but still closed at an all-time high of 967 , 5 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 44% during the year.

Due to the current iron ore indexPricesModel, futuresmarketThe price increase quickly spread to the place. According to data from Fastmarkets MB, iron ore with 62% iron content was imported to North China last Friday at a price of $ 145.01 a ton.Agreement, An increase of 5.8% from Thursday’s price, and also reached the highest level of iron ore prices since March 2013, expanding this year’s iron ore price increase to 57%.

Since last month, mills’ profits have rebounded.Raw MaterialsAs a result of the increased enthusiasm for purchases, iron ore inventories in ports have fallen for three consecutive weeks, from a high of 128 million tonnes on November 6 to 124 million tonnes on December 4. MysteelInvestigationThe data also shows that at the end of last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 163 domestic steel plants was 67.27%, an increase of 2.14% over the same period last year. The average daily production of cast iron is 2,461,300 tons,Chain relationshipAn increase of 22,100 tons,I andAn increase of 170,000 tons. Pig iron and crude steel production is at relatively high levels during the same period of the year.

However, as the weather turns cold and outdoor construction is gradually suspended, the demand for construction steel, such as rebar, will enter the traditional off-season before the Spring Festival, and the increase Future pricing will be limited. Compared with the continued rise in iron ore prices at the raw material end, conventional steel productsProfit marginsIt was continuously squeezed. According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Networks, on December 4, Shanghai rebar traded at 3,970 yuan / ton, 30 yuan less than the day before. Since November the price has risen only 5% and this year it has only risen 6%.

“Currently, the profit from rebar production is basically close to the breakeven line. According to estimates, the East China steel plant has recently made a profit of only about 100 yuan / ton, while many plants from steel in the northcostTo calculate, the cash profit already has losses. Qiu Yuecheng said: “Therefore, qualified steel mills may recently reduce or revise rebar production lines, focusing on coils, cold-rolled products and other more profitable products. Supply of rebar can be expected to be somewhat. in the future. decrease. “

In fact, related trends appeared last week. Data from Mysteel last week showed that weekly rebar production declined slightly, the decline in social inventories continued to decline, and the increase in factory inventory expanded. Among them, yarn production decreased to 3.5986 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 33,300 tonnes. In addition, the demand for wire gauges and the start of cement have continued to fall, indicating that the demand for domestic wire has entered the off-season, and inventory will move to the accumulation stage next week and prices at counted are still under pressure.

According to incomplete statistics from the reporter, the main listed companies related to rebar includeFangda special steel(600507.SH) 、Sangang minguang(002110.SZ) 、Xingang(600782.SH) 、Shougang(000959.SZ) and so on. According to the 2019 corporate annual report,Fangda special steel、Sangang minguang、ShougangRodOperating incomeThey represent more than 30%. The 8 previous steel companies currently announcedprofit predictionexceptFangda special steelAlso, they are expected to return to their mother in 2020.Net profitThere was a year-on-year decrease.

(Source: China Business News)

(Responsible editor: DF512)