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Original title: This is the most important thing in the world today, and the black swan can arrive at any moment!
Source: Niu Tanqin
(One)
I feel like this is the most important thing in the world today, not one of them.
Due to Brexit, another moth came out. The result: the black swan can appear at any time.
Speaking of which, this is really a “western divorce”:First, after three years of tearing, a place of chicken feathers, and finally on January 31 of this year, the official announcement: We are leaving; then there is a cooling off period of 11 months. Logically, when the date expires on December 31 of this year, we will officially go to get the certificate and break; Now that the two sides have collapsed again, it is very likely that they will not join the certificate …
The consequences, you know.
There really isn’t much time left for the UK and the EU.
Time is very tight, if no agreement is reached on December 31, the UK and the EU will really fall apart and return to the WTO framework, the border inspection of the border inspection, the tariff of the fee.
In other words, originally a couple, they completely tore their faces like passersby.
It is certainly a disaster for the already bad British economy, the EU economy and even the world economy. It is no exaggeration to say that it is a black swan, and it is big and fat.
Both parties try to avoid the worst outcome.
At the end of November, the two sides started talking, but sadly a member of the EU negotiating team was diagnosed. To avoid panic, the two sides switched to online conversations.
Online discussions weren’t addictive. On November 28, the EU team went to London to resume face-to-face negotiations.
But after talking for a whole week, the conversation was dry and dry, and in the end, they broke up.
Three central questions:
Fishing
Level playing field,
Performance management.
The two parties refused to make concessions and could not agree at all.
in factRipped and torn, on the surface it is for profit, it is a lack of confidence at all.
The EU does not believe in the British at all. According to foreign media, the EU believes that the British can do anything after Brexit, such as slashing social welfare and lowering standards of environmental protection. If it does, how can we Europeans compete?
So in the UK, you must have a guarantee clause. But the British are very aggrieved, so why wear colored glasses to look at me? These terms are too humiliating.
When it comes to the fishing industry, Britain and France are more to blame.
The United Kingdom is an island country with a vast sea area. The European Union insists that it can leave the European Union, but our fishermen have the right to continue fishing in the 200-nautical-mile area of the United Kingdom, which is a traditional fishing ground.
Britain jumped, why? He misled people too much. Since Brexit, we have been a sovereign and independent country.
But it is not easy to mess with French farmers. Anyone who cares about France knows that very often tractors, harvesters, cows and sheep entered the city of Paris. Don’t think this is a joke, French farmers often do it. Macron has been around cattle and sheep before, and if you’re on your doorstep with a bunch of dead fish, the taste will be really off-putting …
Therefore, France is determined not to let it go. French Minister for European Affairs, Clement Bona, promised: “I want to tell our fishermen, manufacturers and citizens that we will not accept agreements with unfavorable conditions.”
If you disagree in Britain, we will use the veto.
Great Britain and France, the old enemies hit the bar.
(two)
The EU should see through the British.
No matter how loud the cries of Brexit are, once the British are truly liberated, they cannot get rid of them.
Originally, it was gentlemanly behavior to break the peace and happily say goodbye.
However, the British are not gentlemen. This Western-style divorce lasted over three years, with climaxes, feathers, black swans flying frequently, and financial markets going higher and lower than monkeys, which is really telling.
This kind of desire to get rid of him last year prompted French Minister for European Affairs Natalie Loisso to hold back, scoffing:
I finally decided to call my cat “Brexit” … He meows like crazy every morning and wakes me up because he wants to go out. But when I opened the door, he stood there always doubting. When I put him outside the door, he looked angry …
The French are so bad and the British are very angry. But the Europeans clapped and spoke vividly.
Earlier this year, Brexit was finally announced; who knows, by the end of the year, the old problems have returned.
On Friday, December 4, the two sides spoke on three key issues and the EU delegation returned home directly.
On Saturday, December 5, Johnson had an urgent phone call with the president of the European Commission, Von der Lein: No, we must continue talking.
The reason is simple: If we don’t hurry, and if we finally negotiate a total collapse, the trillion US dollar trade between the two parties will face a major shock. This year the world has been unfavorable and the UK and EU economies are in recession. If this happens again, the financial market will definitely be a tsunami and the black swan will return.
So, on Sunday, December 7, don’t take a break, you must return to the negotiating table to continue the discussion.
This time, the British are coming to Brussels to speak.
I saw a British source describe it like this: This negotiation is like the last time a dice is rolled …
Why is it so difficult to talk about it?
Because it is more difficult to touch interests than to touch souls, not to mention political calculations.
For Johnson, he must show that he resolutely defended the sovereignty of the United Kingdom, otherwise Brexit will be a real loss, and the British will not agree, and his status can also be suspended.
The EU must tell the world: I have taken a firm stance against the UK. If you want to retire, you will retire. If you retire, there will be benefits. So how can the EU be confused? A group of little brothers immediately clamored to be separated.
So while these three core issues, especially the fisheries issue, are actually very small compared to the trillion-dollar trade volume between the two parties, they have become a hindrance.
In this world, without trust, it is difficult to talk about anything.
So can the British do things without procrastinating?
From a historical perspective, it is suffocating! Cleanliness has never been characteristic of the British. Therefore, he sees that he must lay the groundwork for his withdrawal from Hong Kong; the withdrawal of Palestine and Israel will immediately leave a Palestinian problem; the withdrawal of India and Pakistan will lead to one war after another …
The negotiations continue and the evildoers have their own problems.
To get the best result, both parties took a step back and reached an agreement, and everyone was happy.
In the worst case, the table was thrown, the financial market and the tsunami hit.
For China, these have nothing to do with us, but we have to be more vigilant. After all, 2020 is the last 20 days, and the new black swans are failing. No matter how distant we are, we are also part of the world, and we must be fully prepared psychologically.
Throw it, you guys keep throwing it!
